Underworld Rookie Mock Draft Recap #7

by Steve Smith · Draft Strategy

The RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts, running through the spring and summer. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community, and our good friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the events and adding their own unique perspectives.

Rookie Mock Draft Recap #7 – SuperFlex/TE Premium

The mock drafts keep coming at the Underworld. Once again we’ve assembled a solid crew of drafters to take us through the post-pro day SuperFlex/TE Premium rookie draft climate. This most recent Underworld and Friends rookie SF/TE mock kicked off on April 19th. A little over a week later and we’re ready to share the fruits of our labor. With pre-draft expectations high, and many prospects posting disappointing physical measurables and test results, the draft board is littered with notable risers and fallers. Let’s take a look at the results and gain insight into why the picks were made at each draft slot.

fantasy-football-dynasty-league-rankings

1.01 – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Analyst: Akash Bhatia (@FantasyKash)
Rationale: In TE premium, many will be tempted to go with Kyle Pitts, but given the SuperFlex format, I will take the highest floor asset available, and that’s Trevor Lawrence.

1.02 – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Analyst: Will Barrett (@Will_Barrett1)
Rationale: I love the thought of Fields going to the 49ers. He’s been impressive since high school, massive upside with him.

1.03 – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: Harris produced 2,690 rushing yards over the past two seasons and had a 13.4-percent (89th-percentile among qualified running backs) Target Share in 2020. While he only did drills at the Alabama Pro Day, he fits the profile of that bellcow we look for to anchor our dynasty teams.

1.04 – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

Analyst: Pedro Reyna (@petesake_)
Rationale: Who is not excited about this guy? Potential RB1 for just about any team he lands with.

1.05 – Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: Stability/safety is the key in round one. Willing to sacrifice a potential superstar QB in Lance (small sample size/poor competition) and WR in Chase for a future producer at fantasy’s most important position.

1.06 – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Analyst: Ray Marzarella (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: After the Elite 4 (Lawrence, Fields, Harris and Etienne) are off the board, I’m targeting the player with arguably the highest ceiling in this QB class, especially if he’s San Fran’s pick at No. 3. Konami Code QBs make for great floor plays in this format.

1.07 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

Analyst: Jaylen Glenn (@JayyyG_FF)
Rationale: Pretty much 50/50 between Chase and Pitts for me here, but I’ll choose the athletic freak at the position with much better hit rates.

1.08 – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Analyst: Taylor Williams (@tjwillz31)
Rationale: Debated between Wilson and Mac Jones. With Fields now the betting favorite to go third, I’ll lock in the top 2 draft capital from a potentially riskier prospect than the relatively unexciting Jones.

1.09 – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Analyst: Andrew Quinn (@AQuinnff)
Rationale: This is my first time drafting Pitts in a rookie mock, but he’s a good value at the 1.09 – especially in TE premium! All we need now is draft capital.

1.10 – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: Only two receivers will go over 1,000 receiving yards as rookies. Chase and Bateman have that upside, unlike any other in this class.

1.11 – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)
Rationale: Mac Jones will be a top 10 selection in the NFL Draft and should be in your SuperFlex/2QB leagues as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11S-BcmmllE

1.12 – Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: The most electrifying WR in the class at 1.12!?! Yes, please!

Round 1 Takeaways

Apart from a couple of receivers trading rounds (we’ll discuss that more in the Round 2 takeaways), the top 12 consists of the same usual suspects. Unsurprisingly, Trevor Lawrence remains locked and loaded as the SuperFlex top dog. Owners of the 1.01 should not get cute – autodraft him, or trade back and reap the profit. With four SF/TE mock drafts in the books, the top five in ADP has emerged as Lawrence, Justin Fields, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Trey Lance. It makes sense. Secure either the most highly regarded prospect in the class, an elite running back, or a mobile quarterback that oozes fantasy upside.

Despite weighing in at a lighter than expected 212-pounds and running a 4.62 (41st-percentile) 40-yard Dash, Javonte Williams continues to rise with each draft. Going off the board at 1.10 in our first two SF/TEP mocks, Williams’ peak selection at 1.05 signals a desire to secure a potential bellcow in an economy where many RBs have flamed out during the pro day process.

