It’s about time! We put up a final card with a bunch of hits and a guest appearance of the Propcast Happy Hour for me! Cody Carpentier and I completed a 9-0 sweep of pick ‘em props highlighting a strong Week 8 for PlayerProfiler. Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s best pick ‘em player props of the week. As usual, I will review selections from the previous week. Then, I will give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value in the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match of up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.
Week 8 Review
The tough run of luck finally ended. There were no bad beats. Instead, we cashed on three out of four of our picks. Last week’s final wagers can be viewed in this article.
Week 8 Sleeper Play: Derek Carr OVER 1.5 Passing TDs, Jaylen Waddle OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards
Derek Carr and the Raiders continued to get everybody on the same page that they are frauds. Against a mediocre Saints defense, that hasn’t pressured the quarterback much this season and was without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, Carr passed for just 101 yards, threw an interception, and got shut out. Yikes.
That Carr selection ruined an immaculate read on the Dolphins’ wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Both Waddle and Hill had 100+ yard receiving days. Waddle tallied two touchdowns as well and was the fantasy WR4 on the week against a Lions team that refuses to play defense. Our strategy of attacking pass-catchers in the games with the highest Vegas scoring projections continues to find success.
Week 8 Underdog Play: Trevor Lawrence OVER 0.5 Interceptions, Jonathan Taylor UNDER 95.5 Rushing + Receiving yards
My read on the London game in Week 8 was darn near perfect. On the Propcast Happy Hour show, I briefly discussed why I thought the Broncos shouldn’t have been underdogs. It revolved around Trevor Lawrence against the Broncos’ defense that applies pressure and locks up through the air. Indeed, with Justin Simmons back in Denver’s defensive army, he picked off Lawrence in the second quarter to cash this leg. Lawrence threw two interceptions in the game.
Meanwhile, in Sam Ehlinger‘s first career NFL starter, the books overestimated Jonathan Taylor after some recent injury concerns. Underdog’s line couldn’t react quickly enough. We got a favorable line on Taylor’s total yards that ended up going under comfortably. The star running back drew only one target and caught zero passes for the first time all season. He totaled 76 yards all on the ground. Notably, Ehlinger scrambled a bit himself and recorded six carries for 15 yards. This two-legger made for an entry cash if you tailed verbatim.
- Week 7 Legs: 3-1; overall +0.50u
- YTD: 16-15-1; -1.50u
Week 9 Picks
For the first time in this article series, we will have five picks, featuring a pick-2 on Sleeper and a pick-3 on Underdog. If you are new to player prop pick ‘ems, we recommend learning about them through our beginner’s guide article. In the beginner’s article, we preview some profitable strategies and when to use insurance. Spoiler alert: we are going all-in on our three-leg Underdog play since it is strictly more profitable than taking the insurance method.
Pick No. 1 (Sleeper): Aaron Jones OVER 64.5 rushing yards
Vegas has the total points line of this game set at 49.5. The total is tied for the highest on the Week 9 Sunday slate. This means the books expect offense. It is no surprise that since the departure of Davante Adams, the No. 1 option in this Packers attack has been Aaron Jones. What’s been slightly difficult to project is how much of his involvement is split between rushing and receiving. While he has cleared this rushing number only three times this season, everything points to the value in the over in Week 9.
Jones faces a Lions defense that ranks bottom three in the NFL in pass DVOA and rush DVOA. It’s also noteworthy that Aaron Rodgers‘ pass attempts have descended in each of the last three games despite being in three consecutive losing games scripts. With wide receivers Christian Watson and Allen Lazard both questionable due to injury, we’re seeing the sharp books react appropriately by juicing this line to the over at a -140 price.
Five running backs have already cleared this number against Detroit this season. Aaron Jones is the perfect candidate to make it six with his 5.6 true yards per carry, 46 evaded tackles, and 3.91 yards created per touch. Jones ranks in the top 10 in all of these metrics amongst NFL running backs.
Pick No. 2 (Sleeper): T.J. Hockenson UNDER 34.5 receiving yards
I don’t often take player props on team debuts after the Trade Deadline, but when I do, it’s because I am getting a pick ‘em price on a prop that is juiced to -150 on sportsbooks. There’s extreme value in taking this on Sleeper for that reason alone, but there are plenty of reasons to prefer the under anyway.
