Welcome back to the “Everything You Need to Know” series! Now that we’re two weeks in, we have a lot more actionable information to break down. Let’s get right into everything you need to know for NFL Week 3!
Tank Dell Out Snapped Nico Collins in Week 2
We saw why C.J. Stroud told the Texans he wanted to throw to Nathaniel Dell. He quickly developed a connection with his fellow rookie quarterback, turning 10 targets into seven receptions, 72 yards, and a touchdown.
What’s more impressive is that this stat line came on the heels of a 79-percent Snap Share, 17-percent higher than Nico Collins. Dell is going to be fantasy-relevant going forward. He has the skill, the opportunity, and the connection with his quarterback.
He draws a Jacksonville secondary that just allowed 70 yards and a touchdown to slot receiver Skyy Moore. Dell is a strong flex play in a surprisingly high-volume Texans passing offense.
Jahmyr Gibbs Led the Lions in Targets and Receptions in Week 2
For whatever reason, Craig Reynolds is getting all of the air time in the fantasy space post-David Montgomery injury. Let’s instead focus on the most important piece of news from the game– Jahmyr Gibbs leading the team with nine targets and seven receptions.
Gibbs nearly doubled his Week 1 Snap Share, almost exclusively from his increased involvement in the passing game. He’s a dynamic playmaker, and Ben Johnson is clearly revving him up. Reynolds can take the runs up the middle. We don’t want Gibbs to have those high-risk carries anyway.
With Montgomery gone, Gibbs should clear a 50-percent Snap Share and be the backfield touch leader. Miles Sanders cut up the Falcons for 72 rushing yards on 18 carries, along with four receptions in an RB2 performance. I expect a similar performance from Gibbs.
Zach Ertz Is the Arizona Cardinals’ Target Leader
Unfortunately, you read that right. 33-year-old Zach Ertz, who tore his ACL and MCL in Week 10 of last season, has earned 18 through two weeks. This not only leads his team, but all tight ends. Not many expected this medical marvel.
Well, it may not be the real thing. He hasn’t done much with his opportunity, generating only 77 scoreless yards on his 12 receptions. This is a testament to his 5.6 (No. 17) Average Depth of Target. Ertz has clearly aged past the point of being a YAC creator, toting less than a yard after the catch thus far.
This week, he faces a Cowboys defense that is smothering opposing offenses. The Cardinals will struggle to move the ball. As a result, Ertz will see his fair share of targets again. Many are screaming to start Ertz because of the targets. I’m rostering him because of the volume, but am avoiding the bad matchup this week.
Implied Team Totals
Highest Implied Team Totals
- Kansas City Chiefs (30)
- Dallas Cowboys (27.75)
- Minnesota Vikings (27.5)
- Miami Dolphins (27.5)
- San Francisco 49ers (27)
The clear game to target this week is the Vikings and the Chargers. No matter the game total, we know these two electric offenses and laughable defenses are going to produce a treasure-trove of fantasy points.
Minnesota pass catchers have a fantastic matchup against LA’s secondary. We’re firing up Jefferson, Hockenson, Osborn, AND Addison in DFS lineups. On the other side, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams look to feast again. Joshua Kelley is a great bounce-back candidate, facing a demoralized Vikings rush attack that gave up 181 total yards to D’Andre Swift.
Lowest Implied Team Totals
- Arizona Cardinals (15.25)
- New York Jets (17.25)
- Chicago Bears (17.5)
- Houston Texans (18)
- Carolina Panthers (18)
Surprisingly, four of the five of these games have a game total of at least 42 points. Because of this, we’re not fading the opponents of the Cardinals (Cowboys), Bears (Chiefs), Texans (Jaguars), and Panthers (Seahawks). We’ll continue to fade the low-volume offenses in DFS.
DFS Values: Kirk Cousins ($6900), Trevor Lawrence ($6,800), Joshua Kelley ($5,400), Zack Moss ($5,500), K.J. Osborn ($4,000), Zay Flowers ($5,400)
Coming off of a breakout rushing performance, Anthony Richardson has yet to practice and remains in the concussion protocol. As of now, it’s not looking good for his availability for this week’s matchup against the Ravens.
If he’s able to clear protocol and is activated, you’re confidently placing him back in your lineup.
Christian Watson returned to practice and is gearing up for his first appearance of the 2023 season. He returned as a limited participant in practice, which makes sense for a hamstring injury.
If he does not return to full participation by Thursday, his availability will be put into question once again. If he is activated for Sunday after a week of limited participation in practice, we’ll likely see a limited snap count. In that event, sit Watson and fire up Jayden Reed.
Jaylen Waddle has yet to clear concussion protocol. Similarly, to Richardson, he’ll need to get back into the swing of things soon if he is going to play on Sunday. If he clears protocol and he’s activated, slot him back into your lineups.
Kenny Gainwell looks to be trending in the right direction to play in Week 3. After D’Andre Swift carved the Vikings defense, it’s tough to imagine Gainwell getting the bulk of the touches in Week 3. Even if he’s active, keep him on your bench.
Kendre Miller is back to being a full participant in practice after fighting off a hamstring injury as well as a knee sprain earlier in training camp. While Miller looks to earn his first NFL regular season action this week, he may have more of a “ramp up” period than many expect.
Succumbing to two lower-body injuries following a recovery from a knee surgery is not a good sign to start his career, and I doubt the Saints are willing to risk over-working him in his debut. I expect the Saints to lean on the pass and will give Tony Jones most of the work.
In Week 3, the theme is to stick to our process. By continuing to attack the right matchups, and follow the right usage and efficiency trends, we’ll continue to DOMINATE our fantasy matchups and DFS lineups. Happy hunting!