Featured Articles

Dalvin Cook enters Week 12 with 14 total touchdowns in nine games. He has scored in all but one contest, finishing with multiple scores in 4-of-9 outings. Carolina finished No. 32 against the run in 2019, allowing 30 touchdowns to running backs. 2020 hasn’t been much better. Through 11 weeks, Carolina ranks No. 27/No. 28 in touchdowns and yards allowed to running backs. 

The Podfather’s Prop of the Week comes from Buffalo in a game with a 53-point projected game total. In 2020, Buffalo has played in six games totaling over 50 points, while Los Angeles has played in seven such games. With key defensive pieces out in Week 12, The Chargers and Bills will turn to their young gunslingers and key on the passing game to gain an edge on each other Sunday.

Now entering Week 12 as the league leader in Air Yards, Calvin Ridley is set to smash against the Raiders. Some DFS players may be shy to play him with Julio Jones expected to rejoin him in two-wide receiver sets. However, Ridley has exhibited a higher ceiling with Jones active, and has outscored the future Hall of Fame wide receiver in fantasy points 121.5 to 114.3 when both players are active.

Jerry Jeudy finds himself at the top spot on the value list for the second consecutive week. He disappointed greatly in Week 11, posting only 6.7 fantasy points against Miami’s tough secondary. More concerning though is that he only played 65.1-percent of the snaps as a result of an ankle injury. He has seen more than enough Air Yards to score plenty of fantasy points in any tough matchup, however his injury concerns add additional volatility.

Jerry Jeudy’s 6.0 (No. 74 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility mark signals a moderate degree of fantasy scoring fluctuation. However, his lack of producing a ceiling game yet directly affects that score. That, coupled with predictive Air Yards metrics, show that he makes for a compelling play this week. He also brings an affordable salary ($5,100) and low projected rostership. He offers gamers a ticking time bomb of slate-breaking upside.

What if I told you that 32.6-percent of Mike Williams’ targets came in the form of Deep Targets? His 9.9 Unrealized Air Yards per target rank No. 3 among receivers who have seen at least 30 targets this season. Even then, he averages 17.3 (No. 11) Yards per Reception. A boom-or-bust archetype, Williams has posted 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past six game and five or fewer points twice. That amounts to a 9.2 (No. 17) Weekly Volatility mark of 9.2 – bordering on extreme volatility.

Cole Beasley is fantasy football’s WR24 and you didn’t even know it. Rostered in just over 51-percent of ESPN leagues, Beasley is the No. 2 receiver for QB6 Josh Allen. John Brown won’t play this week, and this Chargers-Bills implied point total is the third-highest as well. Don’t let Beasley rot on waivers! He’s coming off his best game, a 27.9-point performance against the Jets before the team’s Week 11 bye, but he’s also totaled at least 11.0 PPR fantasy points in all but three games.

With Todd Gurley ruled out for Week 12, Brian Hill faces the Raiders in a matchup with the second-highest implied point total of the week. Adding juice to the matchup is the fact the Raiders defense fields the worst Rush DVOA thus far and allows the fourth-most fantasy points to backs. If the inefficient Gurley, offering no receiving value, can average 13.9 (No. 18 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game while creating 137.9 (No. 11) Weighted Opportunities, Hill can’t be worse.

Injuries have slowed down stud wide receiver Julio Jones and he’s now fallen outside of the Top 40 on PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings. Sadly, Jones lost 13.01 Lifetime Value points to drop seven spots to WR44, making him the biggest WR faller on the rankings. Still capable of producing big weeks, Jones has become a boom or bust option this season. He has three top 12 fantasy WR performances, but also has three weeks outside of the Top 60.

Featured as a market riser back in Week 2, Diontae Johnson’s dynasty stock would have hit WR1 levels long ago if not for a few injury hiccups. Johnson earned a season high 16 targets in Week 11 and has seen over 10 targets in every game that he hasn’t been hampered by injury. Johnson gained 26.14 Lifetime Value points and moved up eight spots to WR18, making him the biggest riser on the dynasty rankings.

