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Matt Babich

Fantasy Football Analyst
@babich_matt10

Matt Babich is a fantasy football expert who specializes as a writer and podcaster. He’s played fantasy football for 11 years. Matt has developed and tweaked his process over the years. In that time, Matt has ventured from standard redraft to dynasty, daily, best ball, and even the Scott Fish Bowl. With a background in Industrial Engineering and Data Analytics, he specializes in analytical content. His eccentric and over-dramatic personality, combined with a love for obscure references, drives a plethora of entertaining takes. He is truly a rising star in the fantasy football industry.

He joined PlayerProfiler as an analyst and formation charter in 2021. This started Matt on his writing journey by covering Monday and Thursday Night Football matchups as well as weekly trade targets. He continued by participating in writing player bios, player previews for the World Famous Draft Kit, and providing full coverage of the 2023 NFL Free Agency period. This experience has molded him into the fantasy football expert he is today. Currently, he has a running series where he breaks down every Thursday Night Matchup and co-hosts the Writer’s Roundtable podcast with Seth Diewold where the writers of PlayerProfiler gather to share their research and boldest takes!

Matt currently lives in Dallas, Texas and works as the Lead Data Analyst for Veryable, a Manufacturing & Logistics startup.

Articles

2023 NFL Franchise Tag Winners and Losers

by Matt Babich
The NFL Franchise Tags have been placed, and the teams now have some decisions to make. Which NFL teams gained the most after tagging their impact players? How does this affect the players going forward, and will there be a long-term deal for Lamar Jackson or Saquon Barkley?
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Super Bowl Novelty Prop Picks

by Matt Babich
A big part of the Super Bowl is the spectacle and the props market. Which non-football, novelty props should we be aware of in this Super Bowl? Is there an edge to be gained from betting on any of them?
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NFL Free Agency Preview Part 1: Quarterbacks - 2023

by Matt Babich
NFL Free Agency is always full of surprising signings, both good and bad. The first part of this four-part 2023 Free Agency series features the quarterback position and highlights some blockbuster names including Lamar Jackson. Will Jackson be on the move this offseason or will the Ravens sign him to a long term contract? Will Daniel Jones stay in New York? Who will the Jets target as their next quarterback?
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Week 17 TNF Showdown: Cowboys at Titans

by Matt Babich
This is the TNF Showdown! This week's matchup features the Dallas Cowboys traveling to face the Tennessee Titans. What do fantasy gamers need to know entering Championship Week? What bets should bettors be making before this Thursday Night game kicks off?
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Week 15 TNF Showdown: 49ers at Seahawks

by Matt Babich
It's easy to get enamored by late-round rookie quarterbacks. They always have a certain fire, and when they deliver in the spotlight America falls in love. Brock Purdy is the next candidate to test the waters of  "the Tom Brady trajectory." He produced 15.3 and 21.7 fantasy points in his two games as the team's signal caller. Completing 70.7-percent of his passes with a 90.9 True Passer Rating, he's quickly settling into Kyle Shanahan's system.
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Week 14 TNF Showdown: Raiders at Rams

by Matt Babich
It's time Derek Carr gets his flowers. Behind the disaster that is the Raiders, he is averaging 19.27 (No. 11) fantasy points per game and has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game since week 9. What he lacks in efficiency, he makes up for with his aggression. He's airing it out with 9.1 (No. 5) Air Yards per Attempt. With 30 (No. 3) Money Throws, we're even seeing a clutch gene from Carr. He's been automatic since week 9 and is a top-12 option against a Rams defense that has given up nearly 20 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks.
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Week 13 TNF Showdown: Bills at Patriots

by Matt Babich
Josh Allen managers can rest easy knowing his UCL injury isn't the detriment to his fantasy production that many feared it would be. Producing 21.2 fantasy points per game with two games of 40+ pass attempts since the scare, he's confidently the rest-of-season QB1. He's still not afraid to run. He carried the rock 10 times for 78 yards and a score in Week 12. Against a Patriots defense that has allowed solid fantasy performances to talented quarterbacks, Allen is a top-10 option.
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Week 12 TNF Showdown: Thanksgiving Starts, Sits, and Picks

by Matt Babich
The Week 12 TNF Showdown features three matchups: Giants at Cowboys, Bills at Lions, and Patriots at Vikings. This year's fantasy slate is chalk-full of talent. The Buffalo Bills high powered offense travels to Detroit to face a Lions defense giving up big plays at a high rate. The Dallas Cowboys face off against the New York Giants in a divisional matchup as Dak Prescott looks to continue his streak of top-10 performances. Finally, the night will be wrapped up with a sneaky shootout, where the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings both look to spark their offenses. This week I'll be short and to-the-point, giving you the starts, sits, and picks for each of these matchups.
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Week 11 TNF Showdown: Titans at Packers

