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Only once in the last decade has a Doug Pederson-led offense been willing to run the ball more often than league average in neutral Game Script situations. Pairing that pass-friendly philosophy with the strong possibility that the Jaguars are once again trailing in most of their games next season probably means that we shouldn’t expect high carry totals out of Jacksonville in 2022.

James Robinson is a legitimate talent and one of the best pure runners in the league. Last season marks the second straight year that he’s led an NFL backfield while posting positive team-relative efficiency numbers. His BAE Rating and RSR marks in 2020 were in the 54th and 90th-percentiles, respectively. There are a lot of moving parts in this backfield that make it difficult to navigate in dynasty, but I view that more as an opportunity than as a problem.

Recent news from the Combine regarding Kenny Pickett’s small hand size has rekindled the flame of the hand size argument. Pickett’s hands measured at 8.5-inches, which puts him in the 1st-percentile of hand size among NFL QBs. There has been recent success of small-hand quarterbacks. However, the concern comes in because Pickett would have the smallest hands among all 32 starting quarterbacks.

To answer the question of how much hand-size matters, it depends on the athlete. A small-hand QB does carry a 10-percent higher chance of fumbling, but what can he do to make up for that? Michael Vick’s answer was mobility. Patrick Mahomes’ answer was improvisation. Small hands are by no means a disqualifier, but there is a learning curve for sure. It remains to be seen what Kenny Pickett’s answer will be to make up for his hand size, but it will be intriguing to watch.

Isaiah Spiller’s lack of bounding range provides cause for concern with his 108.0 (7th-percentile among qualified running backs) Burst Score. In college, he was not a bruiser against larger defenders. And his elusiveness may not translate immediately to the NFL based on his lack of burst. His ability to be patient with good field vision will need to be more prevalent in order for him to overcome athletic inefficiencies against the rest of the draft class.

Kyren Williams ran an RB Combine-worst 4.65 (30th-percentile) 40-yard dash and jumped a low 32-inches in the vertical jump and 116-inches in the broad jump. His slow movement and lack of range as a small-frame back has hurt his stock, for both the NFL and fantasy football. Williams’ chances of being a three-down back in the NFL are looking slimmer. And his prospective draft capital has taken a hit.

Welcome to the latest and greatest arena where fantasy football takes thrive or die. A place where fantasy football propositions can gain validity or be thrown by the wayside. This is the second installment of the Fantasy Football