Dynasty Leagues

With Trey Sermon inactive and Raheem Mostert suffering a knee injury, Elijah Mitchell saw an 82.6-percent Opportunity Share. He produced a True Yards Per Carry Rate of 4.9 (No. 13 among qualified RBs) with 7 (No. 4) Evaded Tackles and a 36.8-percent (No. 5) Juke Rate. It’s fully expected that the 49ers will involve multiple RBs. However, Mitchell is the elite athlete of the group on a team that’s likely to face plenty of positive Game Script.

Those who tuned into NFL Top-10 (plus) Takeaways already know that The Podfather is worried about Tua Tagovailoa. Miami inched by the Patriots 17-16, but Tua was anything but sharp. Looking past the box score we find 4 (No. 3) Danger Plays and 4 (No. 4) Interceptable Passes. Tagovailoa had an abysmal 37.3 (No. 31) True Passer Rating and a 7.0 (No. 24) Accuracy Rating. He loses 10.23 Lifetime Value points and lands outside of the Top 20 QBs in our dynasty rankings.

When pairing Elijah Moore’s athleticism with his draft capital and production, Tyler Lockett and Emmanuel Sanders are perfect players to look for his floor and ceiling. Moore has shown in college he can be a target hog. His junior season in 2020 saw him lead the FBS with 10.8 receptions and 149.1 receiving yards per game. His floor is fringe WR3 playing primarily outside and his ceiling is high-end WR2 as a PPR monster in the slot.

Size? Check. Early breakout? Check. Draft capital? Check. Terrace Marshall checks all of the boxes that we look for at PlayerProfiler. He has the widest range of outcomes in the 2021 wide receiver class. Is it unfathomable for another LSU receiver to force D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson to eventually take back seats? Marshall’s floor is WR4 and his ceiling is he becomes the captain and produces top-five fantasy seasons.

Ja’Marr Chase broke out during his sophomore season with a 19.5 (77th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age. This mirrors Odell Beckham’s 19.8 (68th-percentile) BOA. Beckham put together back-to-back top-five WR seasons in PPR during the 2015-16 seasons. Target competition is a valid concern for Chase that Beckham did not face during his ascension. A takeaway from Chase’s 2019 collegiate season, though, is that he has the talent to maximize his targets. Chase’s ceiling is multiple top-5 PPR seasons and his floor is a touchdown-dependent WR2.

Devonta Smith must be the outlier of outliers to succeed at the NFL. At 6-0 and 170-pounds, the concern with Smith is BMI. We don’t have any players in the database anywhere close to Smith’s size. His Best Comparable Player, Joe Horn, had 30 pounds on him. Does this make Smith a bad prospect? Absolutely not. The goal with analytics is to find ways to limit mistakes. Simply put, we have not seen players with his analytical profile succeed in the NFL. Therefore, it’s impossible to take anything away from his Best Comparable Player comps.

Of all of the Day 2 running backs drafted by teams that traded up since 2011, Javonte Williams was the highest-drafted running back (Pick No. 35). And he’s in excellent company. The sweet spot for NFL Draft trade-up running backs is the top half of the second round. If you had doubts about Williams because he’s currently in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon, remember that Alvin Kamara had to split time with Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson in his electric rookie season.

The 49ers trading up for Trey Sermon should mean they plan to utilize him at least in a part-time role. Three of the five running backs (60-percent) drafted in the bottom half of the third round by teams that traded up saw at least 115 touches. For comparison, only four of the other 10 running backs (40-percent) drafted in the bottom half of the third round exceeded that mark. Sermon joins an elusive club of third-round running backs that teams traded back INTO the third round to acquire.

Brandon Aiyuk flashed high-end upside when he was on the field. He was elite on a per game basis, and his opportunity metrics legitimize that production. His athleticism, versatility, and belonging to a Kyle Shanahan offense all raise his floor and ceiling. However, there are unknowns surrounding him. Trey Lance’s immaturity as a passer, and how Aiyuk performs alongside a healthy George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, will be what decides his value for the next five years.

Tee Higgins is a supremely talented, young, traditional wide receiver who is attached to a great quarterback. With a crowded receiver room, Higgins’ value will be defined by how many targets he receives relative to Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase. Regardless, at worst, he will be the second option on a fantastic offense and be productive in that role. But he also has perennial top-12 upside.

