Welcome back to the “Everything You Need to Know” series! Week 3 confirmed our priors from some of last week’s notes, and revealed rookies that are quickly surging into fantasy stardom. Let’s get right into everything you need to know for NFL Week 4!
Jayden Reed is Gearing Up
Jayden Reed quickly cemented his role in the Packers’ offense, and it’s now grown in three-straight weeks. He finished with a career high 68-percent Snap Share on Sunday, recording his second-straight game of 7+ targets and 90+ Air Yards. What’s most impressive, and exciting, about his early usage is his role in the red zone.
Reed corralled four red zone targets in Week 3. Now, he’s totaled seven targets in that area in two games. With this usage, the rookie’s weekly touchdown upside dramatically increases. This is especially true with Christian Watson coming back, as defenses will need to spread out more. Reed is on his way to becoming a weekly flex option in PPR leagues.
Tank Dell Usurping Nico Collins
Nathaniel “Tank” Dell is not only rapidly becoming an every-down player for the Texans, but is on his way to taking over the “alpha” role in the Texans offense. It’s now two-straight weeks of Dell running more routes than Nico Collins. Dell also earned 136 Air Yards last week, 116 more than Collins.
We were clearly wrong about the Texans. You want shares of this passing game, and Dell is the one to target. The rookie has cleared both a 20-percent Target Share and Air Yard Share, while finding the end zone, in two-straight contests. Dell is a buy-high and a weekly starter in slightly deeper leagues.
The Bijan Robinson Takeover
If you haven’t already sold Tyler Allgeier, it’s time. Bijan Robinson is in a full backfield takeover. His Snap Share has increased in three-straight weeks, peaking at 81-percent on Sunday. As such, Allgeier is now struggling to see the field. The Falcons will find themselves in more Game Scripts similar to Week 3, where they’re behind but within striking distance. As such, Bijan will find himself cannibalizing more and more touches from Atlanta’s backups.
The upside of Allgeier is rapidly diminishing, and if you can get someone of higher upside in a trade, then it’s time to pull the trigger.
RBs Hanging by a Thread
While the supposed “Hot Hand” approach should have vastly favored D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell still managed to garner 14 carries in last week’s contest against the Buccaneers. It seems that Gainwell still has favor from the coaching staff and will continue to have a similar role in the near future. While he is not completely dead as a fantasy asset, it won’t be long before he is if this efficiency keeps up.
Similarly, Najee Harris is now in a near-50/50 split with Jaylen Warren. It’s pretty much time to pronounce Harris dead in fantasy, falling below six fantasy points in each contest this season. Warren, who has collected 16 targets through three games, is now a weekly flex consideration in deeper leagues.
JSN Panic Mode
The panic on Jaxon Smith-Njigba is starting to rise, understandably so. In what should have been a solid matchup from the rookie, his Snap Share dipped to a career-low 47-percent. With that, he turned a dismal three targets into 10 yards. What’s even more worrisome is that rookie Jake Bobo was the one taking his opportunity.
Bobo’s Snap Share, route participation, and targets have increased in three straight weeks. If you recall, he was the rookie veteran producers on the team were saying was doing all of the right things during the offseason. While some may call this a buy window for JSN, I’m looking to sell any redraft shares I have while there’s still hope.
Implied Team Totals
Each week, we review the highest and lowest implied team totals. This points us in the direction of the teams Vegas thinks is going to score the most points and, by proxy, the most fantasy points. We use game totals and implied team totals to aid our decision making when constructing our fantasy and DFS lineups.
Highest Team Totals
- San Francisco 49ers (29.25)
- Buffalo Bills (28.25)
- Los Angeles Chargers (27)
- Philadelphia Eagles (26)
- Kansas City Chiefs (26)
Four of these teams find themselves in potential blowout scenarios. While this can pose threats to players’ fantasy production, it’s important not to sit high-performing fantasy stars because of blowout fears. In DFS, however, we’ll make sure not to be over-exposed to any of these games.
We’ll have an extreme case of chalk this week, with Buffalo and Miami being the only teams above 25 implied points that are in a competitive matchup. With this week’s slate, it may be best to just lean into the chalk and get exposure to this matchup.
Lowest Team Totals
- Arizona Cardinals (15.25)
- New York Jets (16.5)
- Washington Commanders (17.5)
- New England Patriots (18.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (18.75)
The Jets have become obvious weekly fades. The Cardinals are improving but find themselves facing the 49ers. In New England, there isn’t enough consistent production to trust anyone yet. Washington struggles against good pass rushes and could get bottled by Philadelphia. There could be value, though, in Tampa Bay. The Saints are getting their due credit for keeping all three opponents under 20 points, but Tampa will be the highest-powered offense they’ve seen thus far.
DFS Values: Anthony Richardson ($6,700), Devon Achane ($5,700), Jerome Ford ($5,400), Josh Palmer ($4000), Michael Thomas ($5,200)
BONUS: Monday Night Showdown Slate
Monday Night Football provides us with the third-highest game total on the week, where the Giants are visiting the Seahawks. This will be a juicy matchup to get exposure to in DFS.
Both defenses have given up 30+ points twice this season, and both offenses have high-powered fantasy producers that are reasonably priced in DFS. Daniel Jones should bounce back in a big way, facing a defense allergic to pressuring the quarterback. Seattle has been thrashed by deep threats three straight weeks, giving up 40+ yard touchdowns to Kalif Raymond and DJ Chark, meaning Darius Slayton could be in for a big game. On the other side, Kenneth Walker should continue his dominance against what’s currently a bottom-five rushing defense.
Anthony Richardson practiced in full Wednesday, and is on track to clear concussion protocol and start versus the Los Angeles Rams. If/when he’s activated, he’s going right back into your lineups with his QB1 upside against a softer Rams defense.
Jaylen Waddle also fully practiced on Wednesday, leading us to believe he’ll be available on Sunday versus the Bills. Buffalo has stifled the passing offenses that have come their way thus far, but Miami’s attack will be a new beast.
Waddle could thrive against a defense he cleared 100 receiving yards against in two of three 2022 matchups.
Jimmy G has yet to practice this week due to the concussion he suffered in Week 3’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s growing more likely that the team will have to start either Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell in this week’s contest against the Chargers. If that happens, move all Raiders down your rankings.
In Week 4, the theme is to stick to our process. By continuing to attack the right matchups, and follow the right usage and efficiency trends, we’ll continue to DOMINATE our fantasy matchups and DFS lineups. Happy hunting!