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Wide Receiver vs. Cornerback Matchups to Target: Week 11

Deebo Samuel caught fire last week with a career performance against Seattle. Logging eight receptions on 11 targets for 112 receiving yards, Samuel had his best day as a pro in the NFL. With Emmanuel Sanders hobbled and George Kittle sidelined, Samuel’s matchup with Byron Murphy is arguably the best play in Week 11.

Michael Thomas’ 103 (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers) targets have yielded 86 (No. 1) receptions for 1,027 (No. 1) receiving yards and four (No. 71) touchdowns. Averaging 23.5 (No. 1) Fantasy Points Per Game, Thomas has been among the only constants in fantasy football in 2019. This week, he’s poised to feast on Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis.

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The Long Gain: Bargain Running Backs to Target in Week 11

Last week, the Chiefs allowed Derrick Henry to run for 191 yards and two touchdowns, good for the RB1 finish. It’s safe to expect similar results from Melvin Gordon in Week 11. He has seen over 20 touches per game over the last two weeks and appears to have reclaimed the bellcow role in Los Angeles. Fire him up in Week 11 lineups and watch the cash flow in.

Was there anything more predictable than seeing an article touting Brian Hill in Week 11 on PlayerProfiler? Despite being on a
team that’s last in the league in rush attempts, he should see plenty of run against a Carolina defense that allows +6.43 points above the mean to opposing running backs.

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DraftKings Value Plays and GPP Targets for Week 11

Now priced as DraftKings’ most expensive quarterback, Lamar Jackson brings a ceiling unlike any other quarterback in the NFL. Looking at rushing numbers alone, he ranks 11th in the NFL with 702 rushing yards. Averaging 14 rush attempts per game in his last four contests, this usage on the ground gives him a massive floor/ceiling combo for DFS.

While the Falcons remain 4.5-point road underdogs in Week 11, Brian Hill draws a fantastic matchup against Carolina’s poor run defense. So far this season, the Panthers allow 136.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL. Projected to handle a full workload here, Hill remains a sharp value play on the Week 11 slate.

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D.J. Moore And The Lock Button Plays For Week 11

D.J. Moore has averaged 10 targets per game over his last four, reaching 100 yards in each of the last two. Moore is top-10 in targets, receptions and yards after the catch. He has the lowest touchdown rate of any receiver with at least 600 yards, but this week he should torch a Falcons secondary that has allowed 12 wide receiver touchdowns in nine games.

Josh Jacobs has finished as a top-12 running back in four of his last five games. He carried the ball at least 15 times in all five of those contests, including three where he topped 20 attempts. Jacobs should easily reach that number again in Week 11 with the Raiders being 10.5-point favorites at home against the Bengals.

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Cheap DFS Lineup Makers for Week 11

The cash game lock button play of the week is Falcons running back Brian Hill. With an above-average Speed Score, Burst Score and Agility Score, Hill has the makings of a solid three-down workhorse against the Carolina Panthers. A sub-$6000 running back set up for 20-plus touches without Devonta Freeman, Hill will be the chalk in DFS this week.

Deebo Samuel is a versatile athlete possessing a 118.5 (85th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) SPARQ-x score. He’s capable of utilizing his athleticism all over the field, as he was a force as a receiver, rusher and returner at South Carolina. Kyle Shanahan should continue manufacturing touches for his dynamic rookie, especially with the 49ers being down their top two weapons.

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Leveraging the NFL’s most volatile players for fantasy football in Week 11

After an ankle injury sidelined him from Weeks 3-9, Tre’Quan Smith returned in Week 10 to a robust 89.5-percent Snap Share. That’s encouraging due to his tendency to boom or bust. He only needs one splash play to make a week, but he also needs to be on the field to do it.

While it’s a one-game sample size, his usage signals his place above Ted Ginn in the Saints’ pecking order. That’s huge for his rest-of-season potential with Drew Brees back under center. In the six games where Smith played more than 70-percent of the snaps in 2018, he averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game and posted two top-five finishes.

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3 Scorching Hot DFS Takes: Week 11

Oakland has allowed their opponents to average 8.1 yards per attempt, third-worst in the league. Tyler Boyd has been getting the volume all year, the Bengals offense has just prevented him from making the most of it. Expect that to turn around in a major way this week.

Josh Jacobs should have no problem tearing apart this Bengals defense, he’s been surprisingly efficient through the first half of his rookie campaign. He’s top-10 in Yards Created (312) Breakaway Runs (10) and Evaded Tackles (52). This week, the Raiders quietly own the highest implied team total of any team on the slate at 29.5.

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Stay or Go: Who to hold and who to drop for Week 11

Kyle Rudolph owns a robust 87.1-percent (No. 7 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share and has at least five targets in three of his last four games. All signs point to him maintaining this run heading into the fantasy playoffs. He has the trust of his quarterback in the red zone, and touchdowns are key in fantasy.

A real problem for Baker Mayfield is what happens when the Browns hit the red zone, specifically his 40.0-percent (No. 45) Red Zone Completion Percentage. While he might have the occasional game or two with a decent amount of fantasy points, he cannot be trusted and is better left alone as a desperation option.

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Fantasy Football Trends to Watch – Week 11 Edition

One of fantasy football’s biggest busts to open the season, O.J. Howard finally made an appearance in the box score on Sunday. In a dream matchup against the Cardinals, Howard recorded four catches for 47 yards and a score. More importantly, he played 100-percent of Arizona’s snaps for the first time this season and ran a route on 85-percent of Jameis Winston’s dropbacks.

Returning from a multi-week suspension, Kareem Hunt immediately stepped into a prominent role in Cleveland’s offense in Week 10. While this makes for one of the best backfields in football, it creates a headache for fantasy owners. With the Browns sitting at 3-6, Hunt’s involvement could vary based on game script.

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Drew Brees and Other Week 10 Fantasy Busts

Uncharacteristically, the Falcons sacked Drew Brees six times and held him to 287 scoreless yards. It is good to note that he still managed almost 300 yards, a 71.1-percent completion percentage and zero interceptions in his poor game. Though he’s only played four games in 2019, the advanced metrics show he can still be trusted.

Two weeks in a row! Even without Adam Thielen in the lineup, Stefon Diggs failed to produce again. Unfortunately for Diggs, Dalvin Cook ate up seven targets and Kyle Rudolph vultured two touchdowns. More than that, his 12.1 (No. 8 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility is becoming a nuisance.