Underworld Rookie Mock Draft Recap #3

by Taylor Williams · Draft Strategy

For the next few months, the RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts. The first set of mocks began on February 22nd and will run bi-weekly through the summer. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community and our friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

Rookie Mock Draft Recap #3 – SuperFlex/TE Premium

The RotoUnderworld team is back with another SuperFlex/TE Premium rookie mock draft. With a few weeks in between the first draft and this one, our drafters had a bit more data on eligible players through Pro Days starting to happen at universities across the country. The drafters have added their own notes to each pick, and I’ll add overall thoughts on each round.

fantasy-football-dynasty-league-rankings

1.01 – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Analyst: Michael Schmidt (@iknowguacesxtra)
Rationale: Don’t overthink it, Lawrence has been the 1.01 for years. The draft really starts at 1.02.

1.02 – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Analyst: Ray Ray Marz (@RayRayMarz)
Rationale: Harris vs. Fields will be an important decision point in SuperFlex/TE Premium rookie drafts. Despite the potential Konami Code value presented by Fields, which is a cheat code in this fantasy format, it doesn’t compare to the ceiling provided by the tank that is Najee Harris.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fHIcKWylP4&ab_channel=ThePodfatherandRotoUnderworldRadio

1.03 – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio St

Analyst: Taylor Williams (@tjwillz31)
Rationale: I’m happy to take whoever falls between Najee and Fields. Fields is getting knocked by draftniks but his resume is too impressive to not be QB2.

1.04 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: Last time we saw Ja’Marr Chase, he led the nation with 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns while sharing the field with Justin Jefferson. Can’t pass on the best WR prospect in the 2021 class here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M–GLQut3Eg&ab_channel=ThePodfatherandRotoUnderworldRadio

1.05 – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: The No. 1-ranked rookie running back in the Breakout Finder with Aaron Jones-level upside.

1.06 – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota St

Analyst: Daniel Miner (@dminer1983)
Rationale: Getting my third-ranked QB at No. 6 feels like a steal. Lance oozes with upside.

https://twitter.com/DavisMattek/status/1362804836429934606?s=20

1.07 – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Analyst: Marc Mathyk (@MasterJune70)
Rationale: Going as QB2 and second overall pick in most NFL mocks, Wilson possesses significant upside falling to QB4 in this rookie mock.

1.08 – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: Getting my No. 2 QB with the eighth pick. Doesn’t get much better than that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZBnZPUrRAM&ab_channel=ThePodfatherandRotoUnderworldRadio

1.09 – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)
Rationale: Easy choice here, Pitts may be the best overall receiver in this draft.

1.10 – Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

Analyst: Josh Frazin (@Frazzassin)
Rationale: It was between Williams and Bateman here, but I could not pass on a potential workhorse RB late in the first.

1.11 – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

Analyst: Jared Johnson
Rationale: Ran a 4.39 hand-timed 40-yard Dash and logged a 4.44 laser time at 6-2, 210-pounds during his pro day. Bateman is an elite athletic prospect with the early breakout and college production to match; this is outstanding value and feels wrong at 1.11.

1.12 – Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon St

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: 1,400 rushing yards and 25 receptions as a true freshman, combined with solid size, warrants bellcow potential. Coming out early is huge as well.

Round 1 Takeaways

The same 12 players go in the first round that did in our previous SF/TE Premium mock, albeit in a different order. The QBs fall a few picks this time around, with Ja’Marr Chase and Travis Etienne hopping the Trey Lance/Zach Wilson/Mac Jones tier. At this point, the top eight are all nearly locks for the first round. The bottom four will depend mostly on the NFL Draft, with several WRs all grouped together that will likely go ahead of RBs like Javonte Williams and Jermar Jefferson.

Another interesting note on that second QB tier was each analyst mentioning they got their favorite QB of that bunch. A lack of consensus in that area provides fantasy drafters opportunity to trade down and take whoever falls.

Through one round, we’ve seen five QBs, four RBs, two WRs, and one TE come off the board. Unsurprisingly, the first is dominated by the top QBs and RBs, with their depth lacking relative to the WR group.

2.01 – Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

Analyst: Michael Schmidt (@iknowguacesxtra)
Rationale: A couple injuries may scare people off, but I can’t ignore 1,258 receiving yards as a true freshman and one of the best athletic profiles in the entire class.

2.02 – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Analyst: Ray Ray Marz (@RayRayMarz)
Rationale: My run on Alabama players continues. Smith ranks highly in all of the Breakout Finder metrics, the highest Teammate Score in the BOF database being the highlight, and he protects to be a top-10 NFL Draft pick. A Heisman-winning WR is the kind of player that deserves to be a first round rookie pick in any format.

