Week 15 TNF Showdown: 49ers at Seahawks

by Matt Babich · Betting & Props

The Week 15 TNF Showdown features the 49ers at the Seahawks. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. I’m sure you’re all excited for this riveting matchup. Without further ado, let’s see what San Francisco and Seattle have in store for us as they kick off the opening round of the 2022 fantasy playoffs.

Advanced stats and analytics will be utilized to identify favorable matchups and players to avoid. The purpose of this article is to paint a picture of how the teams play and match up with one another in less than 1,500 words.

As the season continues, less emphasis will be put on last season and early season’s stats. Vegas trends will also be implemented to help predict the game flow. I’ll conclude the article with a Cliff Notes section and give the readers my prediction for the game.

Vegas Trends

  • Kyle Shanahan is 3-8 SU in his 11 games coaching against Pete Carroll
  • San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 7 games.
  • Seattle is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle’s last 9 games against San Francisco.
  • Pete Carroll is 45-27-4 ATS following a loss since he joined Seattle in 2010.

Notable Injuries

San Francisco

  • Deebo Samuel (Ankle, OUT)
  • Nick Bosa (Hamstring, Doubtful)

Seahawks

  • Kenneth Walker (Ankle, ACTIVE)

The San Francisco 49ers

It’s easy to get enamored by late-round rookie quarterbacks. They always have a certain fire, and when they deliver in the spotlight America falls in love. Brock Purdy is the next candidate to test the waters of  “the Tom Brady trajectory.” He produced 15.3 and 21.7 fantasy points in his two games as the team’s signal caller. Completing 70.7-percent of his passes with a 90.9 True Passer Rating, he’s quickly settling into Kyle Shanahan’s system.

He’s even displayed exceptional skill, throwing six Money Throws in under 70 attempts. He draws a run-funnel Seahawks defense conceding the No. 10 fewest pass attempts this season who have also yielded big games to quarterbacks. You can slot Purdy in as a high-end QB2 with top-12 upside.

Christian McCaffrey has a mouth-watering matchup to kick off the fantasy playoffs. He faces a Seahawks defense which ranks No. 7 lowest in rush DVOA (per FootballOutsiders) and has given up the No. 2 most rushing attempts and fantasy points to running backs. There’s not much to think about here. McCaffrey is averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game since Week 8 and is an unquestioned RB1 every week.

With the injury to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk steps into the lead receiving role for the 49ers. Averaging under 70 Air Yards per Game, he racks up production by generating a 2.18 (No. 11) Target Separation and 5.1 Yards After Catch per Reception. He’s a top-24 receiver in fantasy points per game, but has shown a limited ceiling in 2022, cracking 20 points twice in 13 games. Without Samuel on the field, however, this changes. Aiyuk has amassed 20 fantasy points in four of his seven games played without the veteran. He slots in as a high-end WR2 with 20-point upside as he’ll be shadowed by standout rookie and super-athlete Tariq Woolen.

TNF Prop No. 1: Christian McCaffrey Any Time Touchdown Scorer

The crime of turning George Kittle into a glorified left tackle should be punishable by death. The freak athlete and incredible pass-catching talent has drawn a target on just 18.9-percent of his targets this season. This is his lowest Target Rate in his career and is down 13.6-percent from his previous four season average.

Dwindling every year since 2018, his targets volume has bottomed-out at 5.4 targets per game. Since the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, Kittle possesses as much fantasy value as any other tight end streamer. He produced a 39-point eruption against Seattle last season without Samuel in the lineup. I expect a top-10 output from Kittle and would start him as a high-risk/high-reward play.

George Kittle Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Kyle Shanahan doesn’t have much trust in either of Ray-Ray McCloud nor Jauan Jennings. Both will get added snaps with Samuel out, but neither have much fantasy value. Both have a 15+ point week under their belts this season, but Jennings has logged at least 15 routes in six of 12 games this season. McCloud has only two such games. With other assets drawing the Seahawks attention, I love Jennings as a sneaky DFS play but would not roll him out in seasonal leagues.

The Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith is a top-7 QB in Fantasy Points per Game. Reading that sentence alone is crazy let alone in week 15 of 2022. He ranks in the top-10 quarterbacks in every advanced Accuracy Rating tracked by PlayerProfiler and leads the position with a 75.6-percent (No. 1) True Completion Percentage.