by Matt Babich
The Titans coaching staff are experts in ruining a party. They killed Tennessee's Tanne-thrill ride when they thought A.J. Brown could be replaced by Treylon Burks. Tannehill's 13 (No. 25) fantasy points per game are the lowest mark he's seen since his 2012 rookie season. The arm talent is still there. He's delivering a 7.8 (No. 13) Accuracy Rating and a 79.7-percent (No. 11) Catchable Pass Rate. Running under 24 pass plays per game, the veteran has only eclipsed 200 yards in three of his seven games this season. In those each of those games, he's produced at least 19 fantasy points. Green Bay has kept anemic passing offenses at bay and can't stop the run. This is the perfect formula for a disappointing low-end QB2 performance from Tannehill. Tannehill has big game upside, and he's a boom-or-bust start in deeper 2QB/Superflex leagues.
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Week 10 TNF Showdown: Falcons vs Panthers

by Matt Babich
Marcus Mariota's middle name must be 'miracle' because not many predicted he'd be the Falcons starting quarterback this long. Despite 30 (No. 12) Deep Ball Attempts, he throws one of the worst deep balls in the league. He missed Kyle Pitts for a walk-in long ball by a mile on Sunday. He's the poster child for an inefficient backup, yet he produces 0.64 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Dropback. While the Falcons run near a league-low in pass attempts, it's worth noting that Mariota has thrown for over 300 air yards in two straight close Game Scripts, including a game vs Carolina. It might be ugly, and there will be low points, but Mariota is a QB2 with a big-play upside and a rushing role. I expect a QB2 performance in what should be a slower grudge match on a slow week.
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Week 9 TNF Showdown: Eagles at Texans

by Matt Babich
The Week 9 TNF Showdown features the Eagles at the Texans. I'll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. Without further ado, let's see what Philadelphia and Houston have in store for us as the Eagles look to continue their reign of perfection.
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Week 8 TNF Showdown: Ravens at Buccaneers

by Matt Babich
After a scorching start to the season, Lamar Jackson's production took a nosedive. To put his poor performance into the appropriate context, Jackson has averaged fewer Fantasy Points per Game than Marcus Mariota since Week 4 (14.68 to 14.80 FPPG, respectively). Talk about a spooky season. The advanced metrics will tell you he's playing well, and he is, but the Raven's offense has been uncharacteristically sluggish. After losing their second straight game, this team needs a spark, and they'll find it tonight. Tampa Bay wields a near league-worst red zone defense, which will give Jackson ample opportunity to find the endzone.
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Week 7 TNF Showdown: Saints at Cardinals

by Matt Babich
The Saint's 2022 QB Carousel has been frustrating for fantasy gamers, and the picture isn't getting any clearer this week. On another short weeks rest, head coach Dennis Allen states that he wants to get Jameis Winston "...fully healthy and go from there," and appeared pleased with Andy Dalton's performances. The likely event is that Winston is active again as an "emergency quarterback" and Dalton gets the start. The human Red Panda is an effective real-life game manager but not an effective fantasy quarterback. He's posted a season-high 13 fantasy points, so it's best to look for other options even in 2QB leagues.
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Week 6 TNF Showdown: Commanders at Bears

by Matt Babich
The Week 6 TNF Showdown features the Commanders at the Bears. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. Without further ado, let’s see what Washington and Chicago have in store for us in what should be another slow and ugly Thursday night matchup. Advanced stats and analytics […]
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Week 5 TNF Showdown: Colts at Broncos

by Matt Babich
Three seasons, three mediocre quarterbacks. Matt Ryan completes Indianapolis's Knights of the Mediocre Roundtable. His above-average accuracy metrics are dulled by his inability to push the ball past the sticks. Ryan's 2.5 (No. 26 of qualified quarterbacks) Deep Ball Attempts per Game and 6.4 (No. 29) Air Yards per Attempt are both worse than Phillip Rivers in the final season of his career. With nine (No. 1) fumbles and five (No. 2) interceptions, Ryan is rapidly approaching a 2020 Drew Brees-level of bad.
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Week 4 TNF Showdown: Dolphins at Bengals

by Matt Babich
Buffalo's lethal defense brought Tua Tagovailoa back to earth following his show-stopping Week 2 performance, limiting the Dolphins to 186 passing yards on 18 attempts. His output should have been far worse. It looked as if he would not return from the gruesome head injury he suffered late in the second quarter. The Bengals defense offers quite the exploitable matchup as they have struggled to slow down inferior offenses in three straight weeks. Tua is proving to be one of the most accurate passers in the league, and will be a top-12 option tonight.
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Week 3 TNF Showdown: Steelers vs Browns

by Matt Babich
Welcome to the newest edition of TNF Showdown which features the Steelers at the Browns. I'll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. This Week 3 TNF Showdown features the Steelers at the Browns. Without further ado, let's see what the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns have in store for us as both teams look to bounce back from tough Week 2 losses.
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Week 2 TNF Showdown: Chargers at Chiefs

by Matt Babich
Welcome to the newest edition of TNF Showdown which features Chargers at Chiefs. I'll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. Without further ado, let's see what the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs have in store for us in what will be a pivotal battle for control of the AFC West.
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Week 1 TNF Showdown: Buffalo Bills At Los Angeles Rams

