Player Profiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Dan Williamson shares his Dynasty Draft Startup Strategy: Building better with six key rules.
Dynasty Draft Startup Strategy: Building Better
There’s no better time to add to your dynasty portfolio than right now. Free agency is in full swing and the NFL draft is fast approaching. The news cycle will spur player movement in every fantasy format. However, some of the biggest bargains will come in dynasty leagues if you play the market correctly. I’ve been drafting startups in the dynasty format for 11 years now, and I’ve yet to orphan any team that I’ve drafted as a startup. Instead, I’ve learned to build them the right way from the very beginning. Here are the biggest lessons learned in constructing my own teams and observing other managers in each of my leagues doing the same.
1. Use the Fantastic Trade Analyzer in the Dynasty Deluxe Package at Player Profiler
I promise you I’m not a shill for the house here. What I’m about to say is 100% true, and I back it up with my actions on a daily basis. If you’re at all serious about playing dynasty football, you NEED the Dynasty Deluxe package. The rankings, the ADP tracker, the player profiles, the Rookie Guide…these are all fantastic tools that I use daily even though I’ve been playing Dynasty for 11 years now. But, the very best tool of them all is the Trade Analyzer.
It’s an absolute necessity for building confidence to make good trades in startup drafts. These trades can be complex combinations of startup picks, future rookie picks, and even already-drafted players. You don’t have to win every trade, according to the Trade Analyzer. However, if you make a habit of losing trades by not using it, playing dynasty will be an uphill climb. Best of all, tthe Trade Analyzer is regularly audited and changed by the excellent Dynasty team here at PlayerProfiler. Changes are based on our own experiences in making trades and taking into account each player’s current talent and situation.
2. Trade FOR Future Draft Picks Early in the Draft Even if You Plan to Play a Win-Now Strategy
This might seem like crazy talk. So, let me explain. Future draft picks are always, always, always the most liquid assets your team can own. Use them later in the startup draft to buy a pick or picks. You can also use them to move around the draft board to swoop in and steal players that fit your build at a bargain price.
Also, use these picks after the draft to help your team navigate an unexpected injury. They’re also useful to trade for a key player down the stretch run to put their team over the top. The more value you can store in future picks early in the draft, the better. This will always be a tenet of good Dynasty Startup Strategy.
Last year, I did three startups. Two of them were planned as productive-struggle builds where I prioritized youth and future draft capital. The 3rd league was a win-now build that also hoarded future draft picks. Throughout the season, I used these picks to facilitate trades for Mike Evans, James Conner, and Cooper Kupp, each of whom played instrumental roles in helping me win the league. Having a stockpile of picks to utilize throughout the season took the pressure off of getting all my player selections exactly right in the startup.
Nobody has a crystal ball. An arsenal of picks gives flexibility to roll with the punches of the NFL season while restocking your team on the fly.
The Overconfidence Trap
The teams that most often become orphans are those where the manager foolishly trades away most or all of their future rookie picks, and then succumb to bad injury luck and/or older players hitting the age cliff once the season begins. Few dynasty managers who execute such a short-sighted strategy have the willpower to stick through a long rebuild made even longer by sacrificing their future for a present that never arrived.
Don’t be that manager. Remember, liquidity is your friend when uncertainty abounds. The longer you wait to deploy liquidity (picks) into hard assets (players), the better you can accomplish your goals throughout the season.
Trading Future Firsts
If you acquire someone else’s first-rounder early in a startup and later decide that you need to trade away a 1st to nab a desired player, you now have some level of optionality over which pick you want to trade. When other managers see you’ve acquired excess picks, they may assume that you are planning to tank the first year. They may then gravitate towards asking for your 1st rather than the one you’ve traded for.
If you’re planning to go for a title immediately, this can work to your advantage. Also, there may be one or more managers who eagerly trade away their future 1sts. If they fumble the startup draft, building an only marginally competitive team, those picks become more valuable than expected.
3. Don’t Overpay for Non-Elite WRs
Of course, trading down in a startup to pick up those highly liquid future draft picks means you’ll need a plan to field a highly competitive team. One extremely effective Dynasty Startup Strategy is to sacrifice “sex appeal” in favor of similar productivity from less-sexy assets. For example, you could take Devonta Smith with a fifth-round startup pick. Or, you could instead take Jerry Jeudy in the ninth round. You should be able to get a future first instead of making the pick in the fifth round. Only one of them is the WR1 on his own NFL team, and it’s not Devonta Smith.
In a vacuum, Smith might be the better player, but we don’t play dynasty leagues in a vacuum. Give me the cheaper player who’s likely going to be a target hog. Someone else can overpay for the player who’s the third option on his team after Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown. Oh, and Jeudy is the younger player as well.
