Dominating Your Best Ball Underdog Drafts: Mastering Week 17 Correlation and Stacking

Dominating Your Best Ball Underdog Drafts: Mastering Week 17 Correlation and Stacking

Are you ready to take your fantasy football game to the next level? It’s time to aim for the top prize of $3 million in the highly competitive Best Ball Mania 4 tournament. Forget about settling for a mediocre finish. We’re here to discuss why Week 17 holds the key to your success. Discover the crucial edges to consider during this pivotal week, uncover the power of stacking and correlation as game-changers, and learn how to execute the most effective strategies for Week 17. Get ready to crush your opponents and emerge victorious in Underdog Best Ball Drafts!

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Embrace the Power of Week 17

In Underdog Fantasy’s Best Ball Mania 4 Tournament, merely advancing to Round 2 won’t give you a significant advantage, as the multiplier has been reduced compared to previous years. However, the allure of the $3 million grand prize should be enough to entice fantasy drafters to explore the benefits of Week 17 stacking and correlation.

The Rise of Stacking and Why You Should Join In

Stacking has gained immense popularity as a winning strategy in recent years. Notable tournament winners like Pat Kerrane and @KingKappital utilized both early and late round stacks to emerge victorious in the BBM3 tournament.

Analyzing the data from BBM3, Michael Leone of Establish the Run (@2Hats1Mike) found that 88-percent of teams employed some form of stacking, with elite scoring teams incorporating this strategy about 80-percent of the time. In contrast, teams in the bottom 20th percentile stacked only about 30-percent of the time. By not implementing stacking, drafters become reliant on other factors such as ADP value and individual player predictions to succeed. Leone’s data goes even further, revealing that elite scoring teams executed two or more game stacks about 50-percent of the time, while below average teams did so a mere 5-percent of the time.

Week 17 Correlation: The Bring-Back

When you engage in stacking, you are already connecting the dots between players and their related outcomes. However, it’s essential to consider the concept of a bring-back player. Including a bring-back player from the opposing team in each game stack provides an additional level of correlation. It stands to reason that if your players are putting up impressive fantasy scores, then the opposing team in the same matchup is likely to provide a favorable fantasy matchup to keep up.

For example, Pat Kerrane stacked Tom Brady with Chris Godwin, and selected D.J. Moore as the bring-back player. Brady had a stellar performance, going 34/45 for 432 yards and three passing touchdowns, with Chris Godwin catching nine passes for 120 yards. As the bring-back, Moore contributed six passes for 117 yards and a touchdown.  The Buccaneers-Panthers matchup had the third-highest total points scored that week. Selecting the right game environment can significantly enhance your chances of success.

Leone’s analysis of BBM3 data supports the notion of a bring-back player. Teams with three to nine total game-stacked players achieved a higher weekly win rate than expected. The highest win rate over expected was observed when fantasy drafters selected between six and nine skill players from the same game stack, depending on whether they chose two or three quarterbacks.

Examples of Week 17 stacking and bring-backs:

  • GB @ MIN: Jefferson(Rd1) – Cousins(RD10) – C. Watson(RD4)
  • NYJ @ CLE: Wilson (RD1) – Rodgers (RD11) – Cooper(RD3)
  • DET @ DAL: Lamb (RD1) – Prescott (RD9) –  St. Brown (RD2)
  • LAC @ DEN: Allen(RD4) – Herbert (RD5) – Sutton (RD8)
  • CIN @ KC: Kelce (RD1) – Mahomes(RD2) – Higgins (RD3)

What Playing for Week 17 Does Not Mean

While Week 17 presents a tremendous opportunity for a big win, it doesn’t imply that fantasy drafters should disregard or sacrifice other crucial edges in favor of Week 17. 

Player Takes

  • Improve your player takes by reviewing the player profiles at RotoUnderworld and listening to our analysts. Ignoring the previous production (good or bad) or projecting wishful thinking that extends outside the ranges of previous outcomes can doom your team. No amount of Week 17 correlation can overcome wrong or bad player takes.

Team Structure

  • Both positional capital and roster construction provide necessary guardrails for success. For instance, a Travis Kelce team should generally not consider more than one other TE to draft. By drafting an elite TE, the drafter dedicates both positional capital and opportunity cost, leaving a need at other high-value positions that future selections will need to fulfill.

ADP Values

  • Reaching, that is selecting a player 12 or more spots ahead of ADP, nullifies the edge gained by stacking. Reaching, instead, puts your team at a disadvantage, as your squad competes against most teams that selected the same player at or after ADP. Passing on significant ADP values (12+ spot drops in rounds 4 to 14) for a game stack ignores an ability to build a unique team. 

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