by Matt Babich
Josh Allen attempts to lead the Bills prolific offense to an opening night victory against the defending champs. He has at his disposal a duo of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis who've compiled 31 touchdowns over the last two seasons. They patched arguably their only offensive hole this offseason with the drafting of James Cook, who will immediately see a fantasy relevant role. The defending champs are undefeated on opening day under head coach Sean McVay. With Allen Robinson now in Matthew Stafford's arsenal, this offense is not going to skip a beat from 2021. In fact, they'll only be sharper. Cam Akers returns to the lineup fully recovered. With a rejuvenated offense and an undermanned Bills secondary, the Rams are in a great spot to keep the streak alive.
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Playerprofiler's Guide to Advanced Stats & Metrics Vol. 1: Running Backs

by Matt Babich
This guide is meant to de-mystify PlayerProfiler's highlighted metrics and help you understand what drives running back success in fantasy football. The metrics are split into six sections, which I'll cover individually: Opportunity, Productivity, Advanced Receiving, Efficiency, College Production & Workout Metrics, and Formation-Specific.
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Gone Fishin': A Scott Fish Bowl Draft Recap

by Matt Babich
The time has come yet again for analysts, fans, and celebrities to come together and compete in THE premiere pro-am fantasy charity tournament, the Scott Fish Bowl. Founded in 2010 by devy-inventor Scott Fish, the Scott Fish Bowl is a place for community, philanthropy, and adapting to a very unique rule-set. This format pushes quarterbacks and pass-catchers (most specifically, elite tight ends) into a higher tier of value. Because of this, it's vital to secure at least one top-10 quarterback and either a dominant tight end, or a pass-catching workhorse back. Receivers are the most valuable in the early-middle to middle rounds because of the positional advantage that you can gain by prioritizing other positions in the first few rounds. Target hogs that are itching to explode like CeeDee Lamb and D.J. Moore are ripe for the taking in the early-middle rounds. The drop off in value is much steeper at quarterback, running back, and tight end in this range. Overall, the objective of this draft was to capitalize on value discounts while putting together a diverse build catered to the unique scoring format.
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Week 17 MNF Showdown: Cleveland Browns At Pittsburgh Steelers

by Matt Babich
The Browns can officially chalk up their season as lost. Baker Mayfield is playing through injuries and pumping out inefficient performances, even making Jarvis Landry an unreliable fantasy play. The teams production, as always, is propped up by the rushing duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Both backs are playable in fantasy, but it's Chubb who has been putting out league winning performances over the fantasy playoffs. Tonight marks Ben Roethlisberger's last home game as a Steeler, and this team is not going to let their legend down. Najee Harris, while not an efficient back, has done a fine job of moving the chains and a great job of scoring fantasy points. Diontae Johnson is having a career year and dominates the opportunity and production in the Pittsburgh passing game. Finally, Pat Freiermuth returns from injury and steps right back into his red zone threat / safety net role.
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Week 16 MNF Showdown: Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints

by Matt Babich
The Miami Dolphins are on a six game winning streak and find themselves one win away from defying the impossible and joining the playoff picture. Tua Tagovailoa is on fire and has jumpstarted this offense. Jaylen Waddle looks to continue his impressive rookie season while DeVante Parker continues his career resurgence. Finally, Duke Johnson has finally been given the workhorse role he deserves. The New Orleans Saints have been trending down week after week, and this matchup won't get any easier for them as they are down to starting rookie Ian Book at quarterback. The rookie is unlikely to spark the passing game, making Marquez Callaway and Tre'Quan Smith very avoidable. On the flip side, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will be relied on heavily for offensive production, giving Kamara RB1 upside.
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Week 16 TNF Showdown: San Francisco 49ers At Tennessee Titans

by Matt Babich
The San Francisco 49ers are rolling and looking to ride into the playoffs on a high note. Jimmy G has been playing solid football, leading George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel to fantasy success. Jeff Wilson showed he's more than capable of filling in for Elijah Mitchell. They come into the day obvious favorites against the struggling Titans. The Titans are depleted and falling apart. The team has been ravaged by injuries, forcing D'Onta Foreman and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to take on significant roles. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both look to return tonight, but their upside is limited with how badly Ryan Tannehill has been playing. The Titans find themselves, rightfully, as home dogs in an uphill matchup.
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Week 15 MNF Showdown: Minnesota Vikings At Chicago Bears

by Matt Babich
The Minnesota Vikings are still in the playoff hunt and need a win to stay alive. Kirk Cousins has been accurate and productive, leading the league in Money Throws. He has pushed Justin Jefferson past the 1200 receiving yard mark already, and now supports K.J. Osborn in place of Adam Thielen. As always, Dalvin Cook dominates backfield touches and continues to smash through defenses. The Chicago Bears are still a dumpster-fire, but a prettier looking one. Justin Fields is improving and showing a Konami skillset, but the only receiver he has made fantasy relevant has been Darnell Mooney. Allen Robinson sees a healthy Target Share, but hasn't been able to convert on the opportunities. On the ground, David Montgomery looks to repeat his fantasy performance of 2020.
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Week 15 TNF Showdown: Kansas City Chiefs At Los Angeles Chargers