Don’t Believe the Hype
A huge hack of Dynasty is realizing numerous wide receivers are stuck scoring between 11-15 PPG every year, yet the cost to acquire them varies wildly. Don’t pay up for hope and hype. Only pay up for projectable targets. Jaylen Waddle has the physical talents that make any good dynasty manager drool. Last year at this time, he was going between picks 35-40 in Superflex/TriFlex startups.
However, since Tyreek Hill arrived in Miami, Waddle hasn’t topped 117 targets in a season. And guess what happened again last year? Waddle only got 83 targets, despite Tyreek Hill‘s nagging wrist injury. Now Waddle’s ADP has dropped to the mid-60s. So if you were the sucker who bought in at last spring’s prices, you’ve lost a good bit of value.
2025 Candidates
This year, that guy is Jordan Addison. Once again, we have a player who is riding shotgun to an elite teammate in Justin Jefferson. TJ Hockenson is also a drain on his target volume. Despite those headwinds, you’ll probably have to take Addison around the WR21-23 range in your startup this year. That’s a steep price to pay when there are WRs going several rounds later, such as the aforementioned Jerry Jeudy, with a much cleaner path to success. Jeudy still offers years of value before hitting the age cliff. Or take a chance and try Ricky Pearsall or Josh Downs. Both are of similar age to Addison, with intriguing skill sets and wide-open depth charts in front of them. The ADPs for all 3 of those pivots from Addison are in the WR42-48 range. Trade down and profit.
If a WR doesn’t have a likely path to 135+ targets, they’ll likely leave you at least slightly disappointed, barring a fluky season of TD-scoring prowess. Let others buy the hype of Metcalf, Waddle, and Zay Flowers (just to name a few). Sell those picks you’d use on them for future draft capital that can be more efficiently deployed.
4. Elite TE is an Edge Worth Paying For, But Don’t Chase
TE-Premium scoring is rapidly becoming the norm in Dynasty. Having two or even three flex spots available for TEs is also quite common. As such, you may have good reason to spend your precious start-up draft capital for an elite TE. To be truly elite, a TE must reliably project as a top-2 target on his own NFL offense. Rostering one gives you a big advantage at a “onesie” position. If you somehow end up with more than one of them due to a surprise breakout by a later-drafted player, you can always use them as a flex or trade bait.
For this year, the elite TEs are Brock Bowers and Tre McBride at the top of drafts. Somewhat later, George Kittle is primed to have at least one more big year despite his age. Potentially joining that list (for at least this year) are T.J. Hockenson and David Njoku. And that’s it. Once these players are gone, you are better off waiting until the double-digit rounds. Otherwise you’re just throwing away draft capital that is much better spent on other positions. Sure, a player like Sam LaPorta could always muscle his way inside the top-5, but he’s an expensive option with lots of target competition. That’s a lot of risk to take with an early pick.
Don’t Be An Ageist
This is the one position where mastery of the position can take years, and players can age like fine wine. Five of the top-scoring seven TEs last year were past their 29th birthday when the season began. OK, technically, Mark Andrews was one day short of his 29th birthday, but you get my point. 35-year-old Travis Kelce is currently valued as the TE21 in dynasty despite never finishing worse than TE5 since 2015. Sure, Father Time is undefeated. But making cheap bets on players with that kind of history is how we leverage ADP to our advantage.
Additionally this is a position that always seems to have several surprise players. Last year, Zach Ertz and Jonnu Smith were dynasty afterthoughts during the drafting season. Most managers instead continued to chase yet-to-breakout “studs” like Kyle Pitts and Dalton Kincaid. Ertz and Smith could easily be ADP-busters again this year, primarily due to their age. Perhaps they’ll be joined by fellow graybeards Travis Kelce and Evan Engram. We could also see surprise seasons from Brenton Strange, Cole Kmet, or Isaiah Likely, among others.
The bottom line is that taking TEs in the mid-rounds of your startup draft is likely a poor choice. The upside for most of the TEs available here is already baked into the price. If you don’t get an early elite TE, start prospecting after the 10th round when other positions (especially QB and WR) have already been picked clean. Grab 1-2 youthful options with some breakout potential and a boring, unsexy veteran or two with a track record of success, and you’ll be in good shape.
5. Be Careful When Paying up for QB in SuperFlex
Drafting proven elite options like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts is always a good move. You probably won’t be sorry taking Jayden Daniels either, even though we’ve only seen one season from him. Past that point, though, you can pivot. Avoid exciting but relatively unproven options such as Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, and CJ Stroud (all going by the end of Round 2). Instead, take the much safer, more proven Justin Herbert in that range.
Perhaps best of all, though, just avoid these Tier 2 QBs entirely. Pivot by dropping down to the Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence, and Baker Mayfield tier in the late 4th round. Or wait even longer for Jared Goff and Dak Prescott in the late 5th. This allows you to pick up a premium WR, TE, or RB in the 2nd round while actually building a safer QB room that still allows some upside shots later in the draft.