2.03 – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Analyst: Taylor Williams (@tjwillz31)
Rationale: It was Waddle or Terrace Marshall for me here. Waddle got the nod due to the projected draft capital gap, special teams production, and per-catch efficiency.

2.04 – Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: With Jefferson and Chase out of the picture in 2020, Marshall averaged over 100 receiving yards per game. Excellent size, speed and versatility, do I need to say more?

2.05 – Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma St

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: The Year 1 upside is undeniable for the last of the RBs with the opportunity to control a backfield.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fh_KXCSEqWA&ab_channel=ThePodfatherandRotoUnderworldRadio

2.06 – Kenny Gainwell, RB, Memphis

Analyst: Daniel Miner (@dminer1983)
Rationale: I love the value here. Kenny G has the chance to be a special player, even in a timeshare.

2.07 – Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma St

Analyst: Marc Mathyk (@MasterJune70)
Rationale: Wallace is another example of the JuJu Smith-Schuster corollary where underwhelming upperclassmen seasons posted after a massive sophomore year breakout pushes an exciting WR prospect lower than he should go.

2.08 – Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida St

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: THE Height-Weight-Speed player in the draft and top WR in the class in my opinion.

2.09 – Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)
Rationale: Carter has great instincts and footwork. No wasted movement and very patient. If he lands in the right place, he could be a fantasy factor as soon as this season.

2.10 – Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn St

Analyst: Josh Frazin (@Frazzassin)
Rationale: He has the size, excellent hands, football instincts and early career breakout. If Kyle Pitts wasn’t in this class, Freiermuth would be drawing a lot more attention.

2.11 – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

Analyst: Jared Johnson
Rationale: It was between Toney and Brevin Jordan. Toney is a quarterback’s dream; YAC master status and a threat to break off big plays after the catch at all times. He will most likely be an actual NFL first rounder, and is a slightly older prospect at age 23, but could make the most immediate impact if he lands with the Bears, Lions, or even Miami.

2.12 – Elijah Mitchell, RB, Louisiana

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: Elijah Mitchell over Elijah Moore? Mitchell has bellcow size, a 20-reception season, and stole the starting job over three other NFL-caliber players. Give me bellcow receiver over a WR all day.

Round 2 Takeaways

As The Podfather says, the second round is when we can pivot to spending picks chasing upside. That is fully apparent in this mock. Rondale Moore, Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Terrace Marshall each have significant risk in their profiles, whether that be injury history, size, or lack of production. Their ceilings, however, are undeniable.

In the next few picks, we see RBs get pushed up who couldn’t hold onto bellcow roles in college, yet have hope to do so in the league. In a shallow RB class, you take what you can get.

I like that Pat Freiermuth pick a lot. In TE Premium formats, getting a strong, yet overshadowed TE2 in the late second is excellent value.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C3G84KJWrw&ab_channel=ThePodfatherandRotoUnderworldRadio

In the second round, there were no QBs, four RBs, seven WRs, and one TE picked, which brings the totals to five QBs, eight RBs, nine WRs, and two TEs. As was the case last year, the second round features a bevy of WRs flying off the board.

3.01 – Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

Analyst: Michael Schmidt (@iknowguacesxtra)
Rationale: Brown posted back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons on over 20 yards per reception, solidifying himself as one of the premier downfield threats in the class.

3.02 – Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss

Analyst: Ray Ray Marz (@RayRayMarz)
Rationale: The embedded tweet is all I need to say about a player who could be the next Terry McLaurin.

3.03 – Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi St

Analyst: Taylor Williams (@tjwillz31)
Rationale: Hill broke out as a sophomore in the SEC and is coming off three straight seasons with 20-plus targets. He’s one of the few remaining RBs with workhorse upside.

3.04 – Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: A solid blocker with high-end receiving skills that rolls up yards after the catch, Jordan is projected to go in the top 100 of the NFL Draft. I’ll happily scoop up a top-3 prospect in a loaded TE class here in the third.

3.05 – Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio St

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: The last of the every-down-sized backs. If Sermon can show out at the Ohio State Pro Day, we could be looking at a Day 2 draft pick.

3.06 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC

Analyst: Daniel Miner (@dminer1983)
Rationale: I’m a big fan of Amon-Ra’s game. He may not be the biggest guy, but plays with a ton of toughness and tenacity.

3.07 – Kyle Trask, QB, Florida

Analyst: Marc Mathyk (@MasterJune70)
Rationale: Less than a few months, ago Kyle Trask was mentioned in the same breath as Mac Jones, so landing him at the 3.07 in SuperFlex is well worth the gamble.

3.08 – Javian Hawkins, RB, Louisville

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: Undersized player with big-play ability who’s shown he can handle 15-plus touches a game.

3.09 – Jaret Patterson, RB, Buffalo

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)
Rationale: 1,072 rushing yards in six games is impressive no matter how you slice it.

