Dynasty Buys: Chase Edmonds and Bryan Edwards are Criminally Undervalued

by Matt Babich · Dynasty Leagues

“Everything has a price, but not everything should be for sale.” – Frank Sonnenberg

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, or in this case, the more informed dynasty owner. In a broad sense, roster management in fantasy football (dynasty in particular) and compiling a successful stock portfolio share a common priority; maximizing all assets’ return on investment. In both areas, those who put in the extensive research required to understand the market take advantage of those who do not. The uninformed stock and fantasy owners alike sleepwalk as the age-old “buy low, sell high” mantra reverberates around their heads, without conducting any research as to what or who is under/overvalued. 

Throughout the year, there is an ever-changing list of players who are screaming values. Analysts influence this list. When praises for a player are sung throughout the community, people tend to take notice and act. The goal is to beat the crowd. Today we’ll use PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats and metrics to help guide you through the biggest dynasty values in the league: Chase Edmonds and Bryan Edwards.

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Chase Edmonds

I wouldn’t be surprised if Chase Edmonds called up Kenyan Drake the moment he heard the news and offered to help him move to Vegas. Drake was the proverbial thorn in Edmond’s side, and the only one holding him back from the greatness he deserves. That thorn is gone. This moment created a hype wave for Edmonds. The wave’s dissipation upon James Conner signing with the Cardinals was undeserved. The hype began as a product of wishful thinking.

“If the Cardinals don’t go all in on a top running back prospect in the 2021 draft, then it’s Edmonds’ backfield.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1HFM7FffH0

Arizona has two picks in the first four rounds, and the defense lacks key pieces. Considering this, Conner’s signing indicates that the organization does not have plans to draft a running back in the first two rounds. No more wishful thinking. 

An Elite Receiver

We witnessed Edmond’s floor in this Arizona offense last season. While he did fall outside the top 20, we see elite pass-catching backs finish among the top 20 fantasy running backs without breaking 100 carries. Nyheim Hines (89 carries, No. 54 among qualified running backs) and J.D. McKissic (85 carries, No. 55) accomplished this feat last season. Edmonds earned his elite receiving back credentials in 2020. When the Cardinals passed the ball, he was on the field. He logged 289 (No. 6) routes run, resulting in a 50.3-percent (No. 14) Route Participation rate and a 12.5-percent (No. 11) Target Share. This yielded 53 (No. 7) receptions on 68 (No. 6) targets, with a 7.6 (No. 15) yards per reception average. He also recorded 40 (No. 3) slot snaps.

Conner poses little to no threat in the passing game to Edmonds. Expect to see at least another 70 targets and 50 receptions in 2021.

Efficiency For Days

Chase Edmonds has been efficient with his minimal carry totals over the last two seasons. He finished with 4.4 (No. 20) True Yards Per Carry, a metric valuing consistency, to Kenyan Drake’s 3.8 (No. 58) and James Conner’s 4.0 (No. 50) marks. I can already hear the responses to this.

“His TYPC doesn’t matter! 97 carries is too small of a sample size!”

When combining his 2019 and 2020 totals, his yards per carry average comes out to 4.78 over 157 carries. Given his TYPC’s relation to his yards per carry over these two seasons, we can assume his average falls within the 4.4-4.6 range.

Edmonds/Drake/Conner Efficiency Metrics Comparison

Factoring in both rushing and receiving, Drake and Conner’s touch efficiency doesn’t compare. Edmonds is far superior to both in yards per touch, Production Premium, and Expected Points Added.

A Fitting Comp

For whatever reason, it’s not “cool” to like Chase Edmonds right now. Apparently his efficiency and receiving usage mean nothing. Apparently proven, talented pass-catching backs have no history of playing that role for multiple seasons without significant carries, before eventually earning the opportunity share they deserve. We know that neither statement is true.

I can’t help but disagree with Nate here. Edmonds’ Best Comparable Player is Dion Lewis, who happens to be the player being brought into question. Lewis spent the 2015 and 2016 seasons stuffed behind LeGarrette Blount, who racked up 165 and 299 carries in those years. Lewis was the main pass catching back in 2015, but when James White came to town in 2016, Lewis found himself neutralized in the passing game. Blount’s hefty carry total went up for grabs in 2017.

Dion Lewis Career Stats Through 2017

Lewis had proved little at the NFL level, was undersized at 5-7 and 193-pounds, and was getting old. Yet he still racked up 180 carries and 32 receptions en route to a PPR RB19 finish at 27 years old. Edmonds is an equally, if not more talented runner and receives a much heavier usage in the passing game than Lewis. Edmonds has spent his career behind quality backs in Arizona. The narrative was that David Johnson was dust, but he wasn’t. The narrative was that Kenyan Drake was only worth a conditional sixth-round pick, but now he’s worth $14.5 million. Drake’s journey to Vegas frees up 239 carries. Can James Conner realistically take enough available carries to prevent Edmonds from getting enough touches to propel him into the top 15?

The Conner Factor

James Conner is an injury-prone plodder whose workload in Pittsburgh last season was mainly due to no backfield competition and a +1.71 (No. 8) Game Script mark. He averaged a mere 9.0 Fantasy Points per Game after midseason in 2020. Josh Larky provides the perfect summary of what we can expect from Conner on the Code Breaker podcast.

