Happy July everyone. We are a little over two months away from the NFL kickoff. However, in the FFPC High Stakes streets of the FFPC, the action has already started. I have hit the pavement for several June drafts with (redacted for IRS purposes) already invested. Here are some takeaways that can help you get prepared for your drafts.
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Wide Receivers Dominate the First Two Rounds
Justin Jefferson is the unquestioned 1.01 in PPR, 1/2 point PPR, TE Premium. The format doesn’t matter. Mostly, drafters are being contrarian or unique with their builds when they decide to pivot off Jefferson. Ja’Marr Chase and elite veterans Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp follow him up. Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Amon Ra-St. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb are usually first-round selections as well. Eight of the first 12 picks are WRs in a usual $350 FFPC Player’s Championship draft.
Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, Davante Adams, and DeVonta Smith are all locks to be selected in the second round. This makes Round 2 another WR heavy round. Additionally, Chris Olave is a near-lock well on his way to rising even further this month. Tee Higgins is selected in the early third before a minor tier breakdown to DK Metcalf. 14 or 15 of the picks in the first two rounds will be WRs. If you want one of them, be prepared to use one of your first two picks.
Running Back: Christian McCaffrey, then Austin Ekeler, or a Unicorn
There are only three running backs who find themselves and lock first-round picks. Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and rookie Bijan Robinson find themselves drafted in the first round of FFPC High Stakes Drafts. Robinson is a rare mythical rookie who drafters are over the top excited about. The steam and enthusiasm surrounding Robinson tops early summer Saquon Barkley or Ezekiel Elliott in their rookie seasons. When August comes around, I expect Robinson to jump into the top five overall. More drafters will want to push up the unknown upside over a running back entering his seventh season in the league.
The Battle for RB4
The top three RBs have pulled away from the rest. We rarely see a fourth RB selected in the first round. However, there is a battle for the RB4 spot. Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley (two former RB1 Overall finishers) have seen increased competition from Nick Chubb. Chubb had a terrific 2022 season. He finished as the RB6 overall in PPG while playing 17 games. Drafters are betting on a giant offensive leap from Cleveland. As a result, drafters are betting that Chubb will be the biggest recipient.
Expect an Early QB Run Followed by a Gravitational Pull
FFPC drafters are betting on earlyish QB. Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen are all usually selected before the end of Round 3. Usually, one of these quarterbacks occasionally falls to the beginning of the fourth round. The NFFC is even more bullish on QB. In this format, quarterbacks are drafted as high as the 1/2 turn. The big three QBs have also caused a gravitational pull with the near elite tier. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson are selected in the fourth round. Justin Fields and Justin Herbert are picked somewhere between the late fifth and early sixth rounds. Trevor Lawrence has settled into the seventh round. Finally, Deshaun Watson is rising up draft boards. He is routinely selected in the eighth or ninth round.
Tight End is Easy to Predict
What is the TE story in FFPC? Drafters should grab a pen and write it down in ink. Ready? Here you go. Travis Kelce is a first rounder. Kelce is usually selected in the top five picks. Occasionally, he’s off the board at the very top. Mark Andrews is a lock second rounder. T.J. Hockenson is a third rounder. George Kittle and Kyle Pitts are selected in the fourth round. One of these players sometimes teases the early fifth-round. Darren Waller and Dallas Goedert are TE6 and TE7. Sometimes, one is a fifth-rounder. Other times, one is a sixth-rounder. Waller has separated from Goedert this past month.
There is No More Fear. The RB Dead Zone is Live
Fantasy football norms are being turned upside down. Sharp money is embracing the RB dead zone. The dead zone is a traditional do-not draft area for RBs. Typically, hit rates start to fall off sharply from the third to the sixth round. In the previous season, this made sense. Positional scarcity created artificial values, with RB2 types being pushed into a range where they often fail to return ADP values. This year, wide receivers are being drafted high. As a result, running backs are being pushed down the board. As a result, FFPC drafters are taking advantage.
Rookie WR Enthusiasm is Low
In 2021, Ja’Marr Chase fell during the summer. He was still a sixth rounder during the money weeks of late August/early September. Last season, Drake London‘s ADP rose to a similar level late in the summer. Jefferson is a paradox this season. We saw four rookie WRs were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.
However, there is hesitancy among drafters to push any of them up WR3 land. Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Quentin Johnston are in a logjam for the “top drafted rookie WR battle.” All three players are routinely available to you in the eighth round. Zay Flowers is selected even lower.
Check back all summer for more FFPC and High Stakes draft takeaways. Additionally, if you want to compete against me in FFPC Drafts, sign up with the code UNDERWORLD for a free $25 deposit.
