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To be a potential breakout running back, we need a bell cow profile. This way, if an injury to the number one back occurs, our guy will get the majority of the workload rather than just increases in rushing-only, or passing-only, situations.

Late drafted running backs like Dexter Williams and Ty Johnson, sixth rounders, have profiles and opportunity signaling three down back potential in the NFL. Make these backs your late second and third round rookie picks in dynasty leagues.

T.Y. Hilton and A.J. Green are solid candidates in the third-round of drafts. Available as late as the end of the third round in 10-team leagues, these players give drafters a chance to take advantage of the aging-player discount.

Considering the Bengals threw the ball a modest 36.2 times per-game in 2018 (No. 20), A.J. Green is primed for a big season as the focal point of an offense with an improved philosophy.

No one needs to be told that Julio Jones is good at football. And yet, after leading the league in targets and receiving yards, Jones’ ADP went down as compared to 2018. He also had a fantastic average target distance to support that elite volume production.

Adam Humphries ranked a respectable No. 30 in fantasy points per game last year, yet is being drafted at 174.94 in FFPC ADP. Coaches in Tennessee have told reporters that Humphries is going to be a featured weapon. At first glance, one could see upside in selecting him with a mid-round pick. That is conjecture and narrative.

Parris Campbell looks the part of a versatile NFL playmaker. Hakeem Butler looks like a poor man’s Jon Baldwin.

D.K. Metcalf looks like an NFL one-hit-wonder. Andy Isabella needs to be a day-2 draft pick to be assured of an NFL breakout.

The lesson to be learned here is among the buy-low candidates each year look for draft capital, high college production, and feature size. If you have a bust on your hands or you are debating trading for one, look at those three things first.

This time of year we are inundated with what seem like 1000’s of buy-low articles or tweets. This lead me down a bit of a rabbit hole and I have a whole bunch of ADP data that tells some interesting tales. 

Does Kelvin Harmon want to play with Russell Wilson in Seattle? Does Harmon believe A.J. Brown is an impressive alpha receiver?

How did Harmon develop such deep rapport with Ryan Finley? Harmon has been scouting NFL cornerbacks closely this offseason.

Tyree Jackson is a sleeper QBs in this draft class. Josh Jacobs looks the part of an elite NFL running back.

Dexter Williams is big, young and productive. What if the Kansas City Chiefs draft Bryce Love?

Daniel Jones is a surefire bust. Will Grier is a top-3 quarterback prospect.

Ryquell Armstead is a top sleeper RB prospect. Miles Sanders is best comparable to Melvin Gordon.

Early best ball drafts are filled with incredible values in the late-rounds. Is Duke Johnson considered a value based solely on his remarkable career efficiency? Maybe, but a potential trade could send his value soaring.

With above average athleticism and impressive college production, Washington is thrusting Trey Quinn into the starting slot-receiver role after being banged up and sitting behind Jamison Crowder for his rookie campaign.

Kelvin Harmon has feature size, but where does he win? Why Alexander Mattison’s Burst Score is a red herring metric.

Darwin Thompson, Nico Evans, Jalin Moore, and Damarea Crockett are intriguing under-the-radar running backs. T.J. Hockenson is clearly the best all-around tight end in the NFL Draft, sorry Noah Fant.