Christian Kirk, Emmanuel Sanders, and Week 1 Usage Rates

by Joshua Kellem, September 19, 2021

While Christian Kirk’s not a full-time player, he’s manning the slot role (76.5-percent slot rate) in a high-powered offense. That means he’ll have a high floor. Also, the Cardinals-Vikings implied point total is one of 11 games to break the 50-point mark. While the Vikings’ DVOA is nothing to write home about – ranking No. 18, including No. 21 in pass DVOA. The Cardinals ranked sixth in situation-neutral pace last week as well. More plays = more fantasy points.

The downside for Jared Cook in a great matchup is that his Route Participation rate is a lowly 59.6-percent. That said, his Target Rate is an elite 28.6-percent, so the participation (and Snap Share) can just be the Chargers monitoring Cook’s snaps. Basically, when he is on the field, he is not running empty routes. The Chargers offense totaled 47 pass attempts last week as well. It’s time to smell what the Chargers offense is cooking.

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The Infirmary- Week 2 Injury Report

by The “Mad Chatter” Ryan MK, September 19, 2021

The first week of the 2021 NFL season did not disappoint in many ways. From the opening game to the wild events of the Monday Nighter in Vegas, fans were treated to the usual week one madness and then some. Unfortunately, another aspect carried on like clockwork; injuries. Luckily, The Infirmary is here to keep fantasy managers up to speed. Week 2, bring it on.

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Week 2 DraftKings Upside Finder and Value Finder Pick

by Ray Marzarella, September 18, 2021

As mentioned in Volume II of The Pareto Principals, this week’s lineups need to be constructed around whether this Cowboys-Chargers game will be the focus. A high projected point total, a top-10 Pace of Play after one week, and all of his pass-catchers enjoying favorable matchups makes Justin Herbert a worthwhile focal point in Week 2 lineups. Especially with more projected points than Dak Prescott at $100 cheaper on DraftKings.

Given the allure of sexier on-paper matchups, this Buffalo-Miami game represents an interesting pivot point for Week 2 DFS tournaments. And with both Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders locking up with top-15 cornerbacks, the stage is set for a vintage two-score Cole Beasley performance as he goes up against No. 47-ranked Nik Needham. At $4,600, he’s another potential naked, salary-saving play.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 2

by Edward DeLauter, September 18, 2021

After missing the majority of the preseason with a hand injury, D.J. Chark appeared to be the Jaguars primary passing target in Week 1, seeing 12 targets. Unfortunately, he caught three of these targets for 86 receiving yards, leaving most of his Air Yards unrealized. As Chark and rookie Trevor Lawrence are likely working through some chemistry issues, Chark remains a intriguing DFS play as he is only $100 in price away from making the value list.

Anthony Schwartz split snaps with Donovan Peoples-Jones in his rookie debut, but the burner rookie out scored Peoples-Jones, amassing 11.6 fantasy points. Schwartz and his 4.32 Pro Day-adjusted 40-Yard Dash time, was the clear downfield downfield threat for the Browns last week posting a 25.2 Average Target Distance. With Odell Beckham out again this week, and Cleveland set to square off against an exploitable Houston Texans secondary, Schwartz makes for an ideal cost saving play in tournaments.

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Dynasty Market Movers – Week 1 Report

by Steve Smith, September 18, 2021

With Trey Sermon inactive and Raheem Mostert suffering a knee injury, Elijah Mitchell saw an 82.6-percent Opportunity Share. He produced a True Yards Per Carry Rate of 4.9 (No. 13 among qualified RBs) with 7 (No. 4) Evaded Tackles and a 36.8-percent (No. 5) Juke Rate. It’s fully expected that the 49ers will involve multiple RBs. However, Mitchell is the elite athlete of the group on a team that’s likely to face plenty of positive Game Script.

Those who tuned into NFL Top-10 (plus) Takeaways already know that The Podfather is worried about Tua Tagovailoa. Miami inched by the Patriots 17-16, but Tua was anything but sharp. Looking past the box score we find 4 (No. 3) Danger Plays and 4 (No. 4) Interceptable Passes. Tagovailoa had an abysmal 37.3 (No. 31) True Passer Rating and a 7.0 (No. 24) Accuracy Rating. He loses 10.23 Lifetime Value points and lands outside of the Top 20 QBs in our dynasty rankings.

