Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 12

by Matthew M. Stevens · Upside Plays

Unlocking the potential of weekly player volatility in daily fantasy football gives gamers a competitive edge. A key metric on PlayerProfiler, Weekly Volatility measures a player’s week-to-week fantasy point scoring oscillation. This article will track the most volatile wide receivers and provide insight on when to deploy them in large-field GPPs. Using matchup and usage data combined with advanced stats to pinpoint the best plays yields the best ROI from volatile players. The focus will be on those highly volatile players with cheap salaries and low projected rostership who make screaming plays with tournament winning upside.

Jeudy Ticking Time Bomb

Despite his successful rookie campaign to date, Jerry Jeudy hasn’t produced a fantasy football ceiling game yet. But he offers gamers a ticking time bomb of slate-breaking upside, and certain advanced metrics point to a potential blowup game in Week 12.

The first-rounder out of Alabama leads the Broncos with 77 targets, which ranks No. 15 among qualified receivers. Across his past four games, Jeudy averages 10 targets per game. Four of his seven (No. 36) Red Zone Targets – and his most productive fantasy game (25.5 points) – came during that span.

Jerry Jeudy Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Jeudy’s 6.0 (No. 74) Weekly Volatility mark signals a moderate degree of fantasy scoring fluctuation. However, his lack of producing a ceiling game yet directly affects that score. That, coupled with predictive Air Yards metrics, show that he makes for a compelling play this week. He also brings an affordable salary ($5,100) and low projected rostership.

Jeudy’s 1,118 Air Yards and 19 Deep Targets both rank No. 4, yet he’s found the end zone only twice. He sees the majority of Denver’s Air Yards, earning a 32.3-percent (No. 22) share. Further, comparing his 434 (No. 20) Completed Air Yards to his 684 (No. 2) Unrealized Air Yards reveals plenty of room for a significant uptick in production given his volume.

Check out Jerry Jeudy on PlayerProfiler’s New DYNASTY DELUXE Rankings:

The Saints allow slightly less than the league average of fantasy points to opposing receivers. Jeudy draws a beatable primary matchup against Marshon Lattimore, No. 64 in PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings. Lattimore has yielded five (No. 68) TD catches this season and has a -2.5 (No. 57) Coverage Rating.

The weather in Denver looks like football weather, with forecast highs in the 40s with light wind.

Boom Week on Tap for Williams

What if I told you that 32.6-percent of Mike Williams’ targets came in the form of Deep Targets? His 9.9 Unrealized Air Yards per target rank No. 3 among receivers who have seen at least 30 targets this season. Even then, he averages 17.3 (No. 11) Yards per Reception.

Mike Williams Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Though he found the end zone in Week 11, Williams hasn’t notched a massive fantasy stat line since Week 5 (27.9 points) that ironically came against the aforementioned Marshon Lattimore. Primed to produce a similar performance, Williams offers an upside play who the majority of gamers are looking past. A boom-or-bust archetype, Williams has posted 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past six game and five or fewer points twice. That amounts to a 9.2 (No. 17) Weekly Volatility mark of 9.2 – bordering on extreme volatility.

Williams faces off against Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White, who has allowed 20-plus fantasy points in each of the past two games. He’s also yielded five (No. 68) TDs this season. It’s an exploitable matchup for Williams ($5,000), whose salary checks in at the lowest point in over a month. And with a projected total over/under of 53 points, this game offers an enticing environment to target. Further, no beastly weather is expected at Mile High Stadium, with high temps in the 50s and a moderate wind of 16 mph.