3.10 – Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson

Analyst: Josh Frazin (@Frazzassin)
Rationale: Built like a RB, he could land somewhere between Jarvis Landry and Ty Montgomery in the NFL. He showed well in the Senior Bowl.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0AJ4an3igE&ab_channel=ThePodfatherandRotoUnderworldRadio

3.11 – Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma

Analyst: Jared Johnson
Rationale: A powerful runner that could end up being a 2021 A.J. Dillon-type riser (editors note: pre-Aaron Jones trade, at least).

3.12 – Marlon Williams, WR, UCF

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: Excellent size. Logged 71 receptions and 10 TDs in only eight games this season, and the lack of early career production can be attributed to sharing a field with Gabriel Davis.

Round 3 Takeaways

Despite five more RBs being taken in the third, the choices feel more risky than the WRs available in this range. Dyami Brown, Elijah Moore, and Amon-Ra St. Brown all have exciting profiles that are being pushed down more due to the overall strength of the WR class than any issues inherent to the players themselves. Kylin Hill and Trey Sermon have average production and should be decent athletes but they don’t pop, while Javian Hawkins and Jaret Patterson have major size concerns. This year really exemplifies the rookie draft strategy of going early RB and loading up on WR late.

This round featured one QB, five RBs, five WRs, and one TE, adding up to six QBs, 13 RBs, 14 WRs, and three TEs.

4.01 – Seth Williams, WR, Auburn

Analyst: Michael Schmidt (@iknowguacesxtra)
Rationale: Alpha size? Check. Early breakout? Check. Early declare? Check. Victim of Bo Nix? CHECK.

4.02 – D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan

Analyst: Ray Ray Marz (@RayRayMarz)
Rationale: This pick would have been Anthony Schwartz had I realized he was still on the board (editors note: well, I feel sheepish). Still, I like getting the player who led the nation in all-purpose yards per game in this spot, and I don’t like the remaining QBs enough to reach for one here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQstrH42fCY&ab_channel=ThePodfatherandRotoUnderworldRadio

4.03 – Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn

Analyst: Taylor Williams (@tjwillz31)
Rationale: Very comfortable shooting for upside with the fastest WR in the draft here in the fourth round.

4.04 – Demetric Felton, RB, UCLA

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: A versatile RB/WR, Felton recorded 218 carries for 999 yards and 77 catches for 753 yards in 18 games over the past two seasons. Recently met virtually with the Packers and Patriots. Slot receiver or backfield weapon?

4.05 – Jaelon Darden, WR, North Texas

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: By May, Darden will be the most valuable fourth-rounder in rookie drafts. In home leagues, he will likely be a fifth-rounder.

4.06 – Hunter Long, TE, Boston College

Analyst: Daniel Miner (@dminer1983)
Rationale: This is a guy that has a ton of potential if he lands in the right offense. This is as good a spot as any to get a potential top 10 TE.

4.07 – Nico Collins, WR, Michigan

Analyst: Marc Mathyk (@MasterJune70)
Rationale: Great size and expected athleticism. Another underrated wide receiver who unfortunately played with Shea Patterson and Joe Milton at Michigan.

4.08 – Larry Rountree, RB, Missouri

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: Good sized back with good athleticism and solid hands.

4.09 – Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)
Rationale: Inconsistent against SEC tier talent. However, I could easily see Mond landing on a team where he can compete and possibly see the field if an injury befalls a starter.

4.10 – Jamie Newman, QB, Georgia

Analyst: Josh Frazin (@Frazzassin)
Rationale: He opted out of the 2020 season and decided to play (poorly) in the Senior Bowl, but he was on his way up in 2019. I’ll take a chance this late in the draft.

4.11 – Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville

Analyst: Jared Johnson
Rationale: He is a straight dog as a receiver with an 18.9 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age and 35.1-percent (96th-percentile) College Target Share to pair with elite speed and athleticism. He is undersized at 5-9 and 165-pounds, but translates into a dangerous slot weapon in the NFL.

4.12 – Marquez Stevenson, WR, Houston

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: Has a 75-reception season on his resume, an 88th-percnetile College Target Share, an 85th-percentile College Dominator Rating and is projected to run in the 4.3’s, which isn’t bad at 5-10 and 182-pounds.

Round 4 Takeaways

We’re in dart-throw mode at this point. With no NFL Draft or Combine to go on, there will be less consensus than ever on sleepers, so go grab your guy. In this round, we saw some small school mega-producers at WR, some QBs whose value could spike if an injury were to happen ahead of them and a few RBs who, though lacking bellcow potential, could still provide fantasy value within a limited role on an NFL team.

The risers is this round include Jamie Newman, Nico Collins, and Larry Rountree, who were all fifth round picks previously. D’Wayne Eskridge and Anthony Schwartz fell nearly a whole round in this one.

