RotoUnderworld Junior Writer Draft Recap No. 1 – 2021 Dynasty SuperFlex Startup

by Lucas Mir · Draft Strategy

Joining a Dynasty SuperFlex Startup draft can be overwhelming, especially this offseason. In years past, obtaining quarterbacks has been much easier than it is now. John Hogue even gave the phenomenon of quarterbacks being undervalued in Dynasty SuperFlex startup drafts a name. Hogue dubbed it “The SuperFlex Theorem,” stating that quarterbacks gained approximately two rounds of ADP value immediately after the startup draft ended. In other words, quarterbacks were about the same value as players from other positions with ADPs two rounds earlier. Unfortunately, this Dynasty SuperFlex Startup cheat code seems to be gone this season.

There were nine quarterbacks taken in the first round of this draft, and that’s to be expected this season. An average of eight quarterbacks have been taken in the first round of SuperFlex startup drafts this past month, per MFL ADP. This philosophy change makes it harder than ever to build a robust QB roster, and sharply raises the opportunity cost of passing on a quarterback in the early first round.

Can we leverage PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats and metrics to be able to work around this cheat code removal and put together a championship-caliber squad?


League Settings

-1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 SuperFlex, 5 Flex, 6 Bench

-Full PPR, no TE Premium, 4-point passing touchdowns

The Picks

1.03) Kyler Murray (QB3)

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen went with the first two picks, leaving Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott as the last quarterbacks left in the top tier. Murray averaged 8.3 (No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks) carries per game and 25 (No. 3) red zone carries per game, logging 819 (No. 2) rushing yards and 11 (No. 2) rushing touchdowns, so I prefer him to Prescott for his rushing upside.

2.10) Jalen Hurts (QB12)

A bit unexpected, only 11 of the top 21 picks were quarterbacks, including two rookies in Trey Lance and Trevor Lawrence. Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields were available here, while D’Andre Swift and A.J. Brown were also on the board. Due to the league settings requiring only one running back to start, that position should be discounted. Hurts’ rushing ability gives him league-winning upside, so I chose him here to lock down the QB position. Just four picks separate me from my next selection, so there should be a good RB/WR available there.

3.03) D’Andre Swift (RB9)

As I hoped, a skill position player in D’Andre Swift fell to me in the third round. Swift is poised to break out in 2021 after taking over the primary back role at the end of 2020. A premier young running back in the third round of a startup? Count me in!

4.10) Miles Sanders (RB18)

Miles Sanders is dropping down draft boards, but I don’t agree with the discount after he logged a 76.3-percent (No. 6) Opportunity Share in 2020. The Eagles didn’t invest anything substantial into the running back position this offseason, so I am a Sanders truther until further notice. I will not be scared off of a player this talented by waiver activity and a fifth rounder in Kenny Gainwell.

5.03) Michael Thomas (WR11)

Michael Thomas in the fifth round feels wrong. So far this offseason, I’ve gotten Thomas in every single draft I’ve done, all in the fifth round. If Jameis Winston is under center, he will have the kind of league-winning upside that he showed in 2019. With Taysom Hill at quarterback, his ceiling is a little bit lower, but he is still a top receiver in the league. The only real mark against him in dynasty is his age, but he is younger than Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins, and only a year older than Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, and Mike Evans.

6.10) Zach Wilson (QB23)

Zach Wilson going at QB23 after Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz is highway robbery. I’m not even the biggest fan of Wilson as a prospect, but he is almost surely going to gain value from this point, and accruing value is my goal when drafting dynasty rosters.

7.03) Mac Jones (QB26)

Mac Jones is the same story as Zach Wilson. These guys are falling too far considering the draft capital behind them and the likelihood of them starting this year. Once either of these players has a single good game at the NFL level, their value will skyrocket. We see it every year with players like Drew Lock during the 2020 offseason, Baker Mayfield after his rookie season, or even Gardner Minshew.

8.10) Chase Claypool (WR30)

High touchdown totals from the previous season used to be a mark that a player was overvalued, but the fantasy industry seems to have overadjusted with Chase Claypool’s current cost. Claypool’s main concern coming out of college was his unique prospect profile, but after his first year as a pro, it is clear that he is an NFL caliber wide receiver.

9.03) Leonard Fournette (RB28)

Leonard Fournette was the lead back during Tampa’s Super Bowl run, and they only added 29-year-old Giovani Bernard to the backfield. Older players like this are never sexy picks during the offseason, but they are often the ones who provide the most valuable selling opportunities during the season. The goal with this pick is to accrue value and move this player in-season. If that is not possible, Fournette should be a solid starting option during the year.

10.10) Terrace Marshall (WR41)

Terrace Marshall has the size, athleticism, and Breakout Age, but likely fell in the draft due to health issues. His ceiling is as high as any player in this rookie class, and high ceilings win fantasy championships.

11.03) Rondale Moore (WR45)

Rondale Moore’s size issues are trumped by him getting second round draft capital. At the modest price of WR45, this is a dart I am absolutely willing to throw outside of the top 100 players,.

12.10) James Conner (RB44)

Everyone has that one pick that they time out on, and this was the one for me in this draft. Luckily, this isn’t a pick with much value, so ending up with James Conner over the other available options won’t sink the ship. Regardless, his time in the NFL is likely coming to an end soon. Immediately after he has a boom week with multiple touchdowns, he should be traded.

13.03) Anthony Firkser (TE17)

Anthony Firkser looks like he should be a top target on his team, and that’s all it takes to be relevant at this position in fantasy football. Looking to add more late tight ends after this pick.

14.10) Will Fuller (WR59)

Will Fuller at WR59 in the 14th round? I still don’t get how this happened. Fuller should have gone closer to where Terrace Marshall and Rondale Moore were picked. This value is unbelievable, and Fuller will easily be a day 1 starter for this team. His efficiency in 2020 was unrivaled for players going in this price range.

15.03) Antonio Brown (WR62)

Antonio Brown has a league-winning ceiling, unlike other players in this range. After joining the Buccaneers in Week 9, Brown averaged 14.6 (No. 23) Fantasy Points Per Game. This was with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both healthy through that stretch of games. It’s not difficult to envision Brown being a low-end WR2 this season with elite upside if either Godwin or Evans are hurt.

16.10) Pat Freiermuth (TE24)

Pat Freiermuth was an absolute stud in college at Penn State, and has good draft capital behind him as he heads to Pittsburgh. One issue with joining the Steelers is the three talented pass-catchers ahead of him and an aging Ben Roethlisberger, but those factors discounting him to TE24 is an over-adjustment.

Final Thoughts

This roster came out well balanced with a nice combination of young players that will gain value this year and older players that are more likely to be consistent fantasy producers. Two Konami Code quarterbacks paired with two young stud running backs should make this team a contender.

Full draft board from Dynasty SuperFlex Startup

The Zach Wilson and Mac Jones picks weakened the starting roster, but starting quarterbacks are too valuable in SuperFlex to pass on young first round picks in the sixth and seventh rounds of startups. Values like Will Fuller and Antonio Brown in the 14th and 15th rounds can hopefully lift this lineup into immediate contention.