by Matt Babich
Remember when the Chiefs stunk? It seems like forever ago, but now the re-juiced Kansas City defense is scorching hot. Patrick Mahomes is still struggling to put up fantasy points, but Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been revived. Finally, Clyde Edwards-Helaire looks to stay hot with his 4th straight top-24 RB performance. The Chargers are surging and only one game back from the AFC West lead. Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler are red hot and have become one of the league's best QB-RB combos. Keenan Allen has been having a phenomenal year, and returns to action this week coming off of the COVID-list. Finally, Mike Williams continues to try to work back to his elite early season production level.
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Week 14 MNF Showdown: Los Angeles Rams At Arizona Cardinals

by Matt Babich
The Rams have had an up and down season and look to turn the tides in the NFC West. Matthew Stafford has been elite and has pushed Cooper Kupp to WR1 heights. Odell Beckham has fit right in and has even let Van Jefferson to maintain his role. The biggest surprise of this team has been Sony Michel, who is a top-15 play yet again with Darrell Henderson sidelined. The Arizona Cardinals have the best record in the NFL. The defense is rolling, Kyler Murray looked electric in his return, and James Conner has been dominant in Chase Edmonds's absence. DeAndre Hopkins, the only consistently reliable fantasy option at receiver, was eased in last week as he recovers from a groin injury. He looks to get back to normal usage this week.
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Week 14 TNF Showdown: Pittsburgh Steelers At Minnesota Vikings

by Matt Babich
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a win, but are a struggling team. Ben Roethlisberger can't push the ball downfield and Najee Harris has been productive but inefficient. Big Ben's play continues to drag the offense down, and only Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris are reliable assets. The Minnesota Vikings are led by an under-appreciated quarterback, Kirk Cousins. Cousins has been pinpoint accurate and incredibly productive, propelling Justin Jefferson to another mind melting season. Without Adam Thielen, big boosts in opportunity will go to K.J. Osborn and Tyler Conklin. They'll rely more on their stable running game to get the job done tonight.
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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 14

by Matt Babich
Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are two upper echelon Konami QBs. Neither of these players are true "buy low" candidates, but their values have dipped recently. Both players are elite rushers and, while they aren't the most efficient passers, they have the capability to explode through the air. Having an elite Konami QB is the key to winning championships, and this is your last chance to secure one. Don't look now, but Elijah Mitchell is a workhorse back. He's received at least 25 touches in three straight games, and set a career high Snap Share in week 13. He has the athletic profile, he's in the right offense, and he's getting all of the carries. He'll miss this week with a concussion, but after that it's wheels up. Mitchell is a top five back for the rest of the season, and the season's final buy of the week.
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Week 13 MNF Showdown: New England Patriots At Buffalo Bills

by Matt Babich
The New England Patriots are looking to plant their flag as the best team in the AFC. Mac Jones continues to improve and has established connections with Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne. Against the Bills, they'll look to rely on Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson to propel the offense through the run game. The Bills have been inconsistent, and have dropped some bad games. Recently, Josh Allen and the offense have been rolling. Stefon Diggs has gotten back on track, and Cole Beasley has jumped back into the mix of production. The surprise of this team has been the resurgence of running back Matt Breida, who has quickly earned a significant role.
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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 13

by Matt Babich
Aaron Jones and D'Andre Swift are both efficient runners PPR monsters. They both currently sit in the top 10 in Target Share and Yards Created. Jones is the RB2 version of Swift, as Swift is seeing absurd touch totals. Both players, at their respective price, can turn your team from a dark horse to a championship favorite. Jarvis Landry and Brandon Aiyuk are two receivers who are potential league winners. With the Browns now without Odell Beckham, Landry is seeing alpha-level Target Shares and will be the main focus of the passing game. Aiyuk has turned his slump around in a major way and now won't have Deebo Samuel alongside him for the foreseeable future.
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Week 12 MNF Showdown: Seattle Seahawks At Washington Football Team

by Matt Babich
The Seattle Seahawks are desperate for a turn-around. Russell Wilson hasn't been the same since his injury, but Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have still churned out usable weeks. Against a poor Washington defense, this team is set up for the perfect rebound game. The Washington Football Team are on a 2 game win streak. Taylor Heinicke looks to rely on Terry McLaurin and his now healthy receiving core to put up another solid fantasy performance. In the ground game, Antonio Gibson is finally healthy and once again dominating backfield touches.
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Week 11 MNF Showdown: New York Giants At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by Matt Babich
The New York Giants simply don't deserve to be on Primetime TV. Daniel Jones is an erradic mess, and has struggled to get the ball to playmakers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney. The offense looks to turn things around with Saquon Barkley hopeful to return to the lineup. Tampa Bay is in a slump, but the Giants are the perfect get-right opponent. Tom Brady is still racking up elite production and helping Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have solid seasons. Leonard Fournette has blossomed as a bell-cow, racking up 15 fantasy point performances. The Bucs looks to gain Rob Gronkowski back to the slew of playmakers. =
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Week 11 TNF Showdown: New England Patriots At Atlanta Falcons

