The Week 16 TNF Showdown features the Jaguars vs the Jets. I’ll guide you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. I’m sure you’re all excited for this riveting game. Without further ado, let’s see what Jacksonville and New York have in store for us as we reach the semi-finals of the 2022 fantasy playoffs.
Advanced stats and analytics will be utilized to identify favorable matchups and players to avoid. The purpose of this article is to paint a picture of how the teams play and match up with one another in less than 1,500 words.
As the season continues, less emphasis will be put on last season and early season’s stats. Vegas trends will also be implemented to help predict the game flow. I’ll conclude the article with a Cliff Notes section and give the readers my prediction for the game.
- Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville’s last 7 road games.
- Jacksonville is 2-18 SU in their last 20 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the NY Jets’ last 9 games.
- The Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets’ last 5 games as a home underdog
- Cam Robinson (Knee, OUT)
- Folorunso Fatukasi (Ankle, OUT)
- Trevon Walker (Ankle, OUT)
- Brandon Scherff (Abdomen, Questionable)
- Mike White (Ribs, OUT)
- Zonovan Knight (Ankle, Questionable)
- Denzel Mims (Concussion, OUT)
- Duane Brown (Shoulder, Questionable)
- George Fant (Knee, Questionable)
- Lamarcus Joyner (Hip, Questionable)
- Quinnen Williams (Calf, Questionable)
The Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s TrevHIM Lawrence from now on. Lawrence is scoring 19.3 (No. 7) fantasy points per game on the season and is the QB4 since week 10. In the face of heavy pressure, he’s risen to the occasion, delivering 25 (No. 6) Money Throws and a 6.2 (No. 9) Under Pressure Accuracy Rating. Lawrence is learning how to own the big moments, notching 21-point, 27-point, and 33-point performances against defenses ranking in the top 15 in QB Pressure Rate (ProFootballReference). We’re witnessing the coming out party. He’s thrown for at least 315 yards in three of his last four games. He faces off against a tough, but beatable, Jets secondary. Having just shredded an even stouter secondary in terms of DVOA last week, I expect a 16-point floor and would trust Lawrence in semifinal lineups.
Trevor Lawrence PFF grades
First 8 games vs last 6 games pic.twitter.com/LWofhoYHOc
— Conan Grune (@1stat1day) December 21, 2022
It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for Travis Etienne. After a slow start, he broke out in Week 5, so much so that the Jaguars traded away James Robinson. He averaged 18 fantasy points per game from Week 5 through the Week 11 bye before spraining his left foot in Week 12. The Jags have spent the following three weeks ramping Etienne back up to a normal workload giving him more carries in consecutive weeks. His routes run have also increased, but he’s drawn a mere 2.6 targets per game all season. He’s proven ineffective as a pass catcher, and the team prefers to place backfield targets in the hands of Jamaal Agnew. On a short week against a top-10 rushing and red zone defense, it will be tough for Etienne to find success. With his big-play ability, Etienne slots in as a boom/bust RB2 in the fantasy semifinals.
TNF Prop No. 1: Trevor Lawrence OVER 13.5 rushing yards
Let me be the one-millionth person to tell you that Zay Jones is winning leagues. The writing has been on the wall for weeks now. He’s been an (almost) every-down player since Week 6 and drew five-plus targets in six of his first eight contests. At that time, Lawrence was only capable of keeping one receiver consistently fantasy-relevant (mainly Christian Kirk). Since the Week 10 spark, Lawrence is capable of keeping his top three options fantasy relevant. Jones has earned a 21-percent Target Share and has drawn at least one red zone target in every game since week 10. The Jags will find a way to get Jones targets tonight. Against Sauce Gardner, I expect a come-back-to-Earth game for him but would still roll out Jones as a flex.
It's the route stem selling comeback at the sticks that really makes this Zay Jones double move.
