This is the Best Pick ‘Em Player Props article for Week 8! Injuries suck and fantasy football owners paid the price heavily in Week 7 by losing highly-relevant offensive names like Breece Hall, D.K. Metcalf, David Njoku, and Matt Ryan. Luckily, there exists a ton of value in player props, so we get a new shot every week thanks to playing DFS. Welcome back to the article series where we spot values in player prop over/unders. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value in the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match of up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff members. This is posted a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.
Week 7 Review
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) October 24, 2022
Yet again, the Underdog Pick Generator was a showcase of green as most of the selections were cashes. Yet, we once again ran into some tough luck with the final card that made it into the article. Last week’s final wagers can be viewed in this article.
It was all about bad beats stemming from injuries as all four of our reads looked good before the narratives were cut short early.
Week 7 Sleeper play: Darius Slayton UNDER 2.5 receptions, Cade Otton OVER 28.5 receiving yards
Darius Slayton, the epitome of the word inefficient, was at it again in Week 7. He logged over 50-percent of the snaps for the fourth straight week due to the injury to wide receiver Sterling Shepard. He drew six targets but hauled in three receptions to go over this line. His last catch was made after Daniel Bellinger left the game with an eye injury.
The rookie tight end Cade Otton did his job, though. In the most shocking loss of the season, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell to the tanking Carolina Panthers, Otton got his work in with starting tight end Cameron Brate sidelined again. Despite only an 80.3-percent snap share and 62.0-percent route participation, he drew five targets for the second time on the season. Additionally, he hauled in four catches for 64 yards on 33 air yards. This was a sweat-free bet on that leg.
Week 7 Underdog play: Brian Robinson OVER 51.5 rushing yards, Breece Hall OVER 82.5 rushing + receiving yards
The Packers can’t defend the run to save their lives. That inability was on full display against the Taylor Heinicke-led Commanders. Despite the inefficiency to start his NFL career, the inspirational story of Brian Robinson found success on the ground in Week 7 thanks to volume. Robinson carried the ball 20 times for 73 yards.
Meanwhile, we saved the most painful for last. Breece Hall would have cashed this pick-2 for us before halftime if it were up to the football gods to keep him healthy. Unfortunately, we did not get that good fortune in Week 7. The generational prospect, Hall, broke out for 72 yards on four carries in just over a quarter of play and then tore his ACL, ending his rookie season. I don’t want to talk about it.
- Week 7 Legs: 2-2; overall -1.00u
- YTD: 13-14-1; -2.00u
Week 8 Picks
Pick No. 1 (Sleeper): Derek Carr OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns
This season, Derek Carr has cleared this number in four of his six games. Additionally, he’s cleared this number in four out of four games in which he faced a defense that has given up at least one passing touchdown per game this season. New Orleans fits this description and should be troubled again on defense. They rank below average in rush DVOA and pass DVOA as a defense and will be without No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore for the third straight week. This prop is juiced to -135 on sportsbooks right now for a reason.
Bettors shouldn’t worry about Davante Adams‘ availability. His limited practices this week were due to an illness, and he was back in action on Friday. He’ll play, and that’s all Carr needs to throw a couple of touchdowns. Additionally, the defense will have to be concerned with top-five fantasy running back Josh Jacobs in the red zone.
Pick No. 2 (Sleeper): Jaylen Waddle OVER 64.5 receiving yards
Welcome back to one of our favorite strategies of DFS stacking and pick ‘em props—taking a pass-catcher in a projected shootout. The Lions are one of the worst defenses in the NFL. This is one of the reasons the Vegas total points line of 51.5 is the highest on the Week 8 slate. Seven different wide receivers have already gone over this number against the Lions this season. In particular, two wide receiver teammate duos have already cashed this over in the same game.
Metcalf and Tyler Lockett posted 149 and 91 receiving yards, respectively, in Week 4. Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel posted 75 and 78 receiving yards, respectively, in Week 2. That bodes well for arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Waddle has cleared this number in five of his seven games this season and four out of four healthy Tua Tagovailoa games. Like the Carr leg, this over is also juiced at -135 on sportsbooks. To add to the Waddle wagon in Week 8, PlayerProfiler.com‘s Cody Carpentier dabbled in this prop on last night’s Propcast Happy Hour show.
Pick No. 3 (Underdog): Trevor Lawrence OVER 0.5 interceptions
While the world will fade the Broncos due to their quarterback narratives, I will realize they still have a chance to win this game as underdogs. For them to get it done, they will need their elite pass-defense to step up. That’s what I’m betting on here.
The Broncos’ defense ranks No. 3 in pass DVOA and poses an egregious mismatch in this game. The No. 5-ranked pass rush win rate goes up against the Jaguars’ No. 27-ranked pass block win rate. This season, Trevor Lawrence has posted a 30.0-percent completion percentage (No. 29 in the NFL), 5.7 accuracy rating (No. 22), and 56.4-percent catchable pass rate (No. 24) when under pressure. This prop is juiced to -125 on sportsbooks for a reason. We just need Lawrence to throw one pick in London against a fully-healthy Broncos defense with safety Justin Simmons back in the mix to make plays.
Pick No. 4 (Underdog): Jonathan Taylor UNDER 95.5 rushing + receiving yards
At full health, Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in the NFL. Against a mild rushing defense, he has the ability to go over this number and ruin our leg with no sweat. The truth is—neither will be the case in Week 8. Taylor has gone under this line in every game except in Week 1 against the horrible Texans’ defense. This week, however, Taylor will face a Commander’s defense that ranks No. 29 in pass DVOA but No. 4 in rush DVOA. Additionally, Taylor now plays with a quarterback that is a serious threat on the ground himself. New Colts starter Sam Ehlinger rushed for 1,903 yards and 33 touchdowns as a college football player for the Texas Longhorns.
To add to the attractiveness of this prop, the line is set at 89.5 on sportsbooks right now. We’ll gladly take the extra six yards of leeway provided by Underdog.
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick-ems:
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Sleeper picks, using all-in payout; profits 1u if both picks hit
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Underdog picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find an edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.