Free Agency Watch: Mike Evans | Landing Spots and Free Agency Outlook

by Matt Babich · Contracts & Free Agency
Mike Evans Contract

Welcome to PlayerProfiler’s 2024 Free Agency Preview! This year, we’ll be providing you with player-by-player insights as we approach the Free Agency period opening March 13th. In the last edition, we broke down the free agency outlook for Saquon Barkley. With Mike Evans’ contract entering its void years, we examine potential landing spots and free agency outlook for the veteran wide receiver.

2023 Review

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Mike Evans clearing 1,000 receiving yards. The future hall-of-famer reached that mark for the 10th consecutive season in 2023, just as he has in every other year of his career. Adding 13 touchdowns, this was also the 7th year he’s finished in the top-15 receivers in fantasy points per game. The prototypical X-receiver is also the definition of a generational talent.

Evans took this contract year seriously. He proved, at his advanced age, that he’s still a premiere deep threat and elite route runner, drawing 36 (No. 1) Deep Targets on a 50.4-percent (No. 10 among WRs with at least 500 routes run) Route Win Rate. Commanding a 38.7-percent (No. 5) Dominator Rating while producing an efficient 2.38 (No. 13) Yards Per Route Run at this age is nearly unheard of. There is still plenty of tread on the tires heading into next season.

Most Likely Landing Spots

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers surprised everyone with their performance this year. In the face of uncertainty at the quarterback position and an aging roster, they won the NFC South and knocked off the incumbent NFC Champions in the playoffs. Despite losing star offensive coordinator Dave Canales, there are reasons for the front office to continue to buy in on the Buccaneers championship window. That starts with keeping Evans rostered. With $48 Million in cap space, there’s plenty of room to make that happen.

Houston Texans

Should Evans hit the open market, a surprising leader in the clubhouse is the Houston Texans. Evans grew up in Galveston, Texas, one hour south of Houston. He also went to college at Texas A&M. Texas is running through his veins. C.J. Stroud got the best out of Nico Collins and Tank Dell last season, but that’s no reason to deny a generational talent to join the ranks.

Given Evans’ roots and the youthful roster in Houston, the Texans will surely attempt to court the future hall-of-famer should he hit the open market. They have nearly $66 million in cap space, and can easily acquire Evans and continue to build a championship roster around Stroud.

Las Vegas Raiders

There’s a real chance Davante Adams is not a Raider to start the 2024 season. We know Adams came to play with Carr, who is no longer in Vegas. We also know Garrett Wilson (teammate of former Packer Aaron Rodgers) will be changing his number to leave Adams’ favorite No. 17 open for the taking. Finally, reports regarding Rodgers’ influence on the roster construction are flooding in. This heavily implies the Jets will go after Adams in trade talks.

That being said, Vegas can’t part with Adams without a replacement Alpha locked in and ready to go. With $43 Million in cap space, why not get capital for Adams and replace him with Evans?

Detroit Lions

It’s clear that, after the Lions’ NFC Championship game loss, they need more firepower in the passing game. Relying on Josh Reynolds to make plays is simply not going to cut it. While the most efficient way to close the gap is in the Draft, the Lions may have enough extra cash to throw at a guy like Evans.

With $61 Million in cap space and Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson returning for one last ride, it is now or never for Detroit. Going all in on this offense is possible without completely sacrificing needs at other positions. In the current state of the NFC, Evans could be exactly what the Lions need to bring a Lombardi Trophy to the Motor City.

Predicted Landing Spot

My expectation is that the Bucs place the franchise tag on Evans to secure rights to him no matter what. That being said, a short-term extension is going to follow. This team has an identity, and Evans is a staple. As long as Tampa Bay is on the right side of competitive, they will have Mike Evans under contract.