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Week 2 WR-CB Matchups – Start/Sit WR Decisions

by Aaron Stewart, September 18, 2021

Diontae Johnson was a top-10 WR in Week 1 in Target Share (31.3-percent), Hog Rate (25.0-percent), and Target Rate (37.0-percent). However, Johnson will face stiff coverage from Casey Hayward (No. 17-ranked CB) in a game that the Steelers are projected to handle with ease. Volume is key to fantasy points scored. In 2020, Johnson averaged 19.44 fantasy points in seven games he ran 40-plus routes. In six games (excluding injuries) that he ran under 40 routes, he averaged 14.0 fantasy points.

Has Ja’Marr Chase relegated Tee Higgins to the 1B passing option in Cincinnati with Tyler Boyd as a target-stealing No. 3? Possibly. Chase more than doubled Higgins’ 48 (No. 58) Air Yards, while Chase’s 26.9-percent (No. 12) Target Share dwarfed Higgins’ 19.2-percent (No. 41). Against a lesser cornerback in Bashaud Breeland last week, Higgins secured a 10.0-percent (No. 73) Hog Rate. Joe Burrow will not force-feed targets to him if he can’t beat Jaylon Johnson (No. 20-ranked CB).

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Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 2

by Cornhole God, September 18, 2021

Noah Fant’s advanced metrics make it impossible to resist the drool-worthy 50.5 receiving yards line on Underdog Fantasy. His opportunity metrics will continue to impress in Week 2 with the absence of Jerry Jeudy. Clearly, Fant’s 83.3-percent (No. 9 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share shows that he is always in the game, and his 28 (No. 7) Routes Run means that he is generating opportunity for targets. Moreover, he delivered with a 22.9-percent (No. 5) Target Share and a whopping 8 (No. 3) Targets!

The under feels so right when you consider Robby Anderson’s Week 1 results coupled with his matchup against the Saints. In the case of his Week 1 performance, he only mustered 3 Targets with a 9.1-percent (No. 84) Target Share last week against the lowly Jets secondary. Targets won’t come any easier this week against a Saints defense that only allowed 186 passing yards to the Packers.

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks For Week 2

by Dookie Hogue, September 17, 2021

Going back to the well with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins should pay off in Week 2. Only Jameis Winston (legit shocker) threw for more Passing Touchdowns than Murray in Week 1. Priced up as the most expensive quarterback and wide receiver pairing, here’s a situation where paying up to be contrarian could be the separator needed to bink.

The Cowboys/Chargers game will be popular and for good reason. Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert ranked second and fourth in Attempts Per Game after one week of action (47 and 40 attempts respectively.) The games’ slate high 55 point implied game total tells a story that Vegas expects another shootout too. Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper lead their respective teams equally each with a 28-percent Target Share. This makes for a logical stacking combination.

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Targeting Games for DFS Week 2 Matchups

by Chase Vernon, September 17, 2021

DFS Week 2 matchups are going to be exciting. All four o-clock games are projected to go over 50 points, with the Eagles-49ers expected to do the same. In other words: You need to hit big. Three touchdowns and 300 yards from your quarterbacks shouldn’t be likely; it has to be a lock.

If there were ever a game to cite volume over matchup, Cowboys at Chargers would be the one. And not on the side of the Chargers. Keenan Allen is one of my favorite targets, if not my favorite in my top-rated DFS Week 2 matchup. However, the Cowboys receivers are a completely different story. Yes, the Cowboys have a prolific offense and this matchup is marked as one of the highest-scoring on the slate. We could see something similar to the Browns with a superb defense versus Chiefs elite-level offense from Week 1, except the Chargers defense could be the best in the league. 

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The Pareto Principals Volume 2: Twenty Questions, Few Answers

by Jakob Sanderson, September 17, 2021

If I had one regret last week, it was not opting for a Chiefs double-stack. Given the attraction of Cardinals-Titans and Eagles-Falcons, the Chiefs became underplayed relative to their upside and projection. Ultimately I made the choice to avoid lineups that forced me into playing multiple, cheap chalk receivers such as Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore, and Marquez Callaway. However, with viable options such as Jaylen Waddle available and productive at low ownership, it was worth attempting.

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Chargers-Cowboys game may be high scoring this week. With an over-under of 54.5 and a tight spread, DFS players from near and far are making the pilgrimage to jam Chargers and Cowboys into their DraftKings lineups this week. In early week PFF ownership projections, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, and Ceedee Lamb all rank among the top four rostered receivers. The first decision you need to make for each lineup this week is whether this game will be the focus of your entry. The rest of your lineup needs to be constructed around that basis from an ownership perspective.

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