This is Everything You Need to Know, Week 10 edition. In Week 9, we signaled the end of fantasy-relevance for Miles Sanders and Dameon Pierce, capitalized on the Chris Olave buy-window, basked in the failure of Jordan Love that we called two weeks ago, and pinned Tampa/Houston as the contrarian shootout of the week. Without further ado, let’s get right into everything you need to know for NFL Week 10!
Welcome to Michael Wilson Breakout Week
Michael Wilson has been a polarizing prospect throughout his NFL career thus far. Under Joshua Dobbs, Wilson struggled to produce outside a 76-yard, two-touchdown performance against San Francisco. On the surface, the Falcons are a bad matchup for Wilson, limiting outside receivers to minimal success through most games this season. That said, the Falcons have had the luxury of facing mid-tier, at best, outside receivers. They did, however, allow six receptions and 81 yards to Terry McLaurin, and six catches for 82 yards plus a touchdown to Mike Evans.
Kyler Murray returns to the lineup this week, raising the floor and ceiling of all Cardinals’ pass catchers. Wilson, who runs 90-percent of the team’s routes, will be the No. 2 target outside Marquise Brown. With A.J. Terrell squaring off against Brown for most of his snaps, Wilson is poised to have a big game. I’m projecting seven targets for five receptions, 70 yards, and a score this week.
The Rise of Khalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir has found his place in the Bills offense, now clocking at least 60-percent of the team’s snaps and 70-percent of the team’s routes the past two weeks. Last week, he ran a career-high 87-percent of routes. Over the last two weeks, he’s generated two WR3-plus weeks, corralling 10 receptions and 149 yards.
The Bills, who have been missing Dawson Knox for the past two weeks, have finally started clicking on offense. It seems to be related to running less 2-TE sets and getting Shakir involved in the passing game. Given the team’s offensive resurgence, it would be surprising to see them revert to their old ways when Knox returns.
With a fairly favorable schedule to end the season, Shakir is a WR3/FLEX consideration for the rest of the season in deeper leagues. In shallower leagues, it may be tough to add him to your roster. In that case, he’s a must watch and a must stash if you can find the room.
Carson Wentz, Savior of the Rams?
Carson Wentz is officially back in the league, signing with the Rams as they work through Matthew Stafford’s thumb injury. While Wentz has not played a game since last season, this is a very positive sign for Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
In Wentz’s stint with the Commanders last season, Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson were both viable fantasy assets, providing an average of 12.6 and 13.1 fantasy points per game, respectively. This bodes well for the Rams’ top guys in Kupp and Nacua. Wentz will be locked in on those two, providing fantasy managers with some relief after watching the disaster that was Brett Rypien.
Wentz himself was a volatile asset last season, finishing five of his eight games with under 10 fantasy points, but delivering three 20-point performances in the remaining weeks. He is a must-roster in 2QB leagues but forgettable in standard formats.
Gus Edwards’ Fake Production
Gus Edwards has led the Baltimore Ravens backfield since the injury to J.K. Dobbins. Edwards is currently sitting at RB26 with 12.6 fantasy points per game. While he’s earning a healthy 12 carries per game, his fantasy production has been touchdown-dependent. He’s only been able to top 15 fantasy points without a score once this season.
So, if Edwards is that touchdown-dependent, surely he’s been an ineffective rusher, right? Well, not exactly. His 4.2 True Yards Per Carry ranks No. 24 among running backs, and he ranks No. 20 among backs in Breakaway Run Rate. It’s not the talent that’s been the issue, it’s his inconsistent workload.
The Ravens simply haven’t been in many close games this season, leading the league in Game Script. In these blowout matchups, Edwards has been lucky enough to find the end zone, creating a usable fantasy performance. However, he has struggled to get significant touches in tighter matchups. In five tight matchups since he became the starter, Edwards averaged seven fantasy points per game (removing Arizona as that was a late-game comeback). This is concerning for his rest-of-season outlook, as the Ravens have few remaining matchups with blowout-potential. Edwards is a trade-away candidate, especially following the breakout of Keaton Mitchell.
Implied Team Totals
Highest Implied Team Totals
- Dallas Cowboys (27.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals (27.25)
- Buffalo Bills (27.25)
- Detroit Lions (26)
- Seattle Seahawks (26)
There are a few games this week that have shootout potential, headlined by the Lions/Chargers matchup. That game will surely be the chalk-favorite matchup of the week, so you’ll need to lean into it in a few of your DFS lineups. You’ll also need exposure to the Bills, Bengals, and Texans, as these teams all find themselves in offense-friendly situations.
Last week, we finally hit a contrarian game pick, pinning the Texans and Bucs as one of the highest scoring games of the week. This week, we’ll pivot to San Francisco-Jacksonville. Despite wielding a stifling defense which added Chase Young to its pass rush, the Niners have been susceptible to big plays. Jacksonville is phenomenal at taking advantage of those defenses. This game, set for a 45.5-point total, will cross 50 points and have multiple DFS-worthy plays on both offenses.
Lowest Implied Team Totals
- New York Giants (11)
- Cleveland Browns (15.75)
- Las Vegas Raiders (17.5)
- Green Bay Packers (17.75)
- New York Jets (18.5)
This far into the NFL season, the teams with the lowest implied totals are forgettable, but it’s still worthwhile to pay attention and pin some players on these teams who can out-produce their projection. Breece Hall, who is going up against the Giants, has a phenomenal matchup this week and should be included in your DFS exposure.
DFS Values: Trevor Lawrence ($6000), Rachaad White ($5800), Bijan Robinson ($6000), DeAndre Hokpins ($6000), Tyler Lockett ($6100), Calvin Ridley ($5600), Trey McBride ($3500)
Sean McVay is doing his best to keep things under lock and key, but the signing of Wentz heavily indicates we’re still a few weeks away from Stafford returning to action. Even after their Bye, I wouldn’t expect Stafford to start for some time.
David Montgomery practiced in full this week, following reports late last week that he would be available for Week 10’s matchup against the Chargers. This report is now on pace to come true, and we can expect the Lions’ workhorse back to return to the lineup this weekend with no limitations.
Ja’Marr Chase did not suit up for practice, nursing a back injury he suffered in Week 9. His Week 10 outlook is murky, but what we do know is that it’s an issue of pain tolerance.
This can actually be more troubling for fantasy managers because this makes it likely that Chase tries to fight through the pain, but ends up being benched if the pain becomes too much to bear. Monitor this situation closely.
Darren Waller was put on IR, and the earliest he can return is after the Giants’ Bye Week. There’s also a possibility of him being shut down for the season.
The 21-day practice window has opened for James Conner. Last week’s reports suggested it’s possible Conner suits up this Sunday alongside Kyler Murray. Conner was limited in practice on Wednesday, which doesn’t really tell us much. He’ll have to log a full participation in practice to suit up this week. Don’t get your expectations too high. However, feel free to put him back in your lineups if he’s active, given the state of the Cardinals backfield.
Emari Demercado has yet to practice this week with a toe injury. After not suiting up for practice last week, this is a troubling sign for his availability. Similarly to Conner, he’ll need to log at least one full session in order to suit up this Sunday. James Conner is the more likely of the two to play, but if Demercado ends up being the only one of the two to suit up, plug him into your lineups.
Week over week, we’ve been paying attention to the right details and will continue to refine our process as we learn lessons from our losses. By continuing to attack the right matchups, and following the right usage and efficiency trends, we’ll continue to DOMINATE in fantasy matchups and DFS lineups. Happy hunting!