by Matt Babich
The Patriots are on a roll. Mac Jones has been the best 2021 rookie quarterback and continues to improve weekly. The offense is supported by bell-cow back Damien Harris, while Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne fight for weekly relevancy. The Falcons are a mess. They're struggling on both sides and missing talent. Kyle Pitts is reliable and Wayne Gallman is a solid temporary option. Matt Ryan, however, struggles to consistently produce at a high level.
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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 11

by Matt Babich
Russell Wilson is a dual-threat gunslinger who's addicted to elite fantasy performances. He face-planted on his return from injury, which creates the perfect bye window going into a league-winning schedule. Odell Beckham is going to be heavily involved in the Rams offense. He is a home-run swing, but his potential is worth the risk. A.J. Dillon is a size-speed specimen, stepping into a bell-cow role. Though Aaron Jones will likely return this season, Dillon is going to smash in the meantime and stay relevant when Jone returns. Whether you're a contender or looking for a playoff push, Dillon can give your team the edge it needs.
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Week 10 MNF Showdown: Los Angeles Rams At San Fransisco 49ers

by Matt Babich
The Rams come in with one of the league's heaviest hitting offenses. Matthew Stafford leads the league in passing yards, Cooper Kupp is having a career year, and Darrell Henderson has been an efficient replacement for Cam Akers. Overall, the Rams are the better team in this matchup and should win the game. Jimmy Garoppolo looks to continue his hot steak, as he gets George Kittle and the revamped Brandon Aiyuk back for the second time. In addition, Deebo Samuel is having a breakout season. The 49ers can move the ball through the air, but will first look to establish the run with Elijah Mitchell.
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Week 10 TNF Showdown: Baltimore Ravens At Miami Dolphins

by Matt Babich
The Ravens are coming in fresh off of a rebound victory. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense have had their struggles, but have lit up the field and produced three elite scorers at their position. Expect the offense to stay hot versus an average Dolphins defense. The Dolphins are a mess. The offense has been consistently missing key playmakers. This has forced targets to Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki. The fins will look to turn things around against a beatable Ravens defense.
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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 10

by Matt Babich
David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift are both workhorse running backs who are involved in the passing game, but play at two very different levels. Montgomery is an RB2 with RB1 upside, while Swift is an elite bell-cow and a league winner. The Brandon Aiyuk comeback game has finally arrived. He ran a route on all of Jimmy Garoppolo's 40 pass attempts, and set season highs in all of PlayerProfiler's listed box score stats. Aiyuk is returning to normal usage, out of Shanahan's dog house, and this week's buy of the week.
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Week 9 MNF Showdown: Chicago Bears At Pittsburgh Steelers

by Matt Babich
The Chicago Bears have disappointed yet again, but look to continue to improve. Justin Fields looks to advance on his breakout performance. Darnell Mooney continues to dominate opportunity, while Allen Robinson continues to disappear. Look for the Bears to have a decent night against the Steelers. Big Ben is dust, but has been able to support Diontae Johnson to a WR1 statusl. Najee Harris has been given an insane amount of opportunity, and has been one of the most reliable fantasy options of 2021. The Steelers overall have a better team than Chicago, but have been known to fade offensively.
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Week 9 TNF Showdown: New York Jets At Indianapolis Colts

by Matt Babich
The Jets pulled off a miracle last week, but are not a good team. Mike White looks to be serviceable, but will rely on Michael Carter and Ty Johnson heavily to move the chains. Jamison Crowder is the only Jets receiver who will see enough opportunity to be relevant. The Colts are going to handily win this game, and Jonathan Taylor is going to put the offense on his back yet again. He's totaled over 200 yards in 5 straight games. Carson Wentz remains a middle-of-the-road option, and Michael Pittman is the Colts' alpha.
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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 9

by Matt Babich
Justin Jefferson and Mike Williams are two receivers who have nuclear upside and significant opportunity shares, but have had somewhat of a slump the past few weeks. Both of their teams throw at a high rate and perform better in games where they're heavily featured. This is the time to take advantage of the value dip. Jerry Jeudy came off of IR last week and had a solid first outing. He led the team in receptions and logged over 70-percent of the snaps. Jeudy is a dynamic play-maker that suits Teddy Bridgewater's style of play. You can aquire him now at his near-lowest value.
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Week 8 MNF Showdown: New York Giants At Kansas City Chiefs

by Matt Babich
Daniel Jones and the Giants have been up and down, but have shown the ability to hang around and produce close games. Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney have gobbled up targets and have been solid WR2's. Devontae Booker has been quietly effective as the temporary lead back, but looks to improve on a stretch of RB3 performances. There's not much to say about the Chiefs. While the offense has struggled recently, this is the perfect get-right spot. They elite playmakers weren't leaving lineups regardless. Other players like Darrel Williams and Mecole Hardman are high risk/high reward.
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Week 8 TNF Showdown: Green Bay Packers At Arizona Cardinals

