Week 10 MNF Showdown: Los Angeles Rams At San Fransisco 49ers

by Matt Babich · Matchups Start/Sit
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Advanced stats and analytics will be utilized to identify favorable matchups and players to avoid. The purpose of this article is to paint a picture of how the teams play and matchup with one another in less than 1,000 words.

As the season continues, less emphasis will be put on last season and early season’s stats. Vegas trends will also be implemented to help predict the game flow. I’ll conclude the article with a Cliff Notes section and give the readers my prediction for the game.

Welcome to the newest edition of Monday Night Showdown. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in every Monday night matchup.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at the potential NFC West Shootout between the Rams and the 49ers.

Vegas Trends

  • LA Rams are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • LA Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against San Francisco.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams’ last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco.
  • San Francisco are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco’s last 9 games.
  • San Francisco are 0-8 SU in their last 8 games at home.

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford just wants to ball with his bros. He’s found success in his new home, coming into the week with 2,771 (No. 1 among qualified quarterbacks) passing yards and 23 (No. 2) passing touchdowns. He’s in an elite tier of quarterback production and efficiency, which is why he can finish with 22.5 (No. 7) Fantasy Points per Game without the use of his legs. He finds himself against the league’s fourth best pass defense, but no defense is unbeatable for Stafford.

The upgrade of Stafford from Jared Goff has elevated Cooper Kupp to an astronomical level.

The fantasy WR1 eclipsed the 1,000 receiving yard mark in a mere nine games. He’s dominated the Rams opportunity, with a 32.1-percent (No. 3) Target Share and has dusted team after team. Kupp is in line for another solid night against PlayerProfiler’s No. 63-ranked CB K’Waun Williams.

The Rams won the Odell Beckham sweepstakes, and he is set to make his debut tonight. The answer, however, to Beckham versus Van Jefferson is Jefferson. Although Beckham is the season-long choice, there has been no time for him to adjust, learn the playbook, or gain a rapport with Stafford. Jefferson has a path to a big night without Robert Woods. Earning six targets in five of the last seven games, he now becomes the temporary No. 2 option in LA.

Van Jefferson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Fill-in bell-cow Darrell Henderson won’t let his 116.6 (N0. 12) Weighted Opportunities go to waste. He breaks loose often, with a 6.6-percent (No. 9) Breakaway Run Rate, and is highly active in the passing game. Because of this, he’s been able to rack up 562 (No. 6) rushing yards and 16.5 (No. 14) Fantasy Points per Game. He’s set up well to have an RB1 performance versus a mid-tier rush defense.

San Fransisco 49ers

Trey Lance who? Jimmy Garoppolo found a new groove with QB3 and QB8 finishes in the past two contests. Overall, Jimmy’s season hasn’t been very impressive. He’s erratic and displays average at best efficiency. He’s produced 18 (No. 10) Danger Plays and only 6 (No. 32) Money Throws. Garoppolo lines up against a tough, but beatable defense. He’ll need to be at his best to beat the Rams.

Everyone knows the real staple to the 49ers offense is in Elijah Mitchell and the run game.

The seventh-round draft pick is going nuclear, piling up 100 rushing yards in three of his six career games. He’s yet to eclipse 20 carries, but there’s no doubt he’s the team’s lead back. Mitchell will see enough work to give him an opportunity to again finish as an RB1.

It seems there is enough room in San Francisco for both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Aiyuk cut his sophomore slump short, starting his revival with 18.7 (No. 9) Fantasy Points last week. Samuel made up for the lack of production in the meantime, compiling 882 (No. 2) receiving yards and 20.7 (No. 2) Fantasy Points per Game. Aiyuk is gifted a matchup against No. 45-ranked CB Darious Williams, while Samuel draws No. 1-ranked Jalen Ramsey. Both players are worth trotting out in fantasy.

Brandon Aiyuk Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

George Kittle‘s immediate return to dominance surprised no one. He produced 101 receiving yards on 8 targets and finished with 20.1 (No. 2) Fantasy Points. He’s the go-to in this passing offense when healthy, earning a 23.9-percent (No. 2) Target Share and a 22.9-percent (No. 6) Air Yards Share. His volume and efficiency make him one of the few tight ends that matter.

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Cliff Notes

Conclusion

The Rams have an elite team front to back. They are much better than the 49ers are, but San Fransisco has played close games all season. The point spread is set at 3.5 points in favor of the Rams. I expect the Rams to win the game in a tight matchup, but by more than three points. I’m taking the Rams to cover.

The point total is set at 50 points. Los Angeles plays at a fast pace, while the 49ers like to take it slow. That being said, this offense is different when George Kittle is active and Brandon Aiyuk is playing at a high level. They are an efficient offense that can put points on the board. I expect this to be a classic NFC West shootout, and for these team’s under trends to come to an end. Take the over tonight.

Prediction: Rams 31-24