2020 RB Touch Counts – Top 30 PPR Running Backs

Arizona is a middle-of-the-pack team who will be in competitive games. In close games, teams can’t be predictable, they need to have the ability to be versatile. That is why Chase Edmonds will be on the field more. Kenyan Drake is an athlete. While he wasn’t heavily used in the passing game, he still adds far more dynamism than Conner ever will. Let’s be conservative and say Conner earns another 169 carries next season. That still gives Edmonds an additional 70, putting him at 167 and, let’s say, another 55 catches. Edmonds finished as the PPR RB25 with only 9.38 touches per game, lowest among top 30 backs. 222 total touches puts him at 13.875 touches per game over 16 games. This minimum projection total, along with his efficiency, puts him into the top 15.

Dynasty Value

Right now, on the Dynasty Dominator app, Chase Edmonds is worth this year’s 2.10 in 12 team, single QB leagues. With this class, you’re eyeing dart throws in that range like Kylin Hill, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jermar Jefferson, or worse. Expecting RBs in the prospect pool’s bottom 24 to finish top 20 within their two seasons is a fool’s errand. You can trade a low value pick right now for a top 15 running back. The lowest hanging fruit available.

Chase Edmonds Lifetime Value Comparison

There’s no rule against flipping value quickly. Player value is volatile. The more Edmonds performs well, the more his value will rise. We never wish for injuries, but James Conner has notable health issues. If he continues to have trouble staying on the field, we’ll be talking about a major increase in value. If the cards are played right, there will be leaguemates willing to pay more for Edmonds than what he’s worth right now during the season.

The case for Chase Edmonds is clear. He’s the secret code to get into the good analysts room. The Cardinals signing Conner over other free agents and rookies is a vote of confidence in Edmonds’ ability, not a warning sign. The stock is there for the taking 20 weeks before it skyrockets. It’s time to take advantage.

Bryan Edwards

To those who were all in on the 2021 rookie wide receiver class, last season was an absolute gift. Three rookie receivers that came in with high expectations saw noticeable dips in value: Jalen Reagor, Denzel Mims, and Bryan Edwards. For the record, I’m buying as much of these three that I can. Dynasty, Best Ball, Redraft, you name it. All three have incredible prospect profiles and, despite disappointing in the production department, are still all in positive situations. If you’re looking to go after Reagor or Mims, you’d be looking at paying the 2.06 and 2.10, respectively (or equivalent value).

Bryan Edwards Lifetime Value Comparison

The reason this portion of the article is dedicated to Edwards is that he’s the most attainable. With the lowest Lifetime Value of the three, his value comes out to be worth the 3.01 in 2021. For a guy with the fifth-highest Breakout Rating in the loaded 2021 receiver class : 


An Open Alpha Position

Bryan Edwards’ 2020 campaign started off on the wrong foot, because one was broken. He entered camp behind Nelson Agholor, whose success last season was surprising. Agholor may not be getting enough credit for how good he was for Las Vegas. In the previously mentioned Code Breaker episode, Josh Larky sheds a light on his impressive numbers. Dissimilar to any season he’s ever had, Agholor managed to average 18.7 (No. 2) yards per reception and a 15.5 (No. 5) Average Target Distance mark. Even more surprisingly, he led the Vegas receivers with a +26.3 (No. 6) Production Premium and +17.6-percent (No. 16) Target Premium.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZd913VAHoA

While Agholor ran a route tree in Vegas similar to what we saw from Edwards at South Carolina, his usage more closely mirrored field stretcher-status than alpha dog-status. Edwards, measuring in at 6-3 and 212-pounds, fits the alpha frame. At South Carolina, he recorded an eye-opening 48.4-percent (94th-percentile) College Dominator Rating despite facing competition from Deebo Samuel and Shi Smith. Edwards also broke out at age 17.8, the second-lowest Breakout Age in the PlayerProfiler database. He proved he had alpha potential before he could legally vote. John Brown and Henry Ruggs will handle the field-stretching duties. While this will hinder Edwards’ depth of target, he offers plenty of versatility in the deep game with more contested catch ability than Agholor. He gives the offense another solid option in the red zone, too.

Despite there being clear target competition with Darren Waller being the go-to, there is still plenty of production to be had in this offense. John Gruden and Mike Mayock have now said their goodbyes to Trent Brown, Rodney Hudson, and Gabe Jackson this offseason. A once-premiere offensive line group has been reduced to only Kolton Miller and Richie Incognito. With many missing pieces, and Maurice Hurst’s recent release, their defensive situation is even messier. Las Vegas played from behind for a majority of the 2020 season, facing a -2.71 (No. 22) Game Script average. This team will face even more negative situations next season, resulting in more pass attempts for Vegas and more targets for Edwards.

Bryan Edwards has all the tools he needs to succeed. His elite frame and college production are traits to bet on. If Edwards finishes at or above the mid-WR3 range in his age 22 NFL season, he should gain at least 30 additional Lifetime Value points. That would nearly double his current value. Given his talent and situation, this target finish is well within reach. If you have the chance to get out from under this downtrending, top-heavy 2021 class and nab Edwards in return, do it.