by Matt Babich
The Green Bay Packers come into this game missing both Davante Adams and Alan Lazard. With a depleted receiving core, Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan look to fill the void. With Aaron Rodgers, there's always a chance, but the Packers will have to play lights out to win tonight. The Arizona Cardinals are undefeated, and steamrolling opponents. The Konami QB Kyler Murray is putting up monster numbers, DeAndre Hopkins has found his groove again, and Zach Ertz could take this offense to another level. The Cardinals are rightfully heavy favorites tonight.
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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 8

by Matt Babich
Javonte Williams inches closer and closer to his breakout game every week. He's efficient through both the ground and the air, and has a mouth-watering end-of-season schedule. Dallas Goedert is now free of the chains of Zach Ertz, allowing himself to soak up even more opportunity on a pass heavy offense deprived of reliable pass catchers. Antonio Gibson is this weeks "buy of the week". He has an incredible prospect profile, and earned a hefty Opportunity Share to start the season. Hindered with a shin injury for the time being, the value of Gibson is tanking. Now is the time to capitalize on this before he regains health and begins to explode yet again.
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Week 7 MNF Showdown: New Orleans Saints At Seattle Seahawks

by Matt Babich
The New Orleans Saints come in with a solid defense and an offense beginning to find its legs. Alvin Kamara dominates the teams offensive production, while Jameis Winston struggles to produce QB1 numbers consistently. With Geno Smith at the helm, the Seahawks offensive production will go down, but their rushing attempts will go up. Alex Collins thrived in his workhorse roll last week, and will see one again tonight. Geno Smith limits the outlook of all pass catchers.
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Week 7 Thursday Night Showdown: Denver Broncos At Cleveland Browns

by Matt Babich
The Broncos have performed well to start this season, starting off with a 3-3 record. Teddy Bridgewater is moving the offense and the defense has been stout. They face a depleted Browns offense, and have a great spot for fantasy assets. The Browns are a nightmare. They are without Baker Mayfield, Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr., and potentially even Jarvis Landry. With limited talent at receiver and running back, along with Case Keenum at the helm, the Browns are going to struggle to move the ball and compete in this matchup.
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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 7

by Matt Babich
Miles Sanders is seeing a larger Opportunity Share and a consistent Target Share, and he's trending towards seeing higher-value touches against week defenses. The connection between Jakobi Meyers and Mac Jones is growing stronger. Meyers has the talent and the opportunity, but the touchdowns haven't come yet. Rashod Bateman is here, people. He blew expectations out of the water in his first game, and it's only gonna get better from here. The Ravens have a favorable schedule going forward, and it's clear that Bateman is going to play a large role in this passing offense.
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Week 6 MNF Showdown: Buffalo Bills At Tennessee Titans

by Matt Babich
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are steamrolling everyone in their path and improving every week. This week's improvement is going to be in the Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs connection. The Bills playmakers are valuable fantasy assets this week in a likely beatdown of the Titans. The Titans took a 180-degree turn from last season. This is the toughest turn-around spot struggling stars Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown could ask for. The only bright spot has been the production of Derrick Henry, who looks to be fed yet again in an attempt to jump-start the offense.
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Week 6 TNF Showdown: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles

by Matt Babich
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter today with one of the best overall teams in the NFL. Tom Brady is playing like he's 25, Leonard Fournette has unlocked bell-cow mode, and all three starting receivers are in the top 16 in Fantasy Points Per Game. The Bucs have a tough matchup on a short week, but look to stay firing on all cylinders. The Philadelphia Eagles come in with a struggling, but talented, offense and a firewall of a defense. Jalen Hurts has been electric for fantasy, accurately spreading the ball around and staying effective on the ground. Rookie Devonta Smith, his number one target, is primed for his biggest game of the season against washed veteran Richard Sherman.
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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 6

by Matt Babich
Darrell Henderson is seeing all of the fantasy-relevant backfield touches in LA, and has a mouth watering schedule going forward. Tee Higgins doesn't see the same elite level of Opportunity Share, but is an alpha receiver who is the secondary target on a team increasing in pace by the week. DeVante Parker is soaking up opportunity and dominating production in Miami's receiver room. Miami is throwing the ball at a high rate, getting Tua Tagovailoa soon, and hitting their softest stretch of schedule.
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Week 5 MNF Showdown: Indianapolis Colts At Baltimore Ravens

by Matt Babich
The Indianapolis Colts have struggled to move the ball all season, and now they face an uphill battle against the Baltimore Ravens. Carson Wentz has been serviceable, but his lack of upside makes him a tough start in standard roster formats. He has shown an ability to get the ball to Michael Pittman. Despite negative Game Scripts, the team continues to feed running back Jonathan Taylor. The Ravens have the much better team. Lamar Jackson is primed to scorch the Colts, in route to feeding Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. Baltimore's running back room remains a crap shoot that makes it impossible to trust any of them in seasonal leagues.
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Week 5 TNF Showdown: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

