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DFS

Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 13

by Cornhole God, December 5, 2021

Vegas predicts that the divisional matchup between Tampa Bay and Atlanta will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, with a 50.5-point total. And the beloved Cordarrelle Patterson will be the beneficiary, hitting the OVER with ease. Patterson is one of the most efficient “running backs” in the NFL. His 12.2 (No. 1 among qualified running backs) Yards Per Reception and 6.8 (No. 1) Yards Per Touch will be on full display against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

Ja’Marr Chase is coming to smash the OVER in another game with a high total of 49.5 points. Three of the past four games were blowout victories for the Bengals, which have contributed to Chase’s subpar receiving yards. On the contrary, the competitive matchup against the Chargers will provide more opportunity for Chase to rack up yards with his 99.4-percent (No. 2) Route Participation and 41.6-percent (No. 4) Air Yards Share. 

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks for Week 13

by Dookie Hogue, December 4, 2021

The Bucs tend to pressure opposing teams into passing by running up the score. Since opposing offenses have mostly abandoned the run, the Bucs are allowing a league-high 71-percent Pass Percentage. They also allow a 75-percent (No. 3) Passing TD Percentage. Matt Ryan himself is inexpensive ($5,600) and his counterparts are as well (Kyle Pitts at $5,600 and Russell Gage at $5,300). Paying down for Ryan gives you a great way to approach the game ranked No. 3 in Pace of Play.

With Darren Waller listed doubtful with a variety of injuries, the public will be drawn to Foster Moreau. A leverage play tight-end from the same game is the Football Team’s Logan Thomas. In games he’s started, he averages an elite 20.9-percent Air Yards Share (31.3-percent in Week 12). He makes a great low-rostered pairing with Taylor Heinicke with the Raiders having been had by opposing tight ends, ranking No. 5 in aFPA.

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Targeting Games for Week 13 DFS Matchups

by Chase Vernon, December 3, 2021

Pick your poison. Chargers-Bengals is the highest scoring game on the slate with two defenses susceptible to the running back in different ways: one on the ground, one in the air. Both running backs have the opposite team’s kryptonite. Austin Ekeler has been on fire, accumulating 14.22 points in the air over the last five games and 17.9 over the previous three. As for Joe Mixon, he is the third-highest scoring running back on the slate, just two points less per game than Ekeler.

Jonathan Taylor should continue his rampage on the ground. Look for the Colts to get Michael Pittman more involved as we close in on the playoffs. With the Colts in comeback mode, Brevin Jordan against one of the worst secondaries facing tight ends in 2021 is an appetizing play as he forced Jordan Akins to the inactive list. Pharaoh Brown is still the lead tight end, but he’s obviously there to block. I’m predicting over 30 yards and a touchdown to the rookie. Nico Collins has a similar outlook. 

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 13

by Edward DeLauter, December 3, 2021

Terry McLaurin makes his season debut on the Air Yards Value Index. He is coming off a game where he failed to crest double digit fantasy points against a exploitable Seattle secondary. While his matchup this week against the Raiders is less appealing, McLaurin should continue to see copious volume in Washington’s offense. He is averaging 111 Air Yards on the season and is tops in the league in Air Yards Share.

Marvin Jones hasn’t posted more than double digits fantasy points since Week 6 when he finished as the WR9 posting 23 fantasy points. However he has averaged over 6 targets per game and seen at least 50 Air Yards per game since this time. With the Jaguars likely playing catchup against a high powered Ram offense, Jones makes for a great run-back option in Week 13 if you are stacking Rams in your tournament lineup.

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Three DFS Quarterback-Wide Receiver Stacks for Week 13

by Taylor Williams, December 3, 2021

As heavy favorites at expensive salaries (over 16K for the stack), the Matthew Stafford-Cooer Kupp pair should go under-rostered relative to upside. The Rams are tied for the highest implied total on the slate at over 30 points. Working in our favor is the fact that this a team that doesn’t take their foot off the gas when winning.

