Austin Ekeler Free Agency Watch | Landing Spots and Free Agency Outlook

by Matt Babich · Contracts & Free Agency
Austin Ekeler Contract

PlayerProfiler is home to the very best dynasty rankings and tools in the industry. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out. This is PlayerProfiler’s 2024 Free Agency Preview. This year, we’ll be providing you with player-by-player insights as we approach the Free Agency period opening March 13th. In the last edition, we broke down the free agency outlook for Kirk Cousins. We’ll continue this series by examining the potential landing spots and outlook for free agent Chargers running back Austin Ekeler.

2023 Review

Austin Ekeler entered the 2023 season on a four-year streak of finishing as a top-10 fantasy running back. Before he even had a chance to continue the streak, his season was derailed. A high ankle sprain in Week 1 forced the veteran to miss the first quarter of the season and play through pain for an extended period of time.

Before his departure, Ekeler ripped up Miami for 164 total yards on 21 touches and a score, racking up 26 (No. 2) fantasy points. At first, following his return, it seemed as though he was ramping back up to normal production. After two dismal outings, he scored over 20 fantasy points in three consecutive weeks. However, he abruptly hit a downward spiral. Prior to Week 10, he averaged 19 touches per game. After, just 14.5.

Ekeler’s rushing efficiency was lackluster. His 3.3 (No. 62) True Yards Per Carry and a 2.2-percent (No .46) Breakaway Run Rate marked career lows. Given his ankle injury, it should be no surprise. It’s hard to get to full speed in backfield situations in that state, especially when the run blocking is bad and the offense is lifeless. That being said, it was clear that he was still an asset in the receiving game, posting 1.55 (No. 10) Yards Per Route Run on a 14.7-percent Target Share.

While he will enter the 2024 season as a 29-year-old running back, I’m not ready to wave the white flag on Ekeler’s relevancy. Returning early from a high ankle sprain to a bad offense is a suicide mission, especially for a running back. Despite that, he gave his all for his team. That’s who Austin Ekeler is. This certainly isn’t the end of the story.

Most Likely Landing Spots

Los Angeles Chargers

I’m sure Ekeler is Jim Harbaugh’s kind of guy: tough, gritty, and talented. Many expect Harbaugh to bring in talent through the NFL Draft. That can be true, and the Chargers can still opt to bring the incumbent starter back. Ekeler has been vocal about procuring a backfield partner to keep him fresh. I’m sure he’s pitched the benefit of having himself and some new blood in the building.

There isn’t a proven-enough asset in this year’s draft class to be able to challenge Ekeler’s ability, particularly in the passing game. With his age and recent production, it shouldn’t take much cash to lock in the veteran for next season. Although, the Chargers are already millions over the cap and will need to move some money around to make any offseason signing work.

Las Vegas Raiders

Rumors are swirling that Vegas could be the new home for Ekeler. The Raiders have a surplus of cap space and are far away from being seriously competitive. The team will have to spend money on something. Going out and getting a dynamic pass catching back for a couple million to pair with third year back Zamir White is not a bad way to spend that money.

Josh Jacobs, 26 years old with more dominant recent production, is sure to garner more money on the open market. If Vegas wants to spend optimally on their road to mediocrity (a step up from where they’ve been), they’ll pass on Jacobs and either sign a cheap veteran or try their hand in the Draft again.

Houston Texans

The Texans are a smart organization. They may be too smart to go out and sign an upper-echelon free agent running back like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs or Tony Pollard. Ekeler’s dynamism and pass catching ability would make him the perfect complement to a between-the-tackles back. This can be achieved through the draft, or signing a veteran like Gus Edwards.

The Texans wielded an adequate run game with Devin Singletary captaining the position group. They don’t need an all-star back to solidify the offense. Rather, they need the right running backs at a more optimal cost. Given Houston’s pass-first philosophy, Ekeler would mesh well with their roster and vision.

Kansas City Chiefs

There likely isn’t much realism to this, but what if the Chiefs offer Ekeler a short-term contract with the chance to win a Super Bowl before he retires? While Isiah Pacheco is a good pass catcher, he is not quite in Ekeler’s echelon. Further, the team doesn’t have much to choose from behind their starter. Jerick McKinnon is old and fragile, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn’t good.

They could opt to roll with what they have and make some dart throws in the Draft, or they could throw a couple million at Ekeler and see if he bites. Ekeler would add a new element of dynamism into Kansas City’s offense.

Predicted Landing Spot

Jim Harbaugh has gone on record saying he would like Ekeler to return as a Charger next season. I don’t put too much weight into that, given it’s rare for a coach to outwardly commit to not signing a particular player (especially a long-term veteran). Greg Roman, the new offensive coordinator, also had an eerie quote that leads me to believe the Chargers have a different vision for their backfield

Ultimately, I think the Chargers will make an offer. However, I think the offer that comes in from the Raiders will be bigger. The decision will come down to money, or a chance at being a part of the turning point of your only NFL franchise. I think Ekeler will choose to return to Los Angeles and make the most of the last days of his career, helping the new organization set up a Super Bowl willing franchise.