With a trio of QBs and RBs now off the board, the second half of Round 1 turns its focus to pass catchers in Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, Rashod Bateman and first round newcomer Rondale Moore. Displaying elite athleticism at his Purdue Pro Day allows many to look past Moore’s diminutive stature. Chase being available at the 1.07 should make everyone want to join a SuperFlex league today. He showed out at his pro day and is best comparable to Odell Beckham, Moving back to the QBs, Zach Wilson’s mock draft capital holds steady at 1.08, but Mac Jones continues to see his stock slide with each mock. However, that could revert quickly if he’s drafted by a certain Bay Area team on April 29th.

2.01 – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Analyst: Akash Bhatia (@FantasyKash)
Rationale: Likely the second or third receiver off the board, Waddle was matching Devonta Smith, his Heisman-winning teammate before his injury. Waddle also lacks those size concerns, and outproduced Smith, Ruggs, and Irv Smith when he was a freshman.

2.02 – Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

Analyst: Will Barrett (@Will_Barrett1)
Rationale: Excited to see Marshall at the 2.02. Although not the most productive receiver, he’s a good talent who played along side some really good receivers like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Kayshon Boutte.

2.03 – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: Devonta Smith dropped from 170 to 166-pounds and is now available at the 2.03. I’ll take the discount. Roll Tide.

2.04 – Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss

Analyst: Pedro Reyna (@petesake_)
Rationale: An early breakout, high-end production in 2020, 4.40 speed and 98th-percentile burst. Moore is moving up mock draft boards.

2.05 – Kenny Gainwell, RB, Memphis

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: I’ll happily sit and collect two running backs in the top 5 RotoUnderworld RB rookie rankings before the huge cliff coming for the position. The receiving work gives him a safe floor, but his ability as a dual-threat player give him some interesting upside as well.

2.06 – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

Analyst: Ray Marzarella (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: Well the depth certainly evaporated pretty quickly now didn’t it? I haven’t yet picked Toney before Round 3 in any of these mocks, but he has the dynamism and projected draft capital to be worth the selection among the top 20 rookies.

2.07 – Seth Williams, WR, Auburn

Analyst: Jaylen Glenn (@JayyyG_FF)
Rationale: Alpha SEC WR with a good size/speed combo that will be one of my favorite second round targets if he gets day 2 draft capital.

2.08 – Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma

Analyst: Taylor Williams (@tjwillz31)
Rationale: Is Chuba the JuJu Smith-Schuster of RBs getting overly dragged down by a disappointing junior season after an explosive sophomore year that illuminated his real upside?

2.09 – Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State

Analyst: Andrew Quinn (@AQuinnff)
Rationale: Sermon has been slowly rising the past few weeks, and I’ll snatch him as the sixth RB off the board so far. Well worth the pick if he gets a good landing spot.

2.10 – Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: Welcome to DYAMI!! As you all know, I love this value for Dyami Brown, and will keep my flag planted through this process, even though big media would tell you he had a disappointing pro day.

2.11 – Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)
Rationale: Carter is the most overlooked back in this class. He boasts an 8.0 (97th-percentile) College YPC average, and more important, he recorded a 10.81 (98th-percentile) Agility Score, AKA The Secret Sauce!

2.12 – Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: Can’t ask for a better pick at 2.12. TE2 at the end of the second round shouldn’t be a question

Round 2 Takeaways

Round 2 starts to show the impact of the pro day circuit. Oregon State running back Jermar Jefferson is absent from the top 24 for the first time. Jefferson crashed and burned at his April Fool’s Day event, weighing much lighter than anticipated at 206-pounds and clocking a pedestrian 4.65 (32nd-percentile) 40-yard Dash. His profile now includes unimpressive 14th-perecntile Burst and Agility Scores. Ohio State running back Trey Sermon, who flashed at the right time last season and tested well given his size, has replaced him in this round and could challenge for the RB4 spot depending what happens during the NFL Draft.

Another notable faller is Devonta Smith, who chose to not test, measure, or step foot on a scale. The Heisman Trophy winner is standing on his resume, which includes 37 receiving touchdowns in his last 25 collegiate games. However, concerns regarding his unknown athletic profile and recently released 166-pound weight have dropped him to a low point of our SF/TE mock draft process: No. 15 overall (or 2.03).

