Stay or Go: Who to hold and who to drop for Week 11

Kyle Rudolph owns a robust 87.1-percent (No. 7 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share and has at least five targets in three of his last four games. All signs point to him maintaining this run heading into the fantasy playoffs. He has the trust of his quarterback in the red zone, and touchdowns are key in fantasy.

A real problem for Baker Mayfield is what happens when the Browns hit the red zone, specifically his 40.0-percent (No. 45) Red Zone Completion Percentage. While he might have the occasional game or two with a decent amount of fantasy points, he cannot be trusted and is better left alone as a desperation option.


Fantasy Football Trends to Watch – Week 11 Edition

One of fantasy football’s biggest busts to open the season, O.J. Howard finally made an appearance in the box score on Sunday. In a dream matchup against the Cardinals, Howard recorded four catches for 47 yards and a score. More importantly, he played 100-percent of Arizona’s snaps for the first time this season and ran a route on 85-percent of Jameis Winston’s dropbacks.

Returning from a multi-week suspension, Kareem Hunt immediately stepped into a prominent role in Cleveland’s offense in Week 10. While this makes for one of the best backfields in football, it creates a headache for fantasy owners. With the Browns sitting at 3-6, Hunt’s involvement could vary based on game script.


Drew Brees and Other Week 10 Fantasy Busts

Uncharacteristically, the Falcons sacked Drew Brees six times and held him to 287 scoreless yards. It is good to note that he still managed almost 300 yards, a 71.1-percent completion percentage and zero interceptions in his poor game. Though he’s only played four games in 2019, the advanced metrics show he can still be trusted.

Two weeks in a row! Even without Adam Thielen in the lineup, Stefon Diggs failed to produce again. Unfortunately for Diggs, Dalvin Cook ate up seven targets and Kyle Rudolph vultured two touchdowns. More than that, his 12.1 (No. 8 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility is becoming a nuisance.


Brian Hill Bellcow and Other Week 10 Waiver Targets

When Ito Smith was moved to injured reserve, Brian Hill was locked into more volume. When Devonta Freeman injured his ankle, Hill became the bellcow. With Freeman’s injury expected to cost him a few weeks, it’s time to get excited to see what the more athletic, 219-pound Hill can do with the lead role.

In Week 10, Darius Slayton’s whopping 14 targets accounted for 37-percent of New York’s total and a 58-percent share of the team’s Air Yards. He is playing nearly all of the offensive snaps for the Giants, and he has clearly established a rapport with Daniel Jones. Fantasy snobbery in the form of ignoring Slayton’s rookie season production is self-defeating. 

christian kirk fantasy football

Week 10’s Lessons Learned: Christian Kirk Ascension Game

Christian Kirk has been adjusting to life in the NFL and officially came out with 10 receptions for 138 receiving yards and three touchdowns as he shredded the Tampa Bay “secondary.” He consistently got off the line a step ahead of coverage and straight up outran his man for his first two scores.

Darius Slayton saw 14 targets in the back and forth affair with the Jets, reeling in 10 for 121 and two scores, one of which where he did almost all the work himself on a mad dash through the entire Jets’ secondary. With Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram ailing, Slayton has a massive opportunity to capitalize on after the Giants Week 11 bye.


Wide Receiver vs. Cornerbacks Matchups to Target: Week 10

Marquise Brown has had an up and down fantasy season, but there’s no denying he’s the real deal. After an impressive win against New England’s top-ranked defensive unit, he and the Ravens head to Cincinnati to take on the No. 31 passing DVOA Bengals defense, per Footballoutsiders.

Tyreek Hill is one of the most efficient receivers in the game right now, which makes his matchup against Adoree’ Jackson even more appealing. His skill set as a separator on a per play basis is exactly the type to give Jackson trouble. He is a mismatch for nearly any defender in the NFL but in Week 10, he’s a mismatch standing in front of Jackson.


The Long Gain: Bargain Running Backs to Target in Week 10

Considering the favorable matchup against Detroit, and the fact that Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t done much to keep the Bears on the field this season, fire up David Montgomery as he looks to keep the offense moving for the Bears in the second half of the 2019 season.

The Miami Dolphins currently allow +6.15 fantasy points above the mean to opposing running backs this season. If history is any indicator, Marlon Mack should be ready to feast. In a wheels up week, he should become the most recent player to run through, over and around the Dolphins.


DraftKings Value Plays and GPP Targets for Week 10

In addition to strong volume and efficiency metrics, Chris Godwin draws a tantalizing matchup against a weak Arizona Cardinals secondary. He specifically projects to face off against Byron Murphy, who has allowed a 138.2 (No. 74 among qualified cornerbacks) Passer Rating Allowed in his coverage, setting up Godwin for a productive fantasy outing in Week 10.

With Brandin Cooks suffering his second concussion this year, Josh Reynolds stepped up to play a major role in the Rams’ offense last week. Reynolds played 88-percent of the Rams’ snaps, while receiving eight targets and generating 138 Air Yards. Priced at just $3,800, that volume deserves a long look on an already tight Week 10 slate.


Michael Thomas and the Lock Button Plays for Week 10

Michael Thomas hasn’t scored fewer than 16 fantasy points in any contest. He leads all wideouts in Target Share, receptions and receiving yards. Thomas is top-five in Completed Air Yards, yards after the catch and red zone receptions. It’s no surprise that he is first in fantasy points per game among wide receivers.

Even with Mike Evans’ recent dominance, Chris Godwin is still sixth among qualified wide receivers in receptions and top-five in receiving yards and fantasy points per game. Considering the Cardinals pace of play, and that this game has the highest over/under of the week, Godwin’s Week 10 ceiling is massive.


Stay or Go: Who to hold and who to drop for Week 10

Diontae Johnson has shown more consistency than any other Steelers receiver beside JuJu Smith-Schuster. He has an 86.7-percent (No. 27 among qualified wide receivers) True Catch Rate which, combined with his 2.58 (No. 1) Target Separation score, means he only needs consistent targets to flourish in the Steelers system.

Tarik Cohen used to be a dynamic fantasy player. He has seen his playing time decrease with the breakout of rookie running back David Montgomery. Cohen averages 30 yards per game with only one touchdown, and that simply won’t get it done. He hasn’t done much with the touches he has gotten, evidenced by his putrid 14 (No. 80) Yards Created.