Week 13 TNF Showdown: Bills at Patriots

by Matt Babich · Betting & Props

The Week 13 TNF Showdown features the Bills at the Patriots. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. Without further ado, let’s see what these two divisional rivals have in store for us in what should be an electric start to Week 13.

Advanced stats and analytics will be utilized to identify favorable matchups and players to avoid. The purpose of this article is to paint a picture of how the teams play and match up with one another in less than 1,500 words.

As the season continues, less emphasis will be put on last season and early season’s stats. Vegas trends will also be implemented to help predict the game flow. I’ll conclude the article with a Cliff Notes section and give the readers my prediction for the game.

Vegas Trends

  • Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Buffalo is 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games against New England.
    • Of their three home games vs New England, Buffalo is 2-0-1 ATS.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Buffalo’s last nine divisional matchups.
  • New England is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of New England’s last six games against Buffalo.
  • New England is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.

Notable Injuries


  • Dion Dawkins (Ankle, OUT)
  • Von Miller (Knee, OUT)


  • Damien Harris (Thigh, OUT)
  • Isaiah Wynn (Foot, Doubtful)

The Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen managers can rest easy knowing his UCL injury isn’t the detriment to his fantasy production that many feared it would be. Producing 21.2 fantasy points per game with two games of 40+ pass attempts since the scare, he’s confidently the rest-of-season QB1. He’s still not afraid to run. He carried the rock 10 times for 78 yards and a score in Week 12. Against a Patriots defense that has allowed solid fantasy performances to talented quarterbacks, Allen is a top-10 option.

Mr. Insde-the-Tackles, Devin Singletary, has always been a touchdown-dependent fantasy producer. He averages 19.2 fantasy points per game when he finds the endzone and 8.9 points per game when he does not. His target share, which was holding his perceived value afloat, now belongs to James Cook. Cook has been more efficient than his counterpart but has yet to eclipse a 30-percent Snap Share this season. Singletary, with his red zone usage and touchdown upside, is a deep flex play. Cook, on the other hand, does not see enough touches to be trusted in virtually every league. Be sure to stash Cook, though, who is more talented and could break out at any moment.

Even amidst a 15 target and 22 fantasy point performance, Stefon Diggs looked out of sync with his quarterback. 12 of his points came on his last two receptions encapsulating the rock-solid floor Diggs possesses. He’ll always find a way to produce, scoring 20+ fantasy points in seven of 11 contests while never falling below 10. Justin Jefferson may have the spotlight after his heroics versus Buffalo and New England, but Diggs is currently the WR1 in Fantasy Points Per Game. Jonathan Jones gave up a WR1 performance on Thursday, and he’s going to give up another tonight.

TNF Prop No. 1: James Cook OVER 15.5 Rushing Yards

I have gone on the record claiming that Gabriel Davis is a fraud with no bag, which I wholeheartedly stand by. He’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling with a little more skill. In a classic “Tall guy run fast” scenario, his value is propped up by the fact that he’s in the league’s most pass-heavy offense with a QB who can throw the ball a ball further than Uncle Rico. Historically, being a league leader in Average Depth of Target and Yards per Reception means you’re a boom/bust deep threat. Despite only catching five (No. 14) touchdowns, he’s still out-producing his 10.3 (No. 46) Expected Fantasy Points per Game by 2.5 points per game. If your team can withstand a 5-point dud, then Davis is a fine flex play against a defense that’s struggled to stop high-powered offenses.

Gabriel Davis Week 5 Route Tree (Courtesy of NFL’s Next Gen Stats)

I had to eat crow on Thursday’s recommendation to sit Isaiah Mckenzie, but I’m willing to double down on that decision this week. While his infamous 11 reception and 30 fantasy points performance lives in the masses’ heads, Myles Bryant locked him down in the playoffs. Bill Belichick doesn’t get caught off guard twice. He’s not going to get beat by gimmicks. The Patriots’ defense has held steady against slot receivers and should hold McKenzie within 10 points.

Special TNF Guest Prop: “Josh Allen OVER 7.5 rush attempts” – Aaron “Salary Cap-tain” Stewart

At this point, it’s tough to play Dawson Knox. He’s drawn five or more targets in just four of his 10 games and has found the endzone only twice. However, he draws the second-worst defense against the tight end and has earned at least two red zone targets in four of his six career contests versus the Patriots. Against a linebacker core that cannot defend the pass, I’m rolling out Knox in DFS Showdown lineups with the potential of a touchdown or even two. I’d still recommend sitting in fantasy as there are streamers with higher upsides and safer floors.

