Targeting Games for DFS Week 10 Matchups

by Chase Vernon · Strategy
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Oof. Revisiting Week 9 to write the DFS Week 10 matchups to target is rough. It’s a reminder that fantasy football is a fickle mistress, and not even the best can predict the proper outcomes. There were seven upsets; the majority of them involved teams who would have made the playoffs if they started before the week. In addition, high-scoring teams such as the Bills, Rams, Chiefs, Packers, and Cowboys could not put up points against bad defenses.

Weeks like this happen, so congratulations if you rolled out Matt Ryan with Olamide Zaccheaus, then snuck in James Conner and ran it back with George Kittle. I’m sure the cherry on top for you was Malik Turner and the Jaguars defense. Realistically, finding a lineup like this is impossible and chasing volatile players will lose millions before making them. So cheers to throwing Week 9 away and sticking to the process which has been proven to be more successful than not.

Games to Target in Week 10 DFS Matchups

The DFS matchups for Week 10 are heavily reliant on the DOCE Score. There are some options people have been using thus far, which should be avoided as we look at the slate. D’Andre Swift against the Steelers and Ty Johnson against the Bills are just two to mention. James Conner or Eno Benjamin against the Panthers is another one as well. However, there are some games you should smash the stacks with the quarterback-running back combination.

Buccaneers @ Football Team

Weather: 45f Partly Cloudy

Over/Under: 51

Fact to Know: J.D. McKissic has tripled his ROI in 50-percent of the games in 2021 despite only having two touchdowns. However, his pricing continues to fluctuate, primarily due to them not happening in back-to-back contests.

Players to Attack in DFS Week 9 Matchup

J.D. McKissic $5,200

Mike Evans $6,900

Leonard Fournette $6,100 

Terry McLaurin $7,600

Tom Brady $7,600

Tyler Johnson $3,300 

DeAndre Carter $3,000

Taylor Heinicke $5,400

Logan Thomas $4,000

Cyril Grayson $3,000

Ricky Seals-Jones $3,700 

The DFS Week 10 matchup between the Buccaneers and Washington Football Team is juicy. There is a minor issue, however. How do you want to attack it?

Route 1: Follow the History

The Buccaneers and Football Team faced off in the 2020 Wild Card round. It was arguably the Buccaneers most competitive playoff game as Taylor Heinicke – in his second start of the season – put up 306 yards passing with a touchdown and interception, accompanied by 46 yards along with a touchdown on the ground. 

Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin gave you DFS worthy performances with Tom Brady almost hitting 400 yards while giving you two touchdowns. Washington, on the other hand, only had Cam Sims and Logan Thomas to tout on the DFS slate. 

If you follow history, you are stacking the Bucs side heavily while playing one option in the passing game. With the defense focused on Terry McLaurin, playing DeAndre Carter could be a sneaky good play. Over the past two games, Carter has run the third-most routes with the second most targets. In Week 8, he led the team in targets (six), receptions (three), yards (51), and touchdowns (one).

Route 2: Follow Vegas

If you decided to follow Vegas, you believe in a blowout on the Bucs side with the Football Team still able to get in the end zone a couple of times. Terry McLaurin and J.D. McKissic will both be valued options here, and McLaurin being the fourth-most expensive wide receiver on the slate should push roster percentages off. Meanwhile, it makes for the ideal Brady-Evans-Fournette stack. 

Route 3: Contrarian

This is one way to leverage this game and possibly the slate. There are some great running backs I’d love to play in the DFS Week 10 matchups, but the pricing makes it difficult. However, if you think Washington can come back firing after a bye, then a contrarian play could pay off tremendously. 

Heinicke offers rushing upside, so you don’t need to stack a bunch of players around him. In fact, I might argue you can run him naked. However, McKissic or McLaurin will likely play a role in his success; meanwhile, don’t forget about Carter. 

By going with McKissic and Heinicke, only 21.2-percent of your cap is taken compared to 29-percent if you went Brady and Evans, for example. The 7.8-percent difference is the same as playing Dare Ogunbowale over Najee Harris

Seahawks @ Packers

Weather: 36f Mostly Cloudy

Over/Under: 49

Fact to Know: Tyler Lockett has three top-five DraftKings finishes over eight weeks. Two came during the four games Russell Wilson played in entirety. In Lockett’s first five seasons, he wasn’t playable in DFS the week following the bye. However, in 2020, he gave you 56 points against the Cardinals.

Players to Attack in DFS Week 9 Matchup

Tyler Lockett $6,500

Davante Adams $7,900

D.K. Metcalf $6,800

A.J. Dillon $4,800

Aaron Jones $6,900

Russell Wilson $6,700 

Aaron Rodgers $7,100

Allen Lazard $4,400 

Receivers who are great at finding open space thrive against the Packers. Terry McLaurin torched the Packers and, while struggling against man this season, destroys zone schemes. Diontae Johnson is another player who does well against zone, and he put up 24.2 points against the Packers. 

Lockett, who does well against both, becomes a target hog against zone schemes. D.K. Metcalf almost doubles Lockett’s targets against man, but Lockett has seen seven more when it comes to finding gaps against zone. I still want both in my lineups, but keep in mind, the Packers are only allowing a seven-percent (No.6) explosive play percentage against the pass. Metcalf always has upside, but I’m leaning Lockett against the Packers. 

Of course, you want Davante Adams in on this DFS matchup. The Seahawks have struggled to shut down the primary receiver in all but one game in 2021. However, as I stated in Waiver Wire Trash, only the Rams and Vikings – two of the elite receiving duos in the NFL – have had a secondary receiver score double-digit points. However, pass-catching running backs are a different story. 