Round 4 included two QBs, two RBs, seven WRs, and one TE. The running total is eight QBs, 15 RBs, 21 WRs, and four TEs.

5.01 – Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina

Analyst: Michael Schmidt (@iknowguacesxtra)
Rationale: A Senior Bowl favorite who posted a 92nd-percentile College Dominator Rating on an anemic South Carolina passing attack.

5.02 – Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

Analyst: Ray Ray Marz (@RayRayMarz)
Rationale: Yes he has a suboptimal college production profile (despite his 90th-percentile College Dominator Rating), has a questionable athletic profile, opted out of 2020 and didn’t separate himself at the Senior Bowl. But he does have alpha size at 6-3 and 215-pounds, broke out in his first college season, has a tiny bit of punt returning experience and easily has the highest Breakout Rating among the remaining receivers. That rating will surely rise if he sneaks into the back end of Day 2 of the NFL Draft.

5.03 – Chris Evans, RB, Michigan

Analyst: Taylor Williams (@tjwillz31)
Rationale: A bit of a homer pick, but this is a player with demonstrated pass-catching ability and elusiveness; one who could carve out a role as a satellite back in the league.

5.04 – Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: Herbert projects to be a Day 3 pick, but I’ll take a shot on a player that averaged 7.6 (96th-percentile) College YPC and posted 1,791 all-purpose Yards last season, the No. 3 mark in the country.

5.05 – Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: Yeboah shined at the Senior Bowl and has climbed his way into TE4 conversation with Hunter Long and Tre McKitty.

5.06 – Dazz Newsome, WR, North Carolina

Analyst: Daniel Miner (@dminer1983)
Rationale: At this point in the draft, I’m looking for a player that will offer me a semblance of upside. Newsome has shown flashes of that upside during his time at UNC. He could end up being a bargain in drafts if he lands in a good spot.

5.07 – Warren Jackson, WR, Colorado St

Analyst: Marc Mathyk (@MasterJune70)
Rationale: Jackson is 6-6 and 226-pounds. He sat out 2020 but is coming off a 2019 with the second-best per-game WR production per game behind Ja’Marr Chase. Getting him here is criminal.

5.08 – T.J. Vasher, WR, Texas Tech

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: Very athletic, big-bodied receiver with great body control and had D1 offers to play basketball.

5.09 – Peyton Ramsey, QB, Northwestern

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)
Rationale: Has the leadership, intelligence and intangibles to compete for a backup job and could easily have more value after the draft.

5.10 – Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR, Iowa

Analyst: Josh Frazin (@Frazzassin)
Rationale: ISM scored a rushing, receiving and kickoff return TD in one quarter vs USC in the 2019 Holiday Bowl. Locked in as my late-round pick.

5.11 – De’Montre Tuggle, RB, Ohio

Analyst: Jared Johnson
Rationale: He has a nose for the end zone and is an efficient runner that is also an excellent return specialist. Tuttle possesses impeccable ball carrier vision and above-average contact balance, but is undersized for a three-down role.

5.12 – Kawaan Baker, WR, South Alabama

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: The next potential Jaylen Samuels who nobody has heard of. Stands 6-1, 215-pounds, boasted a 75th-percentile College Dominator Rating sharing a field with Jalen Tolbert. Logged 59 rushes as a sophomore,  and his receiving production got better every season.

Round 5 Takeaways

Several newcomers make their first appearance on a RotoUnderworld rookie mock draft, including Peyton Ramsey, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, De’Montre Tuggle, and Kawaan Baker. I’m quite intrigued by Baker as a former Jaylen Samuels enthusiast. Swiss army knife players make great late round picks, with their versatile skillsets tending to help them stick on NFL gameday active rosters. Smith-Marsette also demonstrated special dynamism during his time at Iowa.

Shi Smith and Sage Surratt fell over a round from the third/fourth of the previous mock to the fifth in this one, providing nice value for their drafters. A few others slipped in from the late fourth as well. Those falling out of this mock from last include Trey Ragas, Pooka Williams, Frank Darby, Trevon Grimes, Stevie Scott, and Mike Strachan.

The final round brought one QB, three RBs, seven WRs, and one TE. For the entire draft, we saw nine QBs, 18 RBs, 28 WRs, and five TEs selected.

Conclusion

That’ll do it for our second RotoUnderworld SuperFlex/TE Premium rookie draft, and third rookie mock recap in general. These are still the early days of draft season, and there are many more mocks to come. The top of the first round is solidifying, but there will be plenty of movement over the next few months. Stay tuned here at PlayerProfiler for future mock draft recaps as consensus will surely begin to build. As is always the case though, when you’re actually on the clock, only you have to live with your selection, so find your guys and don’t be afraid to reach when necessary. This is an interesting class with a few true studs at the top but plenty of relatively even depth behind it.