Welcome to Super Bowl Novelty Prop Picks! These bets are a fun, but risky, way to have some action on the big game. Some may say those who bet on a coin flip or a Gatorade bath are “addicts,” but the Super Bowl is about soaking in every last drop of football before the offseason. This is the last meaningful NFL game we’ll get until September, (responsibly) so have some fun.
Without further ado, let’s break down the most popular options on the slate.
Disclaimer: These fun props are made to entice people to gamble more. There’s no mathematical advantage to be had. If you want action on any of these picks, my on-the-record recommendation would be to only risk a small amount and have some fun with it. Some of these picks may not be available on your books, as many states are not granted permission to offer wagers the un-official aspects of the game. Bovada is an example of a book that is able to field most wagers.
- Heads (-105)
- Tails (-105)
We begin with the holy grail. The math behind the coin toss is simple. There is a 50-percent chance of either side turning up. It doesn’t matter how many times you flip it or what the previous results were, it’s a simple 50/50 chance. The age-old expression “tails never fails” is generally the gambler’s compass to the coin flip dilemma. This is a prop I usually play for fun, and I always go tails. I’ve been burned in recent years, but statistically, that means nothing. I’m keeping the faith.
Pick: Tails (-105)
National Anthem Length
- Over 127 seconds (-165)
- Under 127 seconds (+120)
What’s more American than spending the national anthem anxiously watching your phone timer because you need the singer to last 30 more seconds? Nothing, it’s what our founding fathers died for. Country singer and songwriter Chris Stapleton is set to deliver this year’s performance with the over/under line for his performance currently set at two minutes and five seconds.
Will Chris Stapleton go over (-115) or under (-115) 2 minutes and 5 seconds singing the national anthem at #SuperBowlLVII? 🇺🇸
Watch #SuperBowlLVII on FOX and the FOX Sports App 📺📱 pic.twitter.com/1bOeW2OFDg
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) February 8, 2023
This is a surprisingly high line, as only eight singers since 1990 have cleared the number. If you’ve ever heard Stapleton’s music, you’d understand why. He’s most known for his hit song “Tennessee Whiskey,” which runs nearly five minutes long and maintains a slow-and-smooth tempo of 49 beats per minute. He’s an established singer known for grandiose deliveries. Three of the last four country singers have gone over two minutes, but none have gone over 127 seconds. He’ll take his time in an anthem rendition that will likely get people talking. The pick is over, but unfortunately, the juice is not even close to being playable.
Pick: Over 2 minutes and 7 seconds (-165)
Color of Gatorade Bath
- Yellow/Green (+130)
- Orange (+320)
- Blue (+380)
- Red/Pink (+650)
Rounding out the big-three of novelty props is the color of the Gatorade bath thrust upon the winning team’s head coach.
When the Chiefs last won the Super Bowl in 2021, they poured orange Gatorade over coach Andy Reid. The Eagles doused Doug Pederson with the Lemon-Lime (yellow/green) flavor. This is why these two flavors are the two favorites in the books. NFL teams are not prone to their superstitions, plus each color fits with the team’s respective color scheme. It makes sense that these teams will have these colors on the sideline again. The best bet is the color of the team you think will win the game. Orange is the best value given Kansas City’s odds to win.
A possible long-shot option is blue. This has been the winning pick in three of the past four season and Cool Blue was ranked the most popular flavor in the US in a 2020 study.
Pick: Orange (+320)
Halftime Show: First Song
- Don’t Stop the Music (+150)
- What’s My Name (+500)
- Stay (+600)
- Umbrella (+600)
- We Found Love (+700)
- Where Have You Been (+800)
- You Needed Me (+1500)
Rihanna takes the stage for the first time in six years, and the world is anxiously awaiting her opening track. Similarly to the Gatorade bath, we’ll have to make some educated guesses to make our pick.
In her last tour stint, she opened every major show with Stay. While this is a beautiful song and a good intro to a full concert setlist, her setlist from the 2016 MTV Music Awards (where she led with Don’t Stop the Music) is a far better blueprint for what we’ll likely see in a shorter show with thousands of fans awaiting club classics. Don’t Stop the Music is currently the heavy favorite and the most logical pick, with the line recently shifting from +300 to + 150. It has a historic hit rate plus a very recognizable intro that will get the crowd to pop.
Which Super Bowl halftime show is your favorite? 🤔🎶🎤#SuperBowlLVII x @rihanna | Feb 12 on FOX pic.twitter.com/LEqQenoPCZ
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) February 8, 2023
Other solid picks are What’s My Name and We Found Love. What’s My Name is another former radio hit that would immediately bring the pop out of the crowd. We Found Love is one of her most popular songs and has a solid value at +700 but is far more suited for the peak of a set.
The long-shot play is You Needed Me. This is a phenomenal value at +1500. It is her second-most popular song in terms of total streams and has been on every commercial advertising her performance.
Picks: You Needed Me (+1500), What’s My Name (+500)
Halftime Show: Number of Songs in Rihanna’s Set
- Over 9.5 (-105)
- Under 9.5 (-130)
This total has gone under in six of the last eight Super Bowl halftime shows, likely why the under is so heavily juiced. The big game does have a longer halftime than normal, but there are still only 20-30 minutes before the teams resume play. Many recent performers, like The Weeknd and Bruno Mars, opted to perform fewer songs and devote more time to each one. The joint performance of Shakira and Jennifer Lopez, on the other hand, performed a whopping 15 songs in 2020.
The comparison that catches my eye is Justin Timberlake, another pop star with endless radio hits. JT performed 11 songs in his solo performance. His performance contained many of his pop classics as well as a few slower r&b songs. This is a mold Rihanna fits perfectly. The fans will want to hear her endless hits, both pop and r&b, and she’s likely to bring the heat in her return to performing live. I expect her to break the trend and go over 9.5 songs.
Pick: Over 9.5 songs (-105)
Halftime Show: Which Guest Will Rihanna Bring Out?
- Jay-Z (-225)
- Calvin Harris (-175)
- Drake (-150)
- A$AP Rocky (+200)
- T.I. (+400)
Special Appearances are always one of the most speculated aspects of the Super Bowl halftime show. Unfortunately, there is almost no value on the board this year. The heavy favorites (Jay-Z, Calvin Harris, and Drake) are all juiced to oblivion. There is, however, some value in selecting A$AP Rocky or T.I. to appear on stage. The favorite is Jay-Z, as he appears on her hit song Umbrella and is coordinating the setup of her entire show through his music label Roc Nation.
A$AP Rocky has been in a relationship with Rihanna for quite awhile now. The two have a child together and, allegedly, are secretly married. The relationship would normally push the line closer to the favorites, but the two have recorded zero songs together. That hasn’t barred appearances from special guests in years past, creating a bit of value in the play.
T.I. is another value given that his song Live Your Life, featuring an iconic Rihanna chorus, is the second-highest charting song in Rihanna’s discography. It’s also a favorite to appear on the show’s setlist. If you’re around my age, you practically grew up on this song and would love to see these two perform it live.
Picks: Jay-Z (-225), A$AP Rocky (+200)
The goal of betting on these exotic novelty props is to have fun and maybe make some money along the way. There’s no mathematical advantage to be had, but there is some value on the board. We’re in for an exciting night of football and special events on Sunday, be sure to make the most of it!