Sure, Caleb might still become the next Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow. He could also be the next Derek Carr. Betting on the come is wise if the price hasn’t already baked in most of the upside as it has for Caleb. Fantasy-wise, Brock Purdy is a far safer bet, albeit with a somewhat lower ceiling. But since his NFL team is buying into his future, so should we. Once again, being willing to move back is going to free up draft capital that you can spend in better ways or add future picks to your collection. Both are great examples of the Dynasty Startup Strategy to implement in a startup.
Another Secret
Another seldom-discussed Dynasty Startup Strategy is that you don’t have to pay up at all to field quality QBs. Your timeline at QB, even in a SuperFlex, needn’t be more than a couple of years. You’ll have plenty of opportunities to draft and trade your way into new options. Occasionally, you can even pick up QBs off the waiver wire that will turn into starters for you.
It’s certainly comforting to have one highly coveted and highly productive QB to build around, but slumming it in the mid-late rounds for your QB2 and QB3 really makes better use of precious draft capital. Justin Fields has historically been a top-10 option at worst as a starter, yet he’s currently the dynasty QB26, despite likely having a stranglehold on the starting job this year. That’s a great upside bet to make as your QB3 and you’re just freeing up excess draft capital by making this move. Draft a top QB, then save precious draft capital by pairing Fields with the unexciting Matt Stafford for safety. Alternately, you can go for the gusto by pairing Fields with Anthony Richardson and you’ll be in great shape at the position for your first year. Either way, you still plenty of time to adjust if the long-term outlook goes sour.
6. Hero RB Is Still A Viable Strategy In Startups
Nothing destroys dynasty capital faster than paying a premium for replaceable RBs or RBs who are past the age apex. That’s anyone starting the season after their 26th birthday. Later in drafts, these RBs make sense. Early in our drafts though, we want to spend that precious high-round draft capital on players with staying power. Saquon Barkley is tempting for win-now squads, but given his age and workload last year, the odds of a repeat performance of 2024 are slim. We always want to be skating to where the puck is going. Not to where it’s currently at.
According to Keep/Trade/Cut’s SuperFlex dynasty rankings, the top 22 running backs are currently going inside the first eight rounds of the draft. By the end of the 8th round, we’ve also seen roughly 27 QBs and more than 40 WRs go off the board. It’s so much easier to build a resilient team around the QB and WR positions than around RBs. Our objective should be to have just enough RB firepower to accomplish our goals for the first year of our dynasty team, whatever those goals might be.
2025 Version
If you plan to win the first year, then you’ll need to pump up that RB position a little more. But it doesn’t have to be heavily focused on the early rounds. Having one hero RB to build around is a sensible approach. It’s then possible to focus on QB/WR during your remaining picks in those vital early rounds. It’s then easy to maneuver within the draft to snipe enough cheaper RBs to fill out a starting lineup, plus at least one more for depth.
Currently, Tyrone Tracy and Najee Harris are ninth-round values. James Conner and Brian Robinson are there for us in the 10t. After that, Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard currently inhabit the 11th round. Grab what you need from that group, then fill the rest of your RB room with lottery-ticket RBs who are just an injury away from being startable options.
Accumulating Picks
This is where trading back really shines. Using the strategies outlined above at QB, RB, and WR, you should be able to arm yourself with plenty of picks in the 9th through 12th rounds where many of the productive veterans hang out. You should also have a small handful of extra future 2nds and 3rds to help you buy in-season reinforcements if needed. This is antifragility in action.
If your goal is amassing future picks and loading up for a Year-2 title run in your league, then it’s even easier. Focus primarily on the younger RBs who fall throughout the draft. However, don’t overlook even the older RBs who are falling well past ADP if you think they can remain productive in the coming year. During the season, productive running backs are valuable assets. They’re easy to flip for picks or younger players that fit your long-range plan better.
Conclusion
Dynasty valuations are more volatile than ever as owners react to the ever-shifting landscape of the NFL. Remember, we know far less than we think we do as we head into each new NFL season. We want to position our rosters to benefit from that chaos. It’s far better to think in terms of finding cheaper arbitrage versions of desirable dynasty assets by visualizing what player values might look like at this time next year in the dynasty game.
Along with that, remember that liquidity in the form of future picks can be deployed anytime you need it. There’s no need to burn it all up in your startup. All that does is make your team more fragile and less agile. If you remember the tenets of the Dynasty Startup Strategy outlined above, you can best position your team for future success.
For more articles from PlayerProfiler, check out the fantasy home page – NFL Fantasy | PlayerProfiler – Fantasy Football News & Media
Follow @OverhypedSleepr