The Seahawks have a league-worst 14.09 DOCE Score. Only 13 backs have counted as pass catchers, but they are giving up 15.1 (No. 31) points per game. Allowing seven (No. 31) receptions per game and 65.6 (No. 31) yards per game has resulted in at least one running back hitting the success threshold of eight points through the air in all but one game . In all but two games, they allowed double-digit points.

Now the tricky part is figuring out which Packers back to target. A.J. Dillon saw an increased role, and when he gets the targets, he performs. In the two weeks Dillon received four looks in the passing game, he converted all eight for 93 yards and a score. 

In addition, if offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett looks at the film from Week 2, he could use Dillon similarly to Derrick Henry when he racked up 182 yards and three touchdowns against the Seahawks. So would I start Dillon over Jones in redraft? Absolutely not. However, Jones at $6,900 and Dillon at $4,800 make for an interesting contrarian run back to differentiate yourself from the field and play the studs. 

Now, I know I recommended fading the receivers, but Lazard could be a fun dart throw out of the slot. The Packers have noticed mismatches in the red zone. 

Ugo Amadi Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

These are the three players in coverage when the 6-5, 225-pound giant with a 125.6 (74th-percentile ) Burst Score and 10.19 (74th-percentile) Catch Radius grabbed touchdowns in three-straight contests. 

He could line up across from Ugo Amadi in Week 10—need I say more?

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Other Sneaky Game Stacks

Jonathan Taylor $8,100

Marvin Jones $5,800

Michael Pittman $6,300

James Robinson $6,200 

Jonathan Taylor should have a field day against the Jaguars. Since Week 4, he has been on an absolute tear, putting up at least 23.4 points in each game. The best part is, he’s doing it through the air and the ground.

The DOCE Score is affected by multiple different variables, one being Game Script. The Jaguars are one of those teams who has a solid DOCE Score because teams don’t have to pass often. However, in games where the Jaguars are competitive, teams opt to use their running backs in the passing game. The Jaguars have a decent run defense, only allowing 3.52 yards per carry. 

In Week 10, I expect Taylor to follow in the shoes of Derrick Henry and crush the 100-yard mark on the ground. Meanwhile, an additional five-plus receptions are not out of the question in this divisional rivalry. However, for Taylor to be successful, the Jaguars will have to score, and Marvin Jones could be the one responsible. 

The last time Jones faced the Colts, he took advantage of their lackadaisical secondary and managed two touchdowns on just three receptions. The way he’s utilized as more of a deep threat in Jacksonville should play to the Colts weaknesses. Tyler Lockett, Marquise Brown, Brandin Cooks, and Elijah Moore profile as similar players in similar roles and have all had massive fantasy outputs against the Colts. 

Matt Ryan $6,000

Cordarrelle Patterson $6,600

Olamide Zaccheaus $4,400

Dak Prescott $6,900

Ezekiel Elliott $7,000

Michael Gallup $4,000

Amari Cooper $6,200

Russell Gage $5,000

CeeDee Lamb $7,000

Hayden Hurst $2,800

Kyle Pitts $5,800

When you sit down to type an article, sometimes research tears you in a different direction than you planned. For example, I started writing about this game in the “DFS Week 10 Matchups to Target,” but my research said to stop.

It wasn’t because the Falcons-Cowboys game was a bad game to target, but more so; which direction could this game go? 

Could Trevon Diggs actually shadow a “tight end” in Kyle Pitts? Would Diggs shadowing give an advantage to the run and screen game? Would the Falcons actually pick up on it? How healthy are CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper? Who will man the slot for the Falcons? What will Michael Gallups usage look like? Who the hell is Malik Turner?

Unlike the Bucs-Football Team matchup, I found myself making cases for multiple cases in multiple situations. For example, the Cowboys could be up big with Ezekiel Elliot giving you 90 yards rushing with two receptions for 20 yards and no scores, then get pulled for Tony Pollard in the fourth. Meanwhile, the receivers give you 175 yards, but it’s all spread out: Gallup has 40 yards on two receptions and a touchdown, Lamb has five for 60 yards, and Cooper has seven for 75. 

Well, how did they get up big? Because Dalton Schultz has two receptions for four yards with two touchdowns, while Dak Prescott totals 200 yards with three passing and one rushing on a sneak.

With those stat lines, the only one you’re ecstatic about is Shultz. But I’m still dabbling in this game because of a high Pace of Play and point total, but nothing has stuck out to me saying “this is the guy you want to target” or “this is the route you should go.” So when I can’t build a path, I typically play those lineups in moderation and as one-offs. 

Couple of Dart Throws

Jalen Reagor $3,500

I’m digging here, and anyone who knows me will think it is a cry for help. I haven’t been kidnapped—I’m good. Although the Broncos have been great against receivers in 2021, they have actually allowed an 11-percent (No. 25) explosive play rate in the air. Players like Marquise Brown, Darius Slayton, and Henry Ruggs all had deep receptions against them, which makes me hopeful for Reagor. At $3,500, the juice is worth the squeeze. Quez Watkins is right there with him.

Donovan Peoples-Jones $4,800

  
Donovan Peoples-Jones is someone I am targeting heavily against the Patriots. In his career, he has seen three targets seven times. In all but one, he has given you double-digit fantasy points. Baker Mayfield will likely see an increase in attempts which should lead to plenty of opportunities for Peoples-Jones.

Now, go win millions and hook a buddy up!