With Todd Gurley officially ruled out with a knee injury, we get a cash game lock in the form of Falcons RB Brian Hill. Las Vegas has allowed the second-most rushing TDs to RBs this season, including three last week to Kansas City’s RB duo. They also rank No. 32 in Defensive Rushing DVOA, meaning Hill should have an efficient day to pair with his monster touchdown equity. This matchup also has a solid 53-point total, meaning finding exposure to it will be crucial this week.

Kyle Rudolph is the ideal punt play this week for cash lineups. With Irv Smith listed as doubtful, Rudolph should play every snap and will run more routes than his usual 17.6 per game. Adam Thielen is also out with COVID this week, so Rudolph should see a few extra shots without Thielen’s 7.6 looks per game. He’s just barely above the min-price on both sites, so he’s in play on both DK and FD.

Last season, Aaron Jones ended up as one of the league’s most efficient running backs with a +29.7 (No. 7 among qualified running backs) Production Premium. This year, Jones ranks No. 13 with 5.5 Yards per Touch and No. 11 with a +25.0 Production Premium, meaning he’s extremely efficient with the opportunities given. Since he ranks highly in Weighted Opportunities, targets, receptions, and receiving yards, it provides optimism moving forward.

With so many opportunities, we hoped that David Montgomery would be better in terms of efficiency. He has a 72.2-percent (No. 7) Snap Share, 69.1-percent (No. 10) Opportunity Share, and 143.0 (No. 10) Weighted Opportunities. With the high volume, we expect his production to improve. However, Montgomery hasn’t displayed productivity OR efficiency to this point in the year. When we consider the struggles and injuries at quarterback, it provides more reasons for concern.

This year, Chase Edmonds is top-10 among qualified running backs in Breakaway Run Rate, Yards per Touch, and Production Premium. Because he is so efficient on a regular basis, Edmonds has been an RB2 in five of eight weeks that Kenyan Drake was active for and finished. If your league still allows trading, buy Edmonds as a volatile RB2 with top-five upside if Drake gets hurt again. If your league doesn’t, keep tabs on him in case his owner decided to cut him after more healthy games from Drake.

Jarvis Landry’s struggles have been two-fold. The first is that he simply has not been efficient in any way as evidenced by his -18.0-percent (No. 95) Target Premium and -16.1 (No. 71) Production Premium. The second is that his team is trying to play football like it’s the 1960s and is passing just 29.3 times per game, No. 32 in the NFL. Players need to be either efficient or pumped up with volume to succeed as fantasy assets. Landry is neither.

Now down at $5500, Todd Gurley is officially priced at his lowest point of the season. This matchup with the Raiders is tied for the highest total on the slate at 55.5 points. The Falcons are also only 3-point underdogs and are at home, meaning Atlanta should experience neutral Game Script throughout the contest. Gurley’s $5500 price doesn’t factor in his multi-touchdown upside.

Kenyan Drake has been another shockingly game flow-dependent RB this season, though he has absolutely smashed his last two soft rushing matchups. The Cardinals are 2.5-point favorites against the Patriots and Drake averages 16.2 carries per game this season. He has a reasonable shot at 20 rush attempts in this premium matchup. Given the explosiveness he’s showcased in his good matchups this season, he is an excellent play to leverage Arizona pass game stacks.

This week against the Chiefs, Tom Brady will be forced to be prolific. Averaging 40.8 (No. 6) Team Pass Plays per Game, 50 pass attempts is squarely within the range of outcomes. The Bucs have three formidable WRs from which to choose for stacking. Our recommendation this week is Chris Godwin. This week is all about volume, and with Godwin’s 56.7-percent (No. 18 among qualified wide receivers) Slot Rate, he should be peppered with easy-to-convert targets in this projected shootout.

Deshaun Watson-Will Fuller Thanksgiving Day stacks are expensive and should be chalky. Be bold and ignore the matchup by going with Ben Roethlisberger and Chase Claypool. The Steelers have realized they don’t need a run game to beat teams anymore, so Roethlisberger is throwing a ton. Diontae Johnson is the most expensive Steelers WR, but Claypool has the most blowup potential with the elite athleticism to beat the imposing Ravens secondary.