While the Vikings traded for Hockensen to get an upgrade at tight end, that doesn’t mean he is immediately stealing targets from Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, or K.J. Osborn. He has gone under this number in three games this season. This includes a 26-yard performance against the Commanders’ defense he will face again in Week 9. He put up that dud despite the game being a 36-27 shootout. On the season, only two tight ends have made more than four catches against the Commanders. Hockenson has only cleared 34.5 receiving yards on four catches or fewer once this season, and he shouldn’t switch to a high-aDOT role for Minnesota right away since Jefferson, Thielen, and Osborn all already have him beat in that metric this season.
Pick No. 3 (Underdog): Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 6.5 receptions
If there’s one thing we should know by now from watching the Detroit Lions offense is that Amon-Ra St. Brown is a certified alpha and can command volume no matter what. He has at least six receptions in all four of his fully-healthy games this season and at least seven receptions in all three of his home games. With T.J. Hockensen traded to the Vikings, and Josh Reynolds downgraded to doubtful for Week 9, the passing gameplan for Detroit has to revolve around St. Brown. The books haven’t adjusted, and the “Sun God” has cleared this line easily in every single one of his career starts without Hockensen in the starting lineup.
If you’re worried about matchups with elite cornerback Jaire Alexander, it should comfort you that Stefon Diggs just logged 108 yards and a touchdown on six receptions (eight targets) against the Packers last week despite the Bills playing from ahead the entirety of the game. St. Brown also lines up in the slot on 52.0-percent of his snaps and should draw a lot of cornerback Eric Stokes, whose -10.8 coverage rating on PlayerProfiler ranks No. 78.
Amon-Ra St. Brown 5 career games without T.J. Hockensen:
☀️ 8 catches (10 targets) for 109 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 8 catches (11 targets) for 111 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 9 catches (11 targets) for 91 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 8 catches (11 targets) for 90 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 8 catches (12 targets) for 73 yards pic.twitter.com/aZAi9NoqaZ
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) November 4, 2022
As mentioned above, Vegas expects a high-scoring game since this 49.5 total line is tied for the highest on the slate, and Detroit is expected to be playing a competitive game in a negative game script. Therefore, we should fire up Amon-Ra’s overs, especially on props like this that are juiced to -130 on sportsbooks.
Pick No. 4 (Underdog): Trevor Lawrence UNDER 35.5 passing attempts
This is back-to-back weeks fading Trevor Lawrence. I’m hoping to go back to back like I’m Jordan in ‘96 and ‘97. For starters, the Jaguars have shifted their energies in the backfield to Travis Etienne recently. In the last two weeks since taking over the lead back roles, no running back has more red zone touches than him.
Updated through 8 career games (min 90 touches):
1. Adrian Peterson – 7.31
2. Bo Jackson – 7.11
3. Travis Etienne – 6.78
4. Billy Sims – 6.09
5. Saquon Barkley – 6.01
Etienne is still trending at a historic rate. https://t.co/jhSNNu48as
— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) November 3, 2022
On the season, four of the Raiders’ seven opposing quarterbacks have gone under this number, and Lawrence has gone under this number in four of his eight games. This matchup is the perfect one for Doug Pederson to look to win on the ground since the Raiders rank No. 18 in the NFL in rush DVOA and No. 25 in run-stop win rate as a defense. The Jacksonville forecast for this Sunday afternoon game features winds of 15 mph and is one of the reasons this prop is juiced to the under on sportsbooks at -160. This gives us some fantastic value in taking this leg on Underdog.
Pick No. 5 (Underdog): Jakobi Meyers OVER 53.5 receiving yards
Jakobi Meyers is the fantasy football WR12 in points per game. Now, he faces a defense that has already allowed slot receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jerry Jeudy, and Curtis Samuel to have 50-yard receiving games. This line doesn’t make much sense considering how much of a clear alpha Meyers has been this season. He has cleared the over on this line in five of his six games this season and commanded thirteen targets in two of those games. The one under came in an ugly-weather primetime game against the Bears where Bailey Zappe and Mac Jones kept switching places at quarterback.
If you’re worried about the positive game script for the Patriots since they are favored by 5.5 points, that shouldn’t bother Meyers. Since last season, he has averaged 57.8 receiving yards per game in games where the Patriots won by multiple possessions.
Second-option pass-catcher DeVante Parker has also been ruled out for Week 9. Don’t overthink it because we’re somehow getting a buy-low on one of the best wide receivers in football.
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ‘ems:
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Sleeper picks, using all-in payout; profits 1u if both picks hit
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 3 Underdog picks without insurance; profits 2.5u if all three picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.