Tua Tagovailoa isn’t throwing as deep as Matthew Stafford, only 6.6 (No. 34 among qualified quarterbacks) Air Yards per Attempt, but is completing passes at an elite level. His 75.3-percent True Completion Percentage ranks No. 2, while he’s also top five in completion percentage in the redzone, clean pockets, and off play action. With nearly a $1K price jump over the last two weeks, Jaylen Waddle looks like an excellent Buy High opportunity this week as other fantasy gamers balk at the increase.

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High Value Touch DFS Index – Week 13

by Mark Kieffer, December 2, 2021

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Not any cash plays in the index but a handful of tournament pivots off of popular cash game plays. Josh Jacobs for Elijah Mitchell or Myles Gaskin for Jamaal Williams could make sense in tournaments, especially large field ones where looking to be different.

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Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 12

by Cornhole God, November 27, 2021

Cam Newton and Robby Anderson are BACK. Anderson has averaged 6 targets and 4.5 receptions on a 20-percent Target Share in his last two games without Sam Darnold. Also, the matchup is prime for Anderson because Miami ranks last in receiving yards and receptions allowed. The probability of Anderson hitting the OVER is strong when considering his current trajectory in the Carolina offense in conjunction with the leaky Miami defense.

Take the OVER on Trevor Lawrence in a bounce back game against Atlanta. Lawrence hit the UNDER on this line in his past three games against Buffalo, Indianapolis and San Francisco, but Atlanta’s defense is one of the friendliest to opposing quarterbacks, ranking dead last in quarterback pressures and No. 30 in opponent completion percentage. As a result, Lawrence will not be hamstrung by his dreadful 29.4-percent (No. 34 among qualified quarterbacks) Pressured Completion Percentage.

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Targeting Games for Week 12 DFS Matchups

by Chase Vernon, November 27, 2021

You can mix Miles Sanders into Giants-Eagles game stacks after he registered a season-high in carries with his second-most red zone attempts, returning from his first game since getting injured. His pricing alone makes for a sexy play, not to mention the Giants rank No. 28 against the running back. He is just $100 above Chuba Hubbard and $200 above Giovani Bernard and Mike Davis. 

The Bucs have allowed 13 receiving touchdowns to only six rushing touchdowns on the year. The Carson Wentz-Michael Pittman connection will be alive and well. Not only does Pittman have 81 (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) targets, he also has 11 (No. 16) red zone targets and 516 (No. 11) Completed Air Yards. Regardless of who is in coverage, Pittman is going to eat. 

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks for Week 12

by Dookie Hogue, November 27, 2021

A week removed from a top three QB finish (30.8 DKPt), Jalen Hurts projects as the QB2. While the trio of rushing touchdowns against New Orleans was a bit of a fluke, Hurts’ QB1 upside is not. Expect a lot of plays to be run on both sides of the ball as this game leads the slate in Pace of Play. Pair Hurts with DeVonta Smith or Dallas Goedert or run him solo but whatever you do, don’t fade him.

With Cam Newton injected back into the Panther’s offense, Robby Anderson is back in the conversation. With Newton, Anderson has nearly matched D.J. Moore with a 20-percent Target Share and Receptions (9). The Dolphins can be had over the top too, as they rank dead last in explosive plays (20 plus yards downfield). At only $4,700 and projecting to be hardly owned, there are worse spots to find this kind of upside.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 12

by Edward DeLauter, November 26, 2021

Devonta Smith cooled off last week posting only 10.1 fantasy points against Marshon Lattimore and the Saints. However, Smith has averaged 14.5 Fantasy Points Per Game over the past four weeks. Up against another top corner in James Bradberry, Smith may find it difficult to post more the 20 FPPG like he did in Weeks 9 and 10, however his floor remains high based on his share of Air Yards in the Eagles offense. He is a recommended play in all formats.

Courtland Sutton’s vanishing act since Jerry Jeudy’s return is outright alarming. In games that Jeudy has not played in this season, Sutton has averaged 146 Air Yards. In the games that Jeudy has played, that average plummets to 43 Air Yards. He has been outgained in Air Yards the past two games by both Tim Patrick and Jeudy. Sutton is a tournament dart throw this week.

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