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Lessons Learned in the Divisional Round: Derrick Henry’s Legendary Heater

The Titans are for real. They’re 7.5-point road dogs to Kansas City, who just exacted a wild comeback on Houston. Derrick Henry defies logic, and while Kansas City’s defense has improved, Henry has obliterated better defenses than theirs for months. Over the past eight weeks, he’s averaged 159 rushing yards, with only two games under 149 and none under 86. We can’t, in good conscience, persuade anyone to fade the most unstoppable force in football right now.

Allen Lazard will be overlooked as a mid-to-low-range receiver option, especially after he disappeared last week. He came on strong late in the season though, so we’re keeping the faith this week. Aaron Jones will likely go under-owned against a ferocious 49ers DL that shut down Dalvin Cook last week, but Jones-Derrick Henry-Damien Williams is a mighty hard trio to to fade based on talent and expected opportunity.

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Fanduel Conference Championship Breakdown

In cash and tournaments, both Travis Kelce ($7,800) and George Kittle ($7,00) are great plays. Even running both in the same lineup is an option and is likely the best option in cash this week. Kittle is a must-stack for those playing Jimmy Garoppolo in tournaments. He’s accounted for 26.5-percent of his team’s passing yards and scores, second to only Mark Andrews among tight ends.

Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,600) and the 49ers are 7.5-point home-favorites this week, and they are a team that has excelled in that spot this year. They average a 6.6-point differential versus the spread when they’re favored at home and their games average an additional 4.6 points more than the total would indicate in this scenario. If Garoppolo can parlay his deep ball accuracy into a shootout, pivoting off KC/TEN stacks will be the path to win tournaments.

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Breaking Down the DraftKings Conference Championship Slate

If the Titans finally trail against a good offense, A.J. Brown should bounce back in a big way. During the regular season, he was the most efficient receiver around, boasting a +52.4 (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium and a 132.5 (No. 3) QB Rating When Targeted. When his targets rise this week, he’ll smash his cheap price based on his efficiency this season. He’s a great play for running back-heavy lineups.

Jonnu Smith is the ideal punt play for those looking to pay way down at tight end. He’s used his athleticism and 127.0 (93rd-precentile) SPARQ-x score after the catch the entire season. His 6.2 Yards After The Catch Per Target actually ranked ahead of Kittle’s 5.3. He can do just as much damage as the other big tight ends on this slate and he’ll save gamers thousands in salary.

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2020 Running Back Prospects with Phenom Potential

The wide receivers in the 2020 class have received substantial hype recently. However, based on their early-career production in college, the 2020 running backs remain the true value in upcoming rookie drafts. When a back checks both the Breakout Age and draft capital boxes, it should be noted. So far, at least three backs that check both boxes have declared for the NFL draft: Florida State’s Cam Akers, Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor and Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins.

J.K. Dobbins never relinquished his stranglehold on the starting running back job after starter Mike Weber got hurt, averaging 7.2 yards per carry for over 1,400 yards rushing in his freshman season at 18 years old. He bookended his college career with punctuation marks by posting 2,003 yards this season. Dobbins was the model of consistency in his time at Ohio State. In each of his three seasons, he ran for over 1,000-yards and caught over 20 passes.

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First-Round Prospects to Watch for at the NFL Scouting Combine

Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins may be the best pick of this particular bunch of rookie running backs. Dobbins rushed for 2,003 yards in 2019, adding to his tally as the second-most productive back in the nation between 2017 and 2019. He has been pegged as a complete player at his position, and a strong showing in the Combine’s athleticism drills should make him the first back taken in the draft. Listed at 5-10, 216-pounds, his 40-yard dash time will be one to wait for.

Like the running backs, there are a host of wide receivers that may hear their names called within the first 32 picks. A strong Combine showing would certainly aid them in this goal. CeeDee Lamb of Oklahoma is sure to be among the first wideouts taken. Lamb had 3,292 yards in his three years as a Sooner at an absurd 19.0 yards per reception average. He also has some special teams experience, with 54 punt returns in his career. We should be looking with great interest at his 40-yard dash time.