by Matt Babich
The Rams are rolling and Matthew Stafford is balling. They face off against the Seahawks and their near league worst defense, which bodes well for the success of fantasy assets Darrell Henderson and Cooper Kupp. The Seahawks have been struggling to win, and Chef Russ hasn't been cooking the last two weeks. With the projected Game Script and Chris Carson likely out, Seattle will pass more. Tyler Lockett looks to have another boom week, while D.K. Metcalf draws the short straw with his matchup against Jalen Ramsey.
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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 5

by Matt Babich
Chase opportunity, and the production will come. Antonio Brown and Courtland Sutton are two receivers who have been receiving mouth-watering opportunity shares. Both players have posted a 20 point week, but a lack of touchdowns have pushed down their value. Chase Edmonds is the buy of the week. He's efficient, consistent, and the clear number one back on a team that has the league's number one Game Script. James Conner is dust. Don't let a few touchdowns scare you away from a PPR RB1.
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Week 4 TNF Showdown: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

by Matt Babich
The Cincinnati Bengals have a major edge in talent in this matchup. Joe Mixon is seeing elite opportunity metrics and is set up to smash. While Joe Burrow's lack of pass attempts limits his ceiling, he's talented enough to support more than one fantasy-relevant receiver. The Urban Meyer experiment is failing miserably. Trevor Lawrence is struggling, D.J. Chark is still unreliable, and Laviska Shenault is being misused. The only saving graces from this offense have been James Robinson and Marvin Jones.
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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 4

by Matt Babich
The Rams are balling right now, and you want to chase talent in those situations. Robert Woods is the talent to chase. His usage has been decent and improving since week 1. Variance will soon turn in favor of Woods and bring him the production we've seen in years past. The prototypical alpha is the most secure profile at the wide recevier position. Allen Robinson fits that profile, and has the target share to prove it. We've seen the Bears offense struggle, and Robinson was able to rise above the ash heap. He is the locked-in first read in an offense that will be playing plenty from behind. Robinson finds himself with a soft upcoming schedule as Justin Fields and the Bears offense attempt to grow.
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Week 3 TNF Showdown: Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans

by Matt Babich
The Panthers are hot. The team hasn't trailed for a single snap, Sam Darnold is on pace to set career highs in True Passer Rating and True Completion Percentage, D.J. Moore has been a low-end WR2, and Christian McCaffrey has been as elite as he's ever been. Given this matchup, deep threat Robby Anderson could be in for a huge night. The Texans are not. Rookie Davis Mills steps in for Tyrod Taylor, which is a massive downgrade. Brandin Cooks has been the shining star thus far, dominating target and air yards shares. The Texans need a miracle to win, and Cooks is the only reliable fantasy option on this team.
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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 3

by Matt Babich
Fantasy Football leagues aren't won at the draft. They're won by the subsequent moves made via trades and the waiver wire. Studs like Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown have had rough enough starts to the season to convince holders that it might be time to jump ship, despite having solid opportunity shares and a proven history of elite talent. Noah Fant is the locked-in number two in the Broncos offense, but hasn't yet had "the game" to jumpstart his breakout. James White is a bonafide weekly flex play in PPR leagues given his current role with the Patriots. Finally, Leonard Fournette is the cheapest bell-cow back currently on the trade block.
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Week 2 TNF Showdown: New York Giants at Washington Football Team

by Matt Babich
Washington's front-7 is going to eat the Giants's offensive line alive, which does not bode well for anyone in the Giants offense, particularly Saquon Barkley. Sterling Shepard looks to be the WR1 in this offense, and should be peppered with targets along with teammate Kenny Golladay, who will see an enticing matchup this week against the 99th ranked cornerback. Taylor Heinicke is more efficient than most realize, and is more than capable of leading this team to wins and productive fantasy outings. With Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and Logan Thomas all seeing impressive opportunity metrics last week, fantasy gamers should be trusting them in their lineups against a mid-tier defense and an overall dumpster fire of a team.
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The Great Target Chase: Pass Catchers to Draft in Tennessee and Detroit

by Matt Babich
The A.J. Brown train was full steam ahead prior to the Julio Jones news. While the move does slightly hinder his 2021 upside, you’d be crazy to predict a volume decrease for one of the league’s most prolific pass catchers. Brown is the three-legged alpha. When it comes to vacated targets, you should always chase the talent. Alphas eat first. With AJB already earning an elite Target Share, don’t be surprised when he stockpiles 140 targets.  T.J. Hockenson’s skillset perfectly fits that of Jared Goff, who prefers to throw shallow passes and let his pass catchers do the grunt work after the catch. The Lions have no true alpha at the wide receiver position. Hockenson is their alpha. If you’re keeping track, that makes his situation similar to Darren Waller’s last season. I’m not calling 140 targets. I am calling that Hockenson will be the bonafide go-to target for this offense, and the first read on many plays.
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When the Saints Go Marching Out: What to do with New Orleans Pass Catchers

