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Analytics & Advanced Metrics

Lessons Learned – Week 13

by Al Scherer, December 7, 2021

Elijah Mitchell has been a great story in 2021. Congrats if you found him… (no, I made the mistake of drafting Trey Sermon!) During the upcoming offseason, though, quietly see what you might get in return. His price may never be higher. Don’t start any Bears other than David Montgomery. The new coaching staff and GM in 2022 will have to try to build around him and Justin Fields.

Javonte Williams will be an RB1 in 2022. But don’t feel too bad if you missed Williams but have Clyde Edwards-Helaire instead. He won’t see the same volume but, barring injury, will see enough action to be a reliable RB2. Don’t worry about Jalen Hurts. When his ankle heals, he’s Philadelphia’s starter.

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Lessons Learned – Week 12

by Al Scherer, November 29, 2021

The Cowboys will only go as far as Dak Prescott takes them. Fortunately, most of their remaining schedule is against the NFC East – pass funnels all and all mostly just bad defenses. Expect Dallas to throw, throw and throw. Even though Tony Pollard would get more playing time if the Cowboys choose to rest Ezekiel Elliott, we must focus on Dak and the Cowboys receivers the rest of the way.

The once-vaunted Steel Curtain defense hasn’t been any good, giving up 41 points per game and over 900 yards combined in their last two losses. They’re now in last place. And there are no more Bears, Lions or Geno Smith-led Seahawks on the horizon. No Steelers are Must-Starts the rest of 2021. In the upcoming off-season, move any or all Steelers from your dynasty rosters. It’s going to take more than one piece to complete this Pittsburgh puzzle.

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Lessons Learned – Week 11

by Al Scherer, November 22, 2021

If you think back to training camp, a different Elijah was the talk of the NFL town. It was the Jets’ Elijah Moore, with one of the most impressive college metrics profiles you’ll find; Start him every week. It doesn’t matter who’s at QB or if the Jets lose out. He’s the team’s best receiver and will someday be their first Pro Bowl receiver this century.

Enjoy watching this generation’s most complete, exciting running back. I hope you followed PlayerProfiler and Breakout Finder’s Advice and selected Jonathan Taylor at 1.01 in last year’s dynasty rookie drafts. If you followed the herd and went Clyde Edwards-Helaire instead, don’t say we didn’t warn you!

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Week 10 – AFC Game Analyst News and Notes

by Cody Carpentier, November 17, 2021

This new season-long mini-series is brought to you by the RotoUnderworld Game Analyst Team. The Game Analyst Team consists of over 75 individuals that chart and re-watch every snap from every game in the NFL between game end, and Monday afternoon.

In the coming weeks, it will be interesting to see how the Dolphins will respond to a fairly easy schedule. In the next 4 game stretch, the Dolphins play the Jets twice, the Giants, and the Panthers. All 4 are very winnable games. Could the Dolphins be 7-7 heading into Monday Night Football against the Saints on Dec 27th? How will Flores handle the QB situation since he doesn’t seem to have supreme confidence in Tua? Will pass-catchers like Wilson and Ford consistently step up or will it continue to be the Jaylen Waddle show? As stated previously, it will be an interesting next few weeks for the Miami Dolphins.

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Lessons Learned – Week 10

by Al Scherer, November 15, 2021

Tua Tagovailoa is improving – though his season-long Passer Rating is only 87.3, he’s been at least 95.1 in 3 of his last 4 games and has some great matchups coming up. Jaylen Waddle quietly leads the league in Routes Run and is top-12 in Targets, Receptions, True Catch Rate, and Yards After Catch. And he’s catching 70-percent of his targets. The Dolphins DST is worth a flyer. DST scoring is about turnovers. Miami is starting to create them again and won’t face another high-scoring team the rest of the year.

On a team with no quarterback and no receivers, D’Andre Swift managed to put up 130 rushing yards against the Steelers. As a team, they did manage to put up 229 yards rushing and two scores. Heading into today’s game, he led the league in Target Share, Receptions, and was No. 2 in Receiving Yards. He is No. 3 in Yards Created. He’s a star but, because of his team, get less attention than he deserves. In dynasty, overpay if doing so can get Swift onto your team. Offload any and all parts of this Steelers passing game.

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Week 9 – NFC Game Analyst News and Notes

by Cody Carpentier, November 10, 2021

This new season-long mini-series is brought to you by the RotoUnderworld Game Analyst Team. The Game Analyst Team consists of over 75 individuals that chart and re-watch every snap from every game in the NFL between game end, and Monday afternoon.

Philly changed gameplay by relying heavily on run plays overpassing. Throughout the 2021 season, Philly has passed on 53.9% of offensive plays, which is 26th in the NFL. In Week 9, the Eagles were dead last at 31.6%.

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Lessons Learned – Week 9

by Al Scherer, November 8, 2021

The Cardinals even have a really nice schedule coming up, including games against Seattle, a beaten-down Bears team, the Rams (not what they used to be vs the run) and Detroit. Whether Chase Edmonds’ injury is short-term or if it lasts longer, the Cardinals have confidence in James Conner, and we must too. Ride with Conner if he’s on your roster. Also consider stashing Eno Benjamin in the event Edmonds misses any time.

Ride the wave and confidently start all your Colts. Look for backup Colts for the end of your bench. If Michael Pittman is still attainable, do what you can to get him. Get Donovan Peoples-Jones now if he’s available. Don’t bother with Odell Beckham but feel free to sell quickly if he lands in an exciting location.

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Week 8 – AFC Game Analyst News and Notes

by Cody Carpentier, November 6, 2021

This new season-long mini-series is brought to you by the RotoUnderworld Game Analyst Team. The Game Analyst Team consists of over 75 individuals that chart and re-watch every snap from every game in the NFL between game end, and Monday afternoon. The guys you have generally not heard from before stop in to drop some tidbits from their weekly game charting process in hopes to give us a sneak peek into the depth of the games each Sunday.

Jonathan Taylor is blossoming into the workhorse back we’ve known him capable of, right in time for a healthy O-line to pave the way. He ran a season-high 27 routes compared to Nyheim Hines’ 16, the highest differential this season. Hines is desperately clinging to the 2-minute role, playing a pesky 31 percent of snaps. 11 of his 16 routes happened during the 2-minute drill or 4th quarter. Fire up JT with confidence as a bonafide top 5 RB rest of the season.

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Lessons Learned – Week 8

by Al Scherer, November 1, 2021

Enjoy Mike White’s performance. Don’t expect it to continue, but today showed us that in an emergency, go ahead and break the glass that is any starting NFL QB. Even in really bad matchups, when you have to take a chance, you have to take a chance.

Like the Jets, lean on Michael Carter. He fits today’s NFL. He’s agile, quick enough, and a solid pass catcher. Receiving backs will always put up stats. He has now proven himself a high-floor, high-ceiling rookie. Winning or losing, the Jets will give him the ball.

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Week 7 – NFC Game Analyst News and Notes

by Cody Carpentier, October 29, 2021

I’m stoked to see Kenny Gainwell get more touches. I think Philly is better than they have looked in the offense. So many of Hurts’ deep balls have been just too long, I think he starts to connect on a few more of those and we start seeing more production through the air. Losing Ertz and Sanders = more targets for smith, Goedert, Gainwell, Watkins, and Reagor.

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