Why the fantasy football floor under Davante Adams is lower than you might think

The ability to convert targets into receptions matters, and Davante Adams has been a prolific pass dropper since entering the league. How inefficient has Davante Adams been through four seasons in Green Bay? His 7.08 yards per target is less than Jarvis Landry’s 7.12 yards per target over the same period. Let that sink in. 

In redraft leagues on, Davante Adams is going near the end of the second round with an average draft position of 22. In dynasty league startups, Adams is going even higher: in the first round. Dynasty owners everywhere seems to be frantically trying to obtain Adams as an ascending, back-to-back WR1 that is still only 25.5 years old.


Why Dylan Cantrell should replace Hunter Henry as the Chargers’ primary tight end

It’s time for the Los Angeles Chargers to convert Dylan Cantrell into a tight end for 2018. Dylan Cantrell is far and away more athletic than Hunter Henry. He’s faster, has more burst, is much more agile and has a better catch radius. If Henry can do what he does with what he has, imagine how much of an impact Cantrell could have? Cantrell is even more athletic than Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce.

With Hunter Henry out for the year, it would only make sense for Cantrell to switch to tight end and show the league how talented he is and how dominant he could be. As a tight end on a prolific offense, he could be the rookie that tears it up on fantasy teams in 2018.


The 3 most intriguing fantasy football wide receiver breakout candidates

The Tennessee front office cleared out the old “Exotic Smashmouth” regime, and brought in the defensive-minded Matt Vrabel for a fresh start. No one should benefit more from this turnover than Rishard Matthews. After a promising 2016 season where he hauled in nine scores on 105 targets, his 2017 season was a letdown.

With target hog Jarvis Landry gone to the Cleveland Browns, Kenny Stills could easily push for around 115 targets this season. Of the 263 wide receivers that were targeted 115 or times or more in the last decade, only 6.5-percent of them scored below 180 PPR points, per Pro Football Reference


Draft Kit Sneak Peek: Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins represents a massive quarterback upgrade for the Minnesota Vikings, but will improved QB play be nullified by a run-oriented game plan this season?

The Vikings were one of the rare NFL teams to devote more than 45-percent of team targets to the top-2 wide receivers on the depth chart in 2017, and the passing offense will likely run through Thielen and Diggs again in 2018.


Late Round Quarterback Strategy and Top QB Targets for Fantasy Football Drafts

Roethlisberger and Rivers are two experienced and proven QB1s that are very undervalued. Both were in the top seven last year and in the top ten the year before and now are suddenly being viewed as low-end QB2s. Roethlisberger’s 561 Attempts was fifth in the league last year. He was fifth in passing yards (4,251), third in Air Yards (2,451), third in Money Throws (24) and fifth in passing touchdowns (28).

Philip Rivers was third in Red Zone Attempts (102), seventh in Deep Ball Attempts (67), second in Passing Yards (4,495), and fifth in passing touchdowns (28). At 36 years old, neither Roethlisberger nor Rivers are not showing signs of age. Target one of these two veterans in 2018, and you will not regret it.


Draft Kit Sneak Peek: Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes will have to be fantastic to just match the deep-ball efficiency the Chiefs displayed as a team last year, and even if that materializes there is the matter of Watkins’ skill set overlapping with Hill’s in that area, and it is also hard to imagine Watkins seamlessly transitioning to his role in Kansas City.

Tyreek Hill was integral in Chiefs’ receivers leading the league in average target separation (1.95), a big reason Alex Smith enjoyed the second-highest deep ball completion percentage among starters. With substantially stronger-armed Mahomes taking over for Smith, the sky appears the limit, but there’s no doubt Hill experienced an efficiency boom on downfield targets in 2017.


Draft Kit Sneak Peek: New Orleans Saints

Many will note Alvin Kamara is due for efficiency regression this offseason, but it’s easier to overlook how his end-of-season opportunity numbers were stunted a bit both due to under-utilization in the first quarter of the season and a concussion on the first drive of New Orleans’ Week 14 game that was killer for fantasy owners.

The Saints’180 RB targets from 2017 are right in line with a more-than-decade-long positional average, and since the Saints have an established baseline is in that range, a strong argument could be made that we see them eclipse that number in 2018. With Ingram out for the first four weeks, Kamara is in a great position to actually build on his 100-target rookie season.


Do rookie quarterback struggles result in fantasy football value gains?

It intuitively makes sense that rookie quarterbacks should be cheaper to acquire going into their sophomore seasons after struggling as rookies. In spite of these struggles, the majority of recent first round QBs have actually gained value heading into their second seasons.

In order to accrue dynasty value year-over-year, it would be wise to spend second and third round picks on highly drafted rookie quarterbacks.


Draft Kit Sneak Peek: Los Angeles Rams

There are positive indicators underwriting Gurley’s massive 2017 turnaround, but he also blew away the league’s RBs in areas where a repeat performance in 2018 might be difficult, and they open the question of whether a back with a history of knee issues is worth the first overall fantasy pick.

We know Sean McVay and the Rams will seek to exploit the edges presented in the modern game. That should help mitigate any efficiency regression, and while it might be maddening on a week-to-week basis to own any of the WRs, getting a piece of a highly-concentrated and productive offense is rarely a losing bet, so long as it isn’t too pricey to make.


The Kalen Ballage-Alvin Kamara parallels are shocking

There is no rookie running back more polarizing than Miami Dolphin Kalen Ballage. He is the perfect size and has the necessary skills for a dominant running back. Physically, he is a hybrid of David Johnson and Todd Gurley and could end up being the Dolphin’s de facto RB1.

If Ballage gets the opportunity, he could be the Alvin Kamara Corollary, proving that both an underrated college resume and athleticism profile can predict success two years in a row. If he can somehow harness all of gifts together, he will not only become fantasy relevant, but will ascend to being the most talked about running back in football in 2018.