2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence became the fourth-ever first-round quarterback to have a Peyton Manning Best Comparable Player comp. He’s only the second quarterback in the database with Manning has his No. 1 comparison. Lawrence has two former No. 1 overall picks in his five Best Comparable Player comps, while the other three quarterbacks are non-first round quarterbacks. The ceiling is top-5 fantasy quarterback that leads NFL in passing yards and touchdowns. His floor is a low-QB2 that becomes a fantasy football non-factor. 

Justin Fields’ Best Comparable Player comps are interesting because despite running a 4.51 (99th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks) 40-Yard Dash, Robert Griffin is the only mobile quarterback in his comps. He has the requisite speed, but his college rushing production didn’t match his athletic measurements. Fields’ ceiling is a league-winning dual-threat quarterback in fantasy leagues and his floor is he’s an inconsistent QB2 in fantasy leagues held back by his passing limitations and decision-making; a pseudo-Scott Fish Bowl cheat code quarterback.

Hands down, Zach Wilson has the most electric and dynamic list of Best Comparable Players at the quarterback position. He also has the widest range of outcomes in this rookie quarterback class. Ultimately, Wilson reaching his ceiling comes down to if his rushing ability translates to the NFL level. His ceiling is low-end QB1, and his floor is that the New York Jets’ triennial search for a franchise quarterback continues.

In 30 college games, Mac Jones finished with 42 rushing yards on 54 attempts, curbing his fantasy football upside. When compared to the only two first-round quarterbacks in his Best Comparable Players list, Jones isn’t close to their level on the ground. His ceiling is mid-QB2 in fantasy leagues, and his floor is he’s given a Chicago overcoat and sinks to the bottom of waiver wires in non-Superflex leagues.

An early lesson learned back in my minion days as a lurker on the PlayerProfiler website was not to overvalue a player’s Best Comparable Players. One look at Travis Etienne’s comps, however, shows why he is the No. 1 running back in the 2021 rookie class. All five of his Best Comparable Players have had at least one season with 200 carries. Taking carries from James Robinson is the hurdle for Etienne to secure a mid-RB2 floor with top five upside.

Measuring at 6-1 and 232-pounds, Najee Harris has the adequate size to be a bell-cow running back in the NFL. On the other hand, his glaring lack of Pro Day workout metrics was concerning for dynasty managers in rookie drafts. If Joe Mixon and Leonard Fournette’s backend-RB1 seasons are Harris’ ceiling, then James Conner’s backend RB2 seasons in 2019 and 2020 represent his floor.

In a SuperFlex league, it’s likely impossible to acquire one of the top options or young guns. Kirk Cousins is a hidden value QB2, currently being drafted at QB24 per startup ADP. The volatility may scare some, but not every quarterback can put up great numbers in half their games with top five fantasy upside. While he does have a bit of unpredictability to his weekly performances, he has high-ceiling upside, a stable situation, and an elite arsenal of weapons around him.

No wide receiver will have a better rookie season than Jerry Jeudy and be this inexpensive again. He’s currently the WR25 per startup ADP. If he maintains his efficiency, fixes a few drops, and his quarterback performs better in getting him the ball, he can easily be a 1,100-plus yard receiver with a handful of touchdowns to go with it. This is the most inexpensive he will ever be. Buy while you can.

Jonathan Taylor is poised to be a top fantasy RB in his second year for the Colts after taking off in the second half of his rookie season. He became the team’s offensive focal point with 15-plus fantasy points in each game from Weeks 11-17. He fits the Colts’ gashing offensive identity, is only 22 years old, and ranks favorably in almost every workout metric, college production statistic, or intangible data point.
 
With Jared Goff last season, Cooper Kupp saw 125 (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) targets and played 443 (No. 11) slot snaps. This season, he goes from Goff’s 7.3 (No. 22) Accuracy Rating and 58.5 (No. 23) Total QBR to Matthew Stafford’s 7.5 (No. 11) Accuracy Rating and 68.8 (No. 15) Total QBR. With an upgrade at QB, Kupp will see higher quality targets and will make noise as a larger slot receiver.