The Week 10 TNF Showdown features the Falcons at the Panthers. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. Without further ado, let’s see what Atlanta and Carolina have in store for us as in an NFC South rematch.
Advanced stats and analytics will be utilized to identify favorable matchups and players to avoid. The purpose of this article is to paint a picture of how the teams play and match up with one another in less than 1,500 words.
As the season continues, less emphasis will be put on last season and early season’s stats. Vegas trends will also be implemented to help predict the game flow. I’ll conclude the article with a Cliff Notes section and give the readers my prediction for the game.
- Atlanta is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 6 games.
- Atlanta is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road.
- Carolina is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina’s last 9 division games.
- Carolina is 3-0 ATS in their 3 divisional games this season.
- A.J. Terrell (Hamstring, Questionable)
- No listed injuries
The Atlanta Falcons
Marcus Mariota‘s middle name must be ‘miracle’ because not many predicted he’d be the Falcons starting quarterback this long. Despite 30 (No. 12) Deep Ball Attempts, he throws one of the worst deep balls in the league. He missed Kyle Pitts for a walk-in long ball by a mile on Sunday. He’s the poster child for an inefficient backup, yet he produces 0.64 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Dropback. While the Falcons run near a league-low in pass attempts, it’s worth noting that Mariota has thrown for over 300 air yards in two straight close Game Scripts, including a game vs Carolina. It might be ugly, and there will be low points, but Mariota is a QB2 with a big-play upside and a rushing role. I expect a QB2 performance in what should be a slower grudge match on a slow week.
The world must know about this missed connection between Marcus Mariota and Kyle Pitts 😔
— Mojo Markets (@mojo) November 6, 2022
Sundays just feel more electric when Cordarrelle Patterson is in the lineup. He led the backfield in carries and snaps while finding the endzone twice in his return. He’s the lead back in Atlanta, with rookie Tyler Allgeier earning his fair share of the opportunities. Patterson has been used in a concerning way as he’s being handed five more carries and nearly three fewer targets per game from last season. Even in a run-heavy offense, Patterson’s upside relies on chunk plays and touchdowns. Not great, Bob. With the level of opportunity and the frequent red zone usage, Patterson is still an RB2 especially against a Carolina run defense that ranks No. 22 in Rush DVOA.
TNF Prop No. 1: Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards
Speaking of the rookie, Tyler Allgeier held down the fort while Patterson was sidelined. He’s not a better back than Patterson by any means. There’s little on Allgeier’s advanced stats sheet that impresses you. He’s been an ineffective and in-elusive runner, chalking up 4.2 (No. 32) True Yards per Carry and a 28.0-percent (No. 23) Juke Rate. He has, however, been an effective pass catcher in his six target sample size. With the reigns back on Patterson, Allgeier drops to being an RB3 with RB2 upside. He has flex appeal in deeper leagues versus a porous Panthers run defense.
Chalk up another win for the analytics nerds. Arthur Smith is beginning to realize that getting your studs the football isn’t just good for fantasy football. He’s earned a red zone target in three of the four games since his return from a one-game absence, drawn 16 targets over the past two games, and saw over 200 air yards on Sunday. At this point, you can’t blame play-calling for the lack of production. He has a 27.2-percent (No. 2) Target Share on the season and 643 (No. 2) Air Yards, which is drowned out by a 60.9-percent (No. 31) Catchable Target Rate and a 4.04 (No. 26) Target Quality Rating. In the face of adversity, Pitts still complies with 2.13 (No. 5) Yards per Route Run. Pitts has been the engine of the passing offense as of late, and I expect that to continue tonight.
TNF Prop No. 2: Kyle Pitts OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards
A similar sentiment can be shared for Drake London, although we don’t have a boom game to hold onto. London averaged eight targets (one red zone) and 80.5 Air Yards per game in Weeks 1-4, leading to 13.78 fantasy points per game. After a nosedive, his rookie flight needs to steady its course quickly. His usage past Week 4 has been borderline criminal. He has yet to see a game of over 70 Air Yards since Week 4 and recorded his first red zone target in the last five games on Sunday. He’s a WR4 until he starts converting on his opportunities.