Fantastic storytelling matches the scenario and maximizes the devastation. pic.twitter.com/lgfDhoWaEz
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) December 21, 2022
Despite not being talked about as much as his counterpart, Christian Kirk is earning a near-equal Opportunity Share in one of the league’s most consolidated target shares. The explosive wideout has earned 21 (No. 10) Deep Targets and at least one red zone target in all but three games this season.
The opportunities are bountiful, and Kirk gets to avoid primary coverage from No. 1 corners like Trevon Diggs by lining up in the slot for 52.5-percent of his snaps. Earning 2.22 (No. 18) Yards per Route Run, and producing a 6.5-percent (No. 12) Juke Rate, he’s not stood up by his opportunity. Nevertheless, he’s racked up 90-plus receiving yards in four of his last eight games and six-plus receptions in five of his last eight games. His ceiling is likely limited in a game that is not likely to shoot out, but the standalone talent and opportunity are enough to roll out Kirk as a WR2.
TNF Prop No. 2: Christian Kirk OVER 4 receptions
The rise of Evan Engram is upon us. In the past three weeks, he averages 22.4 fantasy points per game. He’s finally found a quarterback/system that can deliver him quality targets and accentuate his skillset. The Jaguars have put his athleticism to good use, providing Engram with 9 (No. 4) Deep Targets and getting him the ball in space to run up 5.4 Yards After Catch per Target. His opportunity share is also fairly lucrative.
He’s earning a 17-percent (No. 13) Target Share and a 23-percent (No. 11) Target Rate, ranks in the top-3 TE’s in Slot Snaps and Routes Run and has drawn five red zone targets in the past three games. The stars are aligning just in time for the fantasy playoff home stretch, and now he faces a Jets team allowing the No. 7 most receptions and No. 12 most receiving yards to the position. Engram is an auto-start given the positional landscape.
The New York Jets
Zach Wilson has struggled to display efficiency or arm talent thus far in his career and has reached 15 fantasy points in just seven starts. He recorded 20 fantasy points in a 317-yard and two-touchdown performance in his return from being benched but completed only 51-percent of his passes. Running 36.8 (No. 8) Team Pass Plays per Game with a 2.2 (No. 5) Pace of Play, the Jets at least give their quarterbacks plenty of opportunity to put numbers on the board.
His 7.1 (No. 14) Yards per Attempt and 8.9 (No. 8) Air Yards per Attempt give some glimmer of hope that Wilson can produce against a Jags defense allowing the No. 6-most fantasy points per game and No. 4-most passing touchdowns to signal callers. Given the opportunity and the matchup, I expect Wilson to put up at least a touchdown en route to a QB2 performance. He’s a sit in 1Qb leagues and a reluctant start in 2QB/Superflex.
Pretty sure that’s the Zach Wilson Pro Day throw to C.J. Uzomah pic.twitter.com/IMiJVOhgvM
— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) December 18, 2022
The uprising of Zonovan “Bam” Knight has been a fun one to watch. The undrafted rookie out of NC State is averaging 12 fantasy points per game in his four appearances and put up 13-plus fantasy points in each of his first three matchups. He’s not the most efficient ball carrier with a 3.9 (No. 50) True Yards per Carry and a 21.7-percent Juke Rate. However, he runs hard and doesn’t give a damn if his measurables aren’t up to par. He has upside on the ground against a defense allowing the No. 6 most rushing touchdowns to RBs.
His receiving upside, though, has disappeared with Michael Carter‘s return to the lineup. I like Bam as a flex option in deeper leagues but would be wary of the limited receiving opportunity. Carter checks in as a DFS sleeper as Jacksonville is extremely vulnerable to pass-catching backs.