Don’t panic, it’s not all doom and gloom. The strength of the class at the QB position is pushing plenty of upside into the second round of  SuperFlex rookie drafts. Exciting wide receiver prospects Jaylen Waddle, Terrace Marshall, and Elijah Moore can all be drafted with an early-to-mid second. Kenny Gainwell did gain well to the tune of 12-pounds and continues to creep up into the mid-second round. Pat Freiermuth (great value at No. 24 in TE premium), Dyami Brown, and Michael Carter continue to be fixtures in the Pick No. 20 to 24 range.

3.01 – Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville

Analyst: Akash Bhatia (@FantasyKash)
Rationale: While small, Atwell has strong age-adjusted production and is mocked fairly highly.

3.02 – Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn

Analyst: Will Barrett (@Will_Barrett1)
Rationale: Taking the world class sprinter with a 99th-percentile 40 time at the 3.02, great value.

3.03 – Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale:  This pick was between pro day riser Elijah Mitchell and the falling Jefferson, who has fallen 13 spots since our last SF/TEP mock draft. I’ll take the risk and the value with him falling that far.

3.04 – Elijah Mitchell, RB, Louisiana

Analyst: Pedro Reyna (@petesake_)
Rationale: While many RBs disappointed at their pro days, Mitchell did not. He is a big riser after flashing 4.40 speed, 88th-percentile burst and 79th-percentile agility.

3.05 – Nico Collins, WR, Michigan

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: One of the few players in this class who significantly improved their draft stock. His exceptional size and athleticism pairing are the quintessential combo that screams late round pick with massive upside.

3.06 – Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State

Analyst: Ray Marzarella (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: The Lynn Bowden comp for Amari Rodgers is appealing whether or not he ends up converting to RB. Though I also don’t hate Tylan Wallace‘s Mario Manningham comp and the Giants homer in me is telling me to make this pick.

3.07 – Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M

Analyst: Jaylen Glenn (@JayyyG_FF)
Rationale: I’ll take a shot on a Konami QB with a good chance of getting Day 2 draft capital.

3.08 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC

Analyst: Taylor Williams (@tjwillz31)
Rationale: With a freshman year 18.9 (92nd-percentile) Breakout Age, St. Brown has showed he can step in to a new situation and produce. I’ll always defer to production over athleticism for WRs with St. Brown falls following disappointing pro day workouts.

3.09 – Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida State

Analyst: Andrew Quinn (@AQuinnff)
Rationale: Terry is my favorite WR available here, and with the right landing spot, he could get a chance to see some action as a rookie.

3.10 – Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: Hill is the end of my Tier-4 at running back. Not overly excited. His mock draft stock has plummeted since December, but his talent hasn’t changed!

3.11 – Hunter Long, TE, Boston College

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)
Rationale: Hunter Long is 6-5 and 250-pounds with an 84-inch wingspan! He is natural pass catcher and does well as a blocker. Long can easily develop into a starting tight end.

3.12 – Mike Strachan, WR, Charleston

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: A big, tall receiver with good speed and massive upside.

Round 3 Takeaways

Heading into Round 3, our mock drafters are looking at selecting the QB6, RB8, WR11, or TE3. The high-end talent is evaporating quickly, but there are still many diamonds to unearth. Selections in this range will start to vary considerably between mocks as drafters choose prospects that they are high on. Saying that, there is still noteworthy movement to highlight. Former mid-second round picks Tylan Wallace and Tamorrion Terry continue to slide with each SF/TEP mock draft. Another notable omission from Round 3 is Florida QB Kyle Trask. Despite Trask’s projected Day 2 draft capital he falls to Round 5, which is likely due a lacks of athleticism (best comparable to a statue) that fantasy gamers covet in their QBs today.

On the flip side, Elijah Mitchell posted impressive numbers clocking a 4.40 (97th-percentile) 40-yard Dash at 201-pounds. A bit more svelte than expected, this still translates to a 107.3 (86th-percentile) Speed Score to go along with solid burst and agility. Mitchell is one of the bigger pro day RB risers at a time when many at the position have shown flaws.

At 6-5, 226-pounds, Mike Strachan is moving up NFL draft boards and in this mock. The strong small school producer closes out Round 3 after posting impressive metrics. Pro days have highlighted a lack of size at the WR position in this class and Mike has it. Strachan has been an afterthought to this point of our SF/TEP mocks going undrafted twice. Staying with the big bodied WR archetype, Michigan’s Nico Collins, a sought after 4-star recruit, also posted solid testing numbers. We’d be remiss to not mention that Hunter Long takes hold of the TE3 (No. 35 overall) spot. A Long supporter for months, this will surely put a smile on Cody Carpentier‘s face.