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Fanduel Divisional Round Breakdown: Sunday

Damien Williams ($7,300) is a great cash play because of the discrepancy between his price and volume. Williams has struggled to stay healthy this year, but his last four full games have been telling. He averaged 18.3 touches for 120 total yards and 1.1 scores. In the 2018 playoffs, Andy Reid chose to make him their every-down back and it paid off for the Chiefs and for his fantasy investors. Run right back to the well this year.

Allen Lazard has played on at least half of the Packers snaps for the past seven weeks and he’s earned a particularly lucrative role in the past two. His 39 and 25 routes run were second on the team in both weeks. They were also season-highs for Lazard. On a site that disproportionately rewards touchdowns, the role of Aaron Rodgers’ second receiver is cash viable at $5,400.

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Breaking Down the DraftKings Divisional Weekend Slate

While Lamar Jackson’s best attribute is his rushing, he put any doubters to sleep this season by leading the league with 36 passing scores. With 1,213 yards and seven scores on the ground this season, Jackson possesses the highest floor among quarterbacks. He also hit the 100-yard rushing bonus in five games, which no other QB on the slate did once.

DraftKings is begging us to play Travis Kelce at $6400. Not only did he finish either No. 1 or No. 2 in every major receiving category at his position, but he also posted at least 9.8 fantasy points in all but one game (Week 17) this season. The Chiefs also have the highest implied team total on the slate, giving Kelce the most touchdown equity at the position. With some solid value at wide receiver, it makes sense to pay up for his combination of floor and ceiling.

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Fanduel Divisional Round Breakdown: Saturday

The 49ers have the second-highest team total of the slate at 25.5, and Jimmy Garoppolo has shown a decent amount of upside this season. His three games with four passing scores are second only to Lamar Jackson. Jimmy GQ was a top-10 passer in 2019 by a number of advanced metrics. Most importantly, he’s the No. 1 Deep Ball passer by completion percentage among qualified quarterbacks, an important skill for tournament-winning signal callers to possess.

Raheem Mostert ($6,800) is the lead back for a 7.5-point home favorite and still may end up the least popular starting running back on a slate with four teams. He’s seen double-digit carries in each of the past five games and has scored a touchdown in six straight. Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida have peaked at six and seven touches respectively over the previous five. Mostert is possibly the only way to roster low-owned running back touches on Saturday.

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Fanduel Wild Card Breakdown: Sunday

The Sunday slate features the two highest totals of the weekend, so the cash options at quarterback are much more bountiful. However, Russell Wilson ($8,200) is the only one with a rushing floor. Wilson ended the 2019 regular season with 75 (No. 5 among qualified quarterbacks) carries, 13 (No. 8) red zone carries and 342 (No. 6) rushing yards. Between his rushing production and passing efficiency, there are too few ways for Wilson to fail to not play him in cash.

The blueprint for Dallas Goedert chalk week was set a few days ago when Joshua Perkins ($5,100) outscored him by 4.5 points. Goedert played every snap and saw 10 targets. However, Perkins took the field for 78.4-percent of the Eagles’ snaps and was targeted six times. All it takes is one touchdown swing for Perkins to put up more fantasy points than Goedert, who will still be upwards of 10 times as popular. This is the type of leverage that tournament players dream of.

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FanDuel Wild Card Breakdown: Saturday

Josh Allen ($8,200) is the preferred target in GPP’s, with no player bringing forth his level of upside. As always, there’s serious rushing upside with Allen. He ended the 2019 regular season with 109 (No. 2 among qualified quarterbacks) carries, 22 (No. 2) red zone carries and nine (No. 1) rushing touchdowns. A multi-touchdown game on the ground likely breaks the entire slate, and that’s well within his range of outcomes.

If playing Josh Allen at quarterback, John Brown ($6,800) is so highly correlated with him that we have to fit him into our lineups. Most of Allen’s deep pass volume has come through Brown. He’s in rarefied company based on his volume, and Allen has done a phenomenal job feeding him the ball, evidence by a 7.0 (No. 13) Target Quality Rating. Against a Houston defense that allows an NFL fourth-most 267.2 passing yards per game, how can we not go overweight on the Brown/Allen combo?