The Carolina Panthers
This may be P.J. Walker, Carolina Ranger’s, last ride as the sheriff of the Panther’s offense. Despite being yanked from Sunday’s match against the Bengals, he was named as Thursday’s starter. Walker is possibly the least talented of the three Panther’s quarterbacks, but he plays safe football. With Walker, Carolina can establish the run and rely on a “dink and dunk” pass offense only when needed. He’s yet to score 18 fantasy points in a game in his career even with a career-high 36 pass attempts and 317 passing yards against Atlanta two weeks ago. With his back against the wall, I expect Walker to play it safe and disappoint those who start him expecting a Week 8 redux.
Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield don’t make these plays.
P.J. Walker starting the rest of 2022
— Jack Cavanagh (@javanagh87) October 24, 2022
D’Onta Foreman has shined in the spotlight, generating 263 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 7 and 8. He’s a volume-based play. His 4.4 (No. 26) True Yards per Carry is respectable, but he doesn’t evade tackles or break off long runs at a high rate. When Foreman sees double-digit carries, he produces. The case against him is that he has little-to-no involvement in the passing game, and Chuba Hubbard will likely be back in the lineup this week. Hubbard was (and is) the more efficient back during Week 7’s game prior to injuring his ankle. Hubbard is more elusive, more efficient, and has a receiving profile. In a neutral-to-negative Game Script, don’t be surprised when Hubbard out-touches Foreman. Both are RB2’s this week, with Hubbard having a higher floor.
TNF Prop No. 3: P.J. Walker UNDER 179.5 Passing Yards
After a resurgence under Walker, D.J. Moore faced the struggles of playing alongside Baker Mayfield last week. Moore caught two of his five targets from the QB. After seemingly being unlocked, the Panther’s reverted to using Moore closer to the line of scrimmage. Moore has been Walker’s safety net, drawing 28 targets and a 13.5-yard Average Depth of Target in his three full games played. Earning 27-percent of the team’s targets and 43-percent of their Air Yards, Moore is a WR2 while Walker is under the helm. Expect the Panthers to get back to basics and put the ball in Moore’s hands.
Remember when Terrace Marshall was a prolific college athlete and an ultra-promising prospect? Of course, you do. It was *checks watch* less than two years ago. After continuing to look like a bust in Year 2, it all clicked against Atlanta. The sophomore has earned 15 targets (three red zone) on a 22.7-percent Target Share in the past two games, and he turned them into seven receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown. He’s a legit talent, and the Panthers will continue to use him like one. Marshall is a WR3 with top-20 upside if he finds the endzone.
Carolina is full of surprising resurgences. Moore and Marshall have been the obvious ones, but one still flying under the radar is sophomore tight end Tommy Tremble. Tremble hasn’t had the breakout game just yet, but he is slowly getting more involved in the passing game. He’s earned four targets in each of the past two weeks and scored a touchdown in two of the last three. Tremble is a promising dark horse to score a touchdown against a defense that struggles versus tight ends at +330 odds (FanDuel).
- The upside of both quarterbacks is extremely limited in this matchup.
- Kyle Pitts needs to be force-fed in the passing game.
- There’s still hope for Drake London, but not this week.
- Chuba Hubbard > D’Onta Foreman when healthy.
- Trust the opportunity with D.J. Moore and Terrace Marshall.
- Tommy Tremble sneaky scorer of the week.
The Falcons waltz into Carolina as 3-point favorites with a -148 Money-Line. It’s reasonable to say that neither team deserved to win the last time they faced each other. Atlanta’s defense is still without A.J. Terrell, but the backups have been performing well. Despite the Falcons being terrible on paper, they’re competing. They have the better offense, a similar defense, and the will to fight for a playoff berth. Expecting an ugly game, I don’t really want to take a side on the spread. Nevertheless, I persist. I’m fading the public and taking Carolina to cover the spread in a divisional grudge match.
The point total is set at 43.5 points. Choosing a lean here is much easier. Everything about this match screams under, yet the over is getting the public money. These two teams just played one another and have a short week after traveling to their respective opponents on Sunday. Neither offense is high-powered and, although they don’t have great rosters on paper, both defenses have shown the ability to control the pace of the game. I gave you my over play of the year two weeks ago, and now I’m bringing you my locked-and-loaded UNDER of the year play with this matchup.
- Spread: 4-5
- Total: 5-4
- Props: 8-6
Prediction: Panthers 20-18