To sum up about 30 different significant metrics, Smith is one of the most efficient and productive QBs this year. From a fantasy perspective, he’s more than delivered, putting up four 20-point finishes in the last five weeks. He posseses a rushing floor with 263 (No. 9) rushing yards on the season and has thrown for two+ touchdowns in 11 of 13 games. Without Kenneth Walker, the Seahawks will need to throw to beat the stout 49ers defense. Considering the matchup and prior performance, Smith’s floor is a mid-level QB2.

The backfield picture behind Kenneth Walker is ugly. Tony Jones got the start, but it was Travis Homer who led the backfield in opportunities (as expected). This week, the Seahawks will get Kenneth Walker back in the lineup. Unfortunatley, you can’t play him. The 49ers are the leagues best rushing defense, and Walker has seen a dismal 24.7 (No. 60) Run Blocking Rating. Coming back early from an injury against the league’s best rushing defense is a recipe for an early fantasy playoff exit. I understand the talent level, but you have to stay grounded in these situations.

TNF Guest Prop: Kenneth Walker UNDER 49.5 rushing yards” – Aaron Stewart

Thanks to Geno Smith, D.K. Metcalf has scored at least 10 fantasy points in six straight games, and Tyler Lockett has done so in seven straight games. Both have been extremely reliable while maintaining 20+ point ceilings on a weekly basis. You’re rolling out both of these guys tonight. Tyler Lockett leads receivers thus far in Route Win Rate, and Metcalf checks in at number 15. They are automatic route runners who combine for 50-percent of the teams targets on the season. They are also now on a pass-first offense with a hyper-accurate quarterback. We’ve seen teams burn San Francisco through the air before, and we’ll see it again tonight. Both slot in as mid-level WR2’s with top-12 upside.

Prior to Week 15, Noah Fant seemed to be picking up steam. He found the endzone en route to a 14.4-point performance in Week 14, then crashed down with 1 catch-less target. After being out-targeted by Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson, I’m fading Fant against one of the leagues best defenses against the position. He draws less than four targets and 25 air yards per game and has to find the endzone to achieve usability.

TNF Prop No. 2: Marquise Goodwin OVER 28.5 receiving yards

Another sneaky DFS play is Marquise Goodwin. He dropped 20 fantasy points again this week and converted five of his six targets into receptions for 95 yards and a score. The speedster has played 50-percent of snaps in three games this season and has reached 10 fantasy points in all three. In a game where Seattle will likely be playing from behind, and will likely need to get creative to move the ball, they may look to Goodwin for an added spark. Plus, he’s drawn a redzone target in five of his last seven games, so he has a realistic chance at scoring.

Cliff Notes

  • Brock Purdy isn’t that different from Jimmy G.
  • George Kittle, known left tackle, will move back to tight end tonight.
  • Jauan Jennings and Marquise Goodwin are sneaky DFS plays.
  • Keep the faith in Geno Smith.
  • Don’t overthink Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf
  • Avoid Kenneth Walker and Noah Fant.

Conclusion

San Francisco visits Seattle and are listed as 3 point favorites. They been undeniably the better team as of late. For six straight weeks the 49ers have shut down their opponent, and the Seahawks have struggled to stop anyone. However, the Seahawks need this win at home to keep their playoff hopes alive. Pete Carroll is historically good after a loss and is capable of game planning against Mr. Irrelevant. Despite the disparaging difference in defensive quality, I expect Seattle’s offense to carry the load. If I’m betting, I’d buy the hook for +2.5, but the official pick is Seattle to cover the full three points at home.

The total is set at 43 points. Both teams have been hitting overs lately, and both have hit this total in four of their last six contests. I expect big plays in this game. The 49ers will attack through the ground, and the Seahawks will go through the air. If San Francisco can’t slow down the Seahawks passing game, then it will easily shoot. I do expect Seattle to not only compete in this game, but pull out the victory outright. To do that, they’ll have to score. I’m taking the over in this contest

2022 record:

  • Spread: 7-9
  • Total: 10-6
  • Props: 17-10

Prediction: Seahawks 26-24