by Matt Babich
Following a full reconstructive surgery, Michael Thomas should be good as new following a full rehabilitation. In dynasty, he is a clear hold and a possible buy on the other end. If you’re a shareholder, keep calm and keep those diamond hands steady. His stock will rebound when he’s back in the lineup mid-season gathering targets like a squirrel preparing for winter. Then, you can decide whether it’s in your best interest to sell. It’s tough for anyone to break through significantly on any sort of consistent basis when Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are gobbling up 250-plus targets every season and the rest of the depth chart is muddled. Tre'Quan Smith’s disappearance last season should be a concern, but there’s solace in knowing he’s shown the capability of breaking through in a major way. This alone is why fantasy gamers need to be prioritizing him this season.
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Meet The Metric - Best Ball Points Added

by Matt Babich
We don’t give Antonio Brown enough credit for walking into Tampa Bay midseason and immediately making an impact. Brown finished with an 11.8 (No. 26) Half-PPR Fantasy Points per Game average through Week 17. He displayed a low floor, but in eight games, he provided more to best ball rosters than T.Y. Hilton, Jerry Jeudy, and others did over the whole season. Considering he now has an entire offseason to become more acclimated to the offense, there is a huge buy-low opportunity present. Lamar Jackson's rushing ability gives him an elite floor that is desirable in standard formats, but his lack of ceiling held Jackson to 55.2 (No. 10) Best Ball Points Added. The Ravens face the league’s best Game Script and play and the league’s slowest pace. Jackson isn’t required to rack up the production that other quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott, even with his rushing volume. If the team’s pace doesn’t increase, Jackson paying off his QB4 price could be a mirage for believers.
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Underdog Showdown: Head-to-head Best Ball Draft Recap

by Matt Babich
Michael Thomas battled through an injury-plagued season and two quarterbacks playing at subpar levels, but still managed to hit the 15 fantasy point mark in three of his seven games, posting a 42.5-percent (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share. Enter Jameis Winston, who can provide Thomas with higher quality, fantasy relevant targets and elevate his stomach churning -35.9-percent (No. 107) Target Premium. Dak Prescott’s pre-injury production last year was mind blowing: 27 (No. 30) Deep Ball Attempts, a 55.6-percent (No. 3) Deep Ball Completion Percentage, 1.2 (No. 8) Red Zone Carries per Game, 45.1 (No. 11) Best Ball Points Added, and the list goes on. While he might not have the rushing upside you’d like, Prescott has everything he needs to be a best ball star quarterback in 2021: talent, a high powered offense, a solid supporting cast, and negative Game Scripts.
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In the Red Corner: Travis Etienne, In the Blue Corner: Najee Harris

by Matt Babich
Age-adjusted production matters, and Travis Etienne has been the man since he was 19 years old. His production profile is nothing short of prolific. He followed his impressive freshman breakout season with two straight years of at least 1,600 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns. Playing with Trevor Lawrence capped his College Dominator Rating at 25.7-percent (54th-percentile among qualified running backs), but he was efficient with his lighter workload. While not as talented of a receiver as Travis Etienne, Najee Harris did prove he is also capable of producing in the passing game at the NFL level with his 43-reception, 425-receiving yard, and 13.4-percent (90th-percentile) College Target Share senior season. With a 5.8 (68th-percentile) College YPC average, Harris was less efficient than Etienne, but his 30.9-percent (70th-percentile) College Dominator Rating (a much more predictive metric for running backs) checks in significantly higher.
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Studs and Duds 2020 – Volume 7 - Mike Gesicki and D.J. Chark

by Matt Babich
The success of Mike Gesicki and other late-round tight ends last season confirmed the process of fading the average draft positions outside of the "Big Three." Past Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller, the Fantasy Points per Game differential between TE1’s will be within two to three points per game. Buying early into a small differential carries a heavy opportunity cost. Quarterback play was a factor I did not consider enough when drafting wide receivers in 2020. I valued D.J. Chark over the likes of Will Fuller and Stefon Diggs. This was bad process, and my most fatal error. If a receiver like Chark can only attain quality targets in shallow ranges, it will be difficult for him to produce.
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Dynasty Buys: Chase Edmonds and Bryan Edwards are Criminally Undervalued

by Matt Babich
The case for Chase Edmonds is clear. He’s the secret code to get into the good analysts room. The Cardinals signing Conner over other free agents and rookies is a vote of confidence in Edmonds’ ability, not a warning sign. The stock is there for the taking 20 weeks before it skyrockets. It’s time to take advantage. Bryan Edwards has all the tools he needs to succeed. His elite frame and college production are traits to bet on. If Edwards finishes at or above the mid-WR3 range in his age 22 NFL season, he should gain at least 30 additional Lifetime Value points. That would nearly double his current value. Given his talent and situation, this target finish is well within reach. If you have the chance to get out from under this downtrending, top-heavy 2021 class and nab Edwards in return, do it.
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