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Betting the Spread: NFL Week 4 – Turning the Corner

by Shervon Fakhimi, October 1, 2022

Dalvin Cook sustained yet another injury to his shoulder that has bothered him for years. Backup Alexander Mattison has risen to the occasion in Cook’s absence in the last three seasons. In the five full games Cook has missed since 2020, Mattison has averaged 21.4 carries, 90.2 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game while adding five targets per game and 0.4 touchdowns through the air. The Saints’ run defense has not been as stout this season as we’ve been accustomed to them being. They stifled Leonard Fournette (24 carries-65 yards), but Cordarrelle Patterson (22 carries-120 yards-1 touchdown) and Christian McCaffrey (25 carries-108 yards) had their share of success. The Saints’ defense skews closer to the Tampa matchup than the other two, but we’ll see. Mattison is a fine RB2 this week if Dalvin misses.

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Week 4 WR-CB Matchups: Playing Terry is Scary

by Aaron Stewart, September 30, 2022

It’s not only the cornerback matchup that is a problem for Marquise Brown; the Panthers have a good pass defense. Only two defenses have been targeted more than Carolina AND allowed fewer passing yards. Terry McLaurin’s Target Share is 16.5-percent (No. 56). McLaurin’s Target Share has NEVER been below 23.0-percent in his career. Nico Collins’15.5-percent (No. 60) Target Share is lower than one would want to see for a dart throw, but Collins does have a nine-target game this season where he exceeded 120 Air Yards.

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The Pace of Play Report: Week 3

by Neil Dutton, September 29, 2022

Back once again like a renegade master, I have returned to cast my eyes over the speed at which NFL offenses are currently operating. It’s time once again for the Pace of Play report. The Pace of Play is a metric that fantasy managers in all formats should be aware of. You see, we need players to make plays in order to score fantasy points. The more plays a team runs, the more chances for fantasy points there are. It’s yet another useful tool to help us in making lineup choices and propel us to a title or a big DFS win. The possibilities are almost endless.

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Week 4 TNF Showdown: Dolphins at Bengals

by Matt Babich, September 29, 2022

Buffalo’s lethal defense brought Tua Tagovailoa back to earth following his show-stopping Week 2 performance, limiting the Dolphins to 186 passing yards on 18 attempts. His output should have been far worse. It looked as if he would not return from the gruesome head injury he suffered late in the second quarter. The Bengals defense offers quite the exploitable matchup as they have struggled to slow down inferior offenses in three straight weeks. Tua is proving to be one of the most accurate passers in the league, and will be a top-12 option tonight.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 4

by Edward DeLauter, September 28, 2022

Amari Cooper is looking like his old self again. After being out targeted by Donovan Peoples-Jones 11 to 6 in week one, Cooper has regained his anticipated stranglehold on the Browns passing attack. Cooper has seen double digit targets, and over 120 Air Yards each of the past two weeks.  Look for Cooper to continue his dominance this week against Falcons.

Marvin Jones continues to pace the Jaguars in Air Yards. While he has been outscored in fantasy points by both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, Marvin Jones remains the Jaguars preferred downfield target with an average target distance of 14.3 yards. If Trevor Lawrence is forced to air it out with the Jaguars going against an explosive Eagles offense, look for him to try to find Marvin Jones for a long touchdown.

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2022 Matchup Monitor Week 4

by Aditya Fuldeore, September 28, 2022

Baltimore will have its hands full containing Stefon Diggs, opening up Davis. Davis had a 100-percent Route Participation and 98.3-percent Snap Share in Week 1, operating at full speed in the Buffalo offense. Coming off injury, he saw similar usage in Week 3. With Davis being a WR2 in a high-powered offense with opportunity, expect a bigger game than usual from him facing a struggling secondary

The Eagles have not allowed 100 yards rushing each of their last two games, with D’Andre Swift the sole 100-yard rushing opponent in Week 1. Philadelphia has tended to lead big in games, leading to a pass-heavy opponent Game Script. Robinson was closer to a 50/50 Snap Share split with Etienne in a close Week 1 game, while he had more snaps in Week 2 and 3 blowouts. Expect a soaring Eagles team to be competitive against Jacksonville, leading to more Etienne passing-down snaps.

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The Hitchhiker’s Guide to RB Week 4: Chicago Fire

by Jakob Sanderson, September 27, 2022

Welcome in to the Week 4 edition of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to RB! This is the place where we talk all things running back streaming. Each week we discuss running back usage, matchups, and waiver opportunities to convert the least amount of capital into a playable running back position on your fantasy teams.

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Lessons Learned: Week 3 Buying Low and Paying Up

by Al Scherer, September 27, 2022

Unfortunately, Pittsburgh Mitch has looked too much like Chicago Mitch. Heading into Week 3, he was putting up 5.1 (No. 33) Yards Per Attempt and a -11.8 (No. 40) Expected Points Added. On Thursday, he threw for 204 yards against the Browns. This was less than Cleveland had given up to both Joe Flacco and Baker Mayfield in Weeks 1 and 2. With the Steelers now 1-2, and near the bottom of all offensive categories, those of us that drafted Pickett should get excited, right?

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Betting the NFL Spread Week 3: How the Bad Luck Turns

by Shervon Fakhimi, September 24, 2022

Raise your hand if you have as many receptions this NFL season as Cole Kmet! Also, raise your hand if you had just as many receiving yards as Darnell Mooney last week. Congratulations! For reasons I’m unaware of, the Bears coaching staff has decided to abandon the notion of throwing the ball. Why? I don’t know. The Bears have thrown the ball 28 times through two games which is easily the lowest in the NFL.

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Week 3 WR-CB Matchups: Start DK? You Must Be JK!

by Aaron Stewart, September 23, 2022

D.K. Metcalf is still top-30 in Target Share and Snap Share this season, but the Geno Smith-led Seahawks offense isn’t utilizing Metcalf optimally. Shepard is top-20 in Target Share and Air Yards Share. On top of that, he’s No. 33 in Yards Per Route Run. He currently leads the NFL in Target Separation Vs. Man and is the undisputed top option in the Giants’ passing offense.

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