Week 11 MNF Showdown: New York Giants At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by Matt Babich, November 22, 2021

Advanced stats and analytics will be utilized to identify favorable matchups and players to avoid. The purpose of this article is to paint a picture of how the teams play and matchup with one another in less than 1,000 words.

As the season continues, less emphasis will be put on last season and early season’s stats. Vegas trends will also be implemented to help predict the game flow. I’ll conclude the article with a Cliff Notes section and give the readers my prediction for the game.

Welcome to the newest edition of Monday Night Showdown. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in every Monday night matchup.

Yet again I have to get to write about a New York Giants primetime football game. Without further ado, let’s take a dive into this week’s matchup between the pesky Giants and the slumping Buccaneers.

Vegas Trends

    • NY Giants are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of NY Giants’ last 16 games.
    • NY Giants are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games on the road.
    • Tampa Bay are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games.
    • Tampa Bay are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games at home.

New York Giants

Danny Dimes and Saquon Barkley

Daniel Jones comes into this game with a shaky 16.6 (No. 20 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points per Game to face a Buccaneers defense desperate for a get-right game. He’s been erratic and inaccurate, with 20 (No. 9) Danger Plays and a 7.0 (No. 32) Accuracy Rating. He’s capable of putting up big games, but he’s just as likely to dud. Jones is a middle-of-the-road play in 2QB leagues as he looks to lock down his first career primetime win.

If you still have Saquon Barkley in your lineup, you probably have a backup plan in case he does sit. As of now, it appears that Barkley will be playing. We saw against Washington that when he’s in, he’s receiving the bulk of the touches. If he goes, you can keep him in your lineup. It’s possible to cut up the Bucs through the ground, but Barkley will have his work cut out for him. Devontae Booker is a desperation flex play if he becomes the starter.

Saquon Barkley Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Giants Pass-Catchers

Kenny Golladay looks to rebound from a poor return against Las Vegas, where he saw only three targets. With Sterling Shepard out, he’s set up for much more. He draws a favorable matchup against PlayerProfiler’s No. 31-ranked CB Jamel Dean. Trust the combination of talent and situation to produce an acceptable amount of fantasy points.

Since Kadarius Toney‘s 189 total yard eruption, he’s averaged 2.67 Receptions and 5.22 Fantasy Points per Game. The good news is that he faces No. 73-ranked CB Dee Delaney in a spot where the Giants are going to have to throw the ball. This is a rebound game for Toney.

Kadarius Toney Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

 

Could Evan Engram be back? Don’t look now, but he’s scored one touchdown and finished as a top 10 TE in two straight weeks. He’s earning respectable opportunity shares, with a 15.1-percent (No. 15) Target Share, and a 77.4-percent (No. 8) Route Participation. With Shepard out, Engram is a medium-upside streamer.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady still keeps getting better. He’s producing 24.7 (No. 2) Fantasy Points per Game. He’s also been highly efficient, with a 112.1 (No. 2) True Passer Rating. The Buccaneers are on a two game losing streak, but not because of a lack of offensive production. Against a middling Giants defense, expect the GOAT to continue his dominance.

Take your L’s Ronald Jones stans, because it is and has been Leonard Fournette season. Uncle Lenny is dominating backfield opportunity, with 142.6 (No. 8) Weighted Opportunities and a 12.8-percent (No. 11) Target Share. He’s a bell-cow back who’s scored at least 15 fantasy points in five of the last six games and should be started everywhere.

Mike Evans is inconsistent, but never fails to compile his way into the top 12 WR’s in Fantasy Points per Game. He’s the team’s deep threat and a red zone threat, posting 951 (No. 11) Air Yards and 12 (No. 9) Red Zone Targets. Despite a matchup against No. 5-ranked CB James Bradberry, Evans is a locked-in starter with week-saving upside.

Mike Evans Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

 

Following Antonio Brown‘s injury, Chris Godwin has been on fire. He received 8 targets and produced over 100 total yards in two of the last three games. The slot receiver checks in with an impressive 78 (No. 14) targets396 (No. 3) Yards After Catch, and 17.9 (No. 9) Fantasy Points per Game. You’re starting Godwin, especially with Brown out.

While it’s unclear if Rob Gronkowski will be making his return to the lineup. If he does, he’s a surefire start. He produced 29 and 19.9 fantasy points in his two full games prior to injury, respectively. He see’s a high volume of the team’s targets and is in your lineup when active.

fantasy-football-dynasty-league-rankings

Cliff Notes

Conclusion

The Buccaneers are desperate for a rebound game, and the Giants are the perfect candidates for that to happen. While the Giants are capable of slowing good offenses down, the Bucs will be playing with extra tenacity tonight. The spread is set at a whopping 11 points in favor of Tampa Bay. Normally I’d say that’s too much, especially with how close the Giants typically play teams. However, I expect Tampa to steamroll New York. I’ll be taking Tampa -11.

The point total is currently at 49.5 points. Tampa plays at a very fast pace, while the Giants run at a more average tempo. Tampa is going to put up a slew of points, and thus will force the Giants to have to try and do the same. Considering how many points I expect Tampa to put up, I think the total sneaks past the over.

Prediction: Buccaneers 33-17