TNF Prop No. 3: Garrett Wilson OVER 56.5 receiving yards
It took no time at all for Garrett Wilson to make his mark on the league. His early-season eruption simmered when Zach Wilson returned from injury in Week 4. He’s risen once again, scoring 13-plus fantasy points and 75-plus receiving yards in six of his last seven contests. He’s efficiently compiling production with 2.22 (No. 9) Yards per Route Run, 3.1 Yards After Catch per Target, and a 16.9-percent Juke Rate. His opportunity share has slightly fallen with Wilson at the helm, but he still earns 21-percent of the team’s targets and draws a target on 23-percent of his routes. Jacksonville has been getting torched by number-one receivers week after week this season, and Wilson is the next in line. The rookie is a locked-in WR2 with the upside for a top-5 finish.
Check out how the Jaguars defense has performed against legit WR1s:
Lamb: 7 REC, 126 YDS
St. Brown: 11 REC, 114 YDS, 2 TD
Adams: 10 REC, 146 YDS, 2 TD
Pittman: 13 REC, 134 YDS
A.J. Brown: 5 REC, 95 YDS
Wheels up for Garrett Wilson.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) December 21, 2022
Avoid any other Jet in your fantasy lineups!
Past Garrett Wilson, your options are limited with Jets pass catchers. Elijah Moore (who is good at football, by the way) has scored at least 10 fantasy points in two of his last four games, but the performances have been somewhat fraudulent. The first occasion stemmed from a long touchdown, and the other came in the absence of Corey Davis who is set to return this week from concussion protocol.
Additionally, both of those performances came with Mike White at quarterback. Moore saw seven targets last week but finished with a disappointing 4-51 line. In spite of a 13-percent Target Share (No. 79) and a dismal 1.06 (No. 96) Yards per Route Run, I actually like Moore in DFS lineups as a cheap sleeper. He is not, however, someone I would trust to win me a fantasy championship. I’d rather look to waiver options like Marquise Goodwin or K.J. Osborn.
Thirdly is the returning Corey Davis. Davis is the team’s deep threat decoy, producing 17.7 (No. 5) Yards per Reception while drawing a 14.1 (No. 10) yard Average Depth of Target and a 13-percent Target Share. In eight games this season, he’s produced four usable weeks. Injuries have kept Davis from stringing together performances throughout the season. I don’t expect much from Davis in his return. He’s drawn five-plus targets in only four games this season and may not even be the second option in the passing game at this point. Look to other waiver options if you’re thinking of playing Davis.
- Trevor will be laying down the Law-rence tonight.
- Travis Etienne has a dismal outlook.
- Jags pass catchers, particularly Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, are in for a big day.
- Zach Wilson is a reluctant start in 2QB leagues.
- Zonovan Knight has flex appeal, while Michael Carter has upside as a DFS play.
- Garrett Wilson is the only Jets receiver you can trust to win you a playoff game.
- Neither Jets Tight End has enough appeal to be started.
The Jaguars come into tonight’s matchup as a 1.5 point favorite. This matchup is a tale of two very different teams. Jacksonville is offensive-minded and has looked quite good in recent weeks, while the Jets are defensive-minded and have looked pitiful with Zach Wilson at the helm. The Jags are pushing for the playoffs, and the Jets are fighting to stay in the hunt. Yes, the Jets have been good against the spread following a loss this season, but this is going to be a matchup where the victor’s will is imposed, and the Jags just have more fight in them right now. The Jets will struggle to keep up offensively and will likely be playing from behind for the majority of the game. I’m taking Jacksonville to cover the spread en route to another win.
The point total is set at 36 points and is one of eight games this week with a total of under 40. The weather report doesn’t look great with rain in the forecast and wind gusts estimated at 20 mph. However, that’s not a damning forecast even if it comes to fruition. It’s tougher to score, yes, but I’m not letting this forecast completely derail how I’d expect the matchup to play out. Both of these teams play at a fast pace. I think Jacksonville pushes for this total by themselves and have a bad enough defense to where New York can finish the job. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but I like the OVER in this matchup.
- Spread: 7-10
- Total: 10-7
- Props: 20-10
Prediction: Jaguars 27-24