The New England Patriots

Mac Jones is good at football. Plain and simple. His situational completion percentages and accuracy ratings tell the story. In what seemed like the first game this season where he wasn’t running for his life, Jones threw for a career-high 382 passing yards and scored 23 fantasy points. While the Bills’ defense has been leaky lately, they’ve only allowed a 20 fantasy point performance to two quarterbacks all season. The Patriots still play at a near league-slowest Pace of Play and will want to dictate the pace of the game to keep Josh Allen off the field. Because of this, I’m slotting Jones in as a high-end QB2.

The leading contender for the steal of 2022 fantasy drafts is Rhamondre Stevenson. StevenSZN is off to an incredible start. Not only is he averaging 16.7 (No. 8) fantasy points per game, but he’s doing so by being one of the best tackle-shedders in the league. Additionally, he’s proving to be an elite pass-catching back, earning an 18.8-percent (No. 4) Target Share and producing 1.82 (No. 9) Yards per Route Run. The Bills have been giving up big games to opposing running backs and will be missing Von Miller. Slot the Patriots’ safety-valve to be a top-12 option this week.

It’s tough to gauge the health of Jakobi Meyers. He was held out of Thursday’s contest for quite some time with a shoulder injury, aggravating it in his post-halftime return and laboring through the rest of the game. He’s quoted saying that he’ll be active, but there’s a decent chance his snaps are limited. He’s earning a respectable 22.8-percent (No. 25) Target Share and churning out 2.52 (No. 14) Yards per Route run. An elite route winner, he’s a high-end WR3 with top-10 upside when healthy. I expect Meyers to be healthy enough to get a full workload tonight.

TNF Prop No. 2: Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 4.5 receptions

DaVante Parker and Nelson Agholor showed up for the first time in weeks. Agholor, finding the endzone, scored 18.5 fantasy points on eight targets. Parker, made a couple of highlight snags to gather 80 yards on four receptions. Neither of these players has much value when Meyers is healthy, which is why you aren’t starting either of them in fantasy. With Meyers’s shoulder, I will be slotting Agholor into some DFS Showdown lineups as he’s scored two long touchdowns this season and will likely see a few more snaps than normal.

Nelson Agholor Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Hunter Henry came back to life on Thanksgiving finding the endzone and scoring 15 fantasy points for the second time this season. Henry has been an afterthought to fantasy gamers all season, drawing only three targets per game. In a tight matchup where the offense was without their number one target, Henry still participated in less than 60-percent of the team’s routes. Yes, he has the potential for a boom week. However, against a Bills defense yet to give up a touchdown to the tight end, I’m not considering streaming him.

Cliff Notes

  • Devin Singletary is a desperation flex play.
  • Gabriel Davis is not that guy, pal.
  • Don’t expect a repeat from Isaiah McKenzie.
  • Mac Jones is a mid-level QB2.
  • Every week is Rhamondre Stevenson week.
  • Roll out Jakobi Meyers and trust the opportunity in a must-win matchup.


The Bills travel to Foxborough as 4-point favorites against their divisional opponents. The Bills have been struggling to close teams out and have only covered this number in two of their last six matchups. The Patriots have covered a +4 point spread four times in the same stretch. The Bills have the better all-around roster but have shown to be beatable. The Patriots’ defense is good enough to hold the Bills to a score attainable for their offense, and I expect Belichick to have his team well-prepared in this must-win divisional matchup. I’m taking the Patriots to cover the spread as home dogs.

The 43.5 point total is most definitely a trap. Vegas made the total just low enough for the public to swarm to put their money on the over. The Patriots lead the league in sacks and are No. 2 in QB pressure rate (ProFootballReference). The Bills have been less successful at getting to the quarterback but have been equally as elite at generating takeaways. I’m not a fan of this sharp line, but my lean will be on the total sneaking over as the Patriots play from behind in a close Game Script.

2022 record:

  • Spread: 7-7
  • Total: 9-5
  • Props: 14-9

Prediction: Bills 24-21