4.01 – Rhamondre Stevenson, RB,  Oklahoma

Analyst: Akash Bhatia (@FantasyKash)
Rationale: At this point in the draft, just chasing upside. Rhamondre has the build for a bell-cow role, and was talented enough that Trey Sermon transferred to Ohio State.

4.02 – Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson

Analyst: Will Barrett (@Will_Barrett1)
Rationale: Love taking the Senior Bowl standout here. Amari is built like a truck at 5-9, 212-pounds. Good upside pick here at the 4.02.

4.03 – Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: Jordan had an underwhelming pro day, which results in him sliding into the fourth round of this mock. He’s still projected to be drafted around pick No. 71 of the NFL Draft per our Big Board. Taking the value, it’s the theme of my mock draft this time around.

4.04 – Chris Evans, RB, Michigan

Analyst: Pedro Reyna (@petesake_)

4.05 – Deon Jackson, RB, Duke

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: 4.47 (87th-percentile) 40-yard Dash, 218-pounds, two 20-plus reception seasons, and… a career 4.0 (4th-percentile) College YPC average. That says he can’t avoid tackles, but a landing spot with a good offensive line can rectify this problem, making him interesting.

4.06 – D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan

Analyst: Ray Marzarella (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: 4.47 (87th-percentile) 40-yard Dash, 218-pounds, two 20-plus reception seasons, and… a career 4.0 (4th-percentile) College YPC average. That says he can’t avoid tackles, but a landing spot with a good offensive line can rectify this problem, making him interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJDm4zsDfCo

4.07 – Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina

Analyst: Jaylen Glenn (@JayyyG_FF)
Rationale: Slightly built WR with good athleticism and playmaking ability.

4.08 – Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech

Analyst: Taylor Williams (@tjwillz31)
Rationale: Herbert has feature back size and a history of efficient rushing. His last season saw a bump in Target Share that gives hope for bellcow potential at the next level.

4.09 – Jaret Patterson, RB, Buffalo

Analyst: Andrew Quinn (@AQuinnff)
Rationale: Shooting for upside in the fourth round, Patterson is an undersized back but has a great College YPC average and College Dominator Rating. Plus, I’m pretty sure he scored seven TDs in a game this past CFB season…only studs do that sh*t!!

4.10 – Simi Fehoko, WR, Stanford

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: He is climbing draft boards quickly. Best Comparable to Alshon Jeffery, Michael Pittman and Kenny Golladay. I love this value in Round 4.

4.11 – Javian Hawkins, RB, Louisville

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)
Rationale: Trying to catch lightning in a fourth-round pick-shaped bottle is tough, unless it’s Javian Hawkins. Logging 1,500-plus rushing yards in his breakout sophomore season has me intrigued.

4.12 – Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: Athletic TE with YAC ability.

Round 4 Takeaways

There are many ways to describe the picks made in Round 4. Dart throws and “get your guy” come to mind. In this case, several of our mock drafters have opted to take the late round drafting advice of The Podfather. Get yourself an athlete! With all but two sub-200-pound RBs falling off the draft board in this mock (Hawkins and Patterson), let me introduce you to some athletes.

Michigan rusher Chris Evans measured in at 5-11, 211-pounds, posting a 132.4 (94th-percentile) Burst Score and a 10.99 (92nd-percentile) Agility Score. He’s Best Comparable to Damien Harris. Duke RB Deon Jackson also posted some eye-popping numbers. At 5-11, 218-pounds, he ran a blistering 4.47 (87th-percentile) 40-yard Dash, which is good for a 90th-percentile Speed Score. He also has 71st-percentile burst. Moving over to wide receiver, Simi Fehoko measured in at 6-4, 222-pounds and ran a 4.49 (70th-percentile) 40-yard Dash. Stanford’s Fehoko has 72nd-percentile agility and a 76th-percentile Catch Radius. He’s best comparable to Alshon Jeffery.

The completely unbiased SF/TEP premium value pick of the round has to be Brevin Jordan at the 4.03. Solid drafting right there. The Miami product put up average numbers at his pro day that disappointed even himself. However, this prospect was in the TE2 conversation a month ago in what is regarded as a strong tight end class. Jordan broke out at age 18.1 (99th-percentile) and posted a 31.5-percent (90th-percentile) College Dominator Rating. This makes him a worthwhile investment in a position that is often a fantasy football wasteland.

5.01 – Trey Ragas, RB, Louisville

Analyst: Akash Bhatia (@FantasyKash)

5.02 – Cade Johnson, WR, South Dakota State

Analyst: Will Barrett (@Will_Barrett1)
Rationale: Johnson is a fun player with an 18.4 (88th-percentile) College YPR average, 44.7-percent (89th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, a Best Comparable Player  of Diontae Johnson, and two college seasons with more than 1,200 receiving yards.

5.03 – Kyle Trask, QB, Florida

Analyst: Steve Smith (@stevenr_smith)
Rationale: QBs hold value in SuperFlex leagues. Nabbing Trask, who could received second round draft capital in the fifth here, is a worthwhile investment.

5.04 – Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR, Iowa

Analyst: Pedro Reyna (@petesake_)

5.05 – Noah Gray, TE, Duke

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: Back to back Duke boys here. Gray is upper-percentile across the board for athleticism and has a 72-percentile Breakout Age, making him interesting here in a TE Premium format.

5.06 – Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

Analyst: Ray Marzarella (@rayraymarz)
Rationale :Yes he has a suboptimal college production profile (despite his 90th-percentile College Dominator Rating), has a questionable athletic profile, opted out of 2020 and didn’t separate himself at the Senior Bowl. But he does have alpha size at 6-3 and 215-pounds, broke out in his first college season, has a tiny bit of punt returning experience and a high Breakout Rating that will surely rise if he sneaks into the back end of Day 2 of the NFL Draft.

5.07 – Jaelon Darden, WR, North Texas

Analyst: Jaylen Glenn (@JayyyG_FF)
Rationale: Athletic slot WR who can contribute in the return game as well.

5.08 – Isaiah McKoy, WR, Kent State

Analyst: Taylor Williams (@tjwillz31)
Rationale: Deep into flier territory, I’m taking a stab at a guy that was massively productive (76th-percentile College Dominator) at a young age (96th-percentile Breakout Age) despite sub-par athleticism, evidence that he has a natural feel for the position

5.09 – Davis Mills, QB, Stanford

Analyst: Andrew Quinn (@AQuinnff)
Rationale: Another QB who should see Day 2 draft capital. Happy to end the SF/TE draft with a rookie QB.

5.10 – Jamie Newman, QB, Georgia

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: All the upside in the fifth round if he goes in the first two days of the NFL Draft. Newman would be in first round conversations if he didn’t opt out in 2020.

5.11 – Jalen Camp, WR, Georgia Tech

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@FantasyTopGun)
Rationale: At 6-2 and 226-pounds, Camp is an exciting dart throw! He has upper-percentile Burst with an upper-percentile Speed Score and Catch Radius. Give him a pass on the late Breakout Age since he was doomed playing in his college system.

5.12 – Sam Ehlinger, QB, Texas

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: Can’t finish the draft without taking a QB and Ehlinger was a stud in high school. Let’s hope he finds his place in the league.

Round 5 Takeaways

Round 5 is dominated by wide receiver picks but brings a late quarterback run. This brings the total to 10 QBs selected in this mock. In SuperFlex formats, quarterbacks are hot commodities, so adding a signal caller to the taxi squad late in the draft is never a bad idea. Should any of these QB prospects receive decent draft capital or land in the right situation, these late round picks will accrue value. This is also a position that retains value well in the SF/2QB format. A great example of this is Sam Darnold. To date, he has been a huge let down in actual and fantasy football. He is currently ranked at QB30 in PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings. In spite of this, he is still fetching second-round rookie pick value via trade.

Conclusion

This concludes our pre-NFL Draft SF/TE mock draft schedule. A special thanks to the members of the Underworld and Friends that participated in this one. Rest assured that we’ll get right back to mock drafting immediately following the NFL Draft weekend. Without a doubt, it will be interesting to see the impact that draft capital and landing spots have on rookie draft selection. Comparing the results of this mock and upcoming mocks will be a useful tool to gauge player movement and identify value. Stay tuned!