Dynasty Leagues

It’s tough to understate the impressive nature of Terrace Marshall’s college production metrics, especially when put in the proper context. His 16.6-percent (23rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Target Share would be much higher had he played more than seven games this past season. We also can’t ignore that 2020 saw him record more targets, receptions, receiving yards, and yards per reception than in 2019, and in five fewer games played.

Rondale Moore’s height is far from ideal. The nature of his physical makeup will make him a supreme outlier if successful at the NFL level. His 9.4 College YPR landing in the 1st-percentile is jarring. But recording upper 90th-percentile marks in 40-yard Dash, Burst Score and Agility Score creates cause for optimism. Those marks help contribute to his 10.13 (72nd-percentile) Catch Radius, which is a freakish mark given his diminutive build.

Every WR is disappointing except Elijah Moore and Terrace Marshall. Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle are hiding

Nico Collins exceeded expectations. Nate’s is not sold on Top Shot yet.

Kenny Golladay went on a rampage during the 2019 season, leading all qualified wide receivers with 11 Total Touchdowns and totaling 1,190 (No. 6) Receiving Yards. Should fantasy gamers expect a year similar to 2019 on a new team and coming off of an injury? Probably not, but he’ll have a damn good year and a chance to build on it in 2022. That’s what makes this the perfect time to acquire him; his value won’t be this low again for a long while.

During the 2020 season, Daniel Jones receiver’s ranked in the bottom of the league in Target Separation and totaled 55 (No. 14) Dropped Passes. Despite that, he put up a respectable 73.7-percent (No. 21) True Completion Percentage. A bonafide No. 1 wideout is exactly what he needs. It’s critical for Jones to play well this year, and Golladay’s addition is a gift that should help the young quarterback achieve that goal.

Every season features players who out-produce their ADP, revealing the fade to be fraudulent. Stefon Diggs and David Montgomery are prime examples from 2020 of players shunned by many. As everything in fantasy football, context matters. Sometimes it’s better to simply embrace the fade. 

Though he only managed a 30.9-percent (No. 86 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share last season, Anthony Firkser did flash potential in Week 6, exploding for a receiving line of 8-113-1 against the Texans. This was a performance that earned him the TE1 crown on the week. Firkser gains 7.90 Lifetime Value points, moving up to TE27. Go check the waiver wire for him if in need of help at tight end.

Deshaun Watson has been a consistent fantasy producer. He finished 2020 averaging 23.3 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Game, and averaged 21.2 (No. 2) FFPG in 2019. Fantasy gamers were hoping for a change of scenery this offseason, not a scandal. Rostering or acquiring him in fantasy football now comes with risk. The former Heisman Trophy nominee loses 17.54 Lifetime Value points, putting him on the verge of falling out of the top 10 QBs in dynasty.

Denzel Mims has great metrics: a 115.6 (96th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Speed Score, 42.3-percent (85th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, 131.0 (90th-percentile) Burst Score and 10.34 (95th-percentile) Catch Radius. New OC Mike Lafleur’s West Coast offense should feature Mims and Corey Davis on the outside with Jamison Crowder or Keelan Cole in the slot. Mims earned five targets and 40 yards per game as a rookie, and is in the sweet spot for year 2 breakouts.

The “third year breakout” is looking more and more like a myth every year. It’s not impossible to find one. It’s just a long shot. To improve your odds, use the Dynasty Deluxe rankings and take a couple flyers – especially those that have missed time early but have tremendous profiles. Churn them though if they don’t flash right away. No need to keep pyrite on the roster. Guys with high-quality profiles that fit this description include Deebo Samuel and Parris Campbell.

The Running Back Doesn’t Matter philosophy stipulates RB production does not necessarily equate to talent, making the position replaceable. Investing significant capital in a top back who vanishes from utility is catastrophic to a dynasty team. Thus, RBDM proponents should run away from mediocre rushers who succeeded due to sheer volume. The few safe havens set to produce at an elite level for years to come should be coveted.

Running back talent has surged recently. The 2017 and 2020 draft classes gave rise to an RB renaissance. It’s on dynasty leaguers to make shrewd decisions on which current RB1s and emerging talents to place their chips on moving forward. I would target Miles Sanders or Antonio Gibson in trades for Josh Jacobs, and would sell David Montgomery in exchange for A.J. Dillon and a draft pick.

A sneaky little way to add talented players that are off of others’ radars are by adding them to a trade as “throw-ins.” Sure, everyone loves Darren Waller now, but it wasn’t until his age 27 season that he became a name to know. Hell, some might not even remember he was drafted by Baltimore. Yet, after years of no production he suddenly bloomed and put himself in the upper echelon of tight ends. Imagine how many Waller truthers got him as a throw-in.

When it comes to the tight end position, there are several players to keep an eye on. However, Carolina’s Ian Thomas should be at the top of everyone’s list. Yes, we were high on him last offseason and his 2020 was rather quiet. However, he’ll be 25 when the new year starts and in his second season with coach Matt Rhule and his system. With a quarterback upgrade likely coming, as well as vacated targets should Curtis Samuel leave, Thomas is setup for success.

Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims are alphas in waiting, sorry Henry Ruggs. Jalen Hurts is like a more accurate Josh Allen.

Jalen Reagor would be helped by Ja’Marr Chase like Jerry Jeudy will be helped by Courtland Sutton. Trevor Lawrence is the 1.01 in superflex and 2-QB but you don’t actually want to use that pick.

With Zach Ertz likely out in Philadelphia and Jalen Hurts taking over the reigns at QB, Dallas Goedert has an appealing ceiling. Last season, he posted a +9.1 (No. 6 among qualified tight ends) Production Premium and a +14.7-percent (No. 6) Target Premium. This is a highly efficient player on a team with an abundance of vacated targets and a potential upgrade at quarterback. He’s the perfect type of tight end to target in the middle rounds.

A great example of a player that needs to be targeted in upcoming startup drafts is Rams running back Cam Akers. The Rams showed late last season that they are ready to let the second-rounder roll. With Malcolm Brown likely gone, Akers has only Darrell Henderson to compete with. Add in an upgrade at quarterback, and the second-year back is primed for a big 2021. Oh yeah, he’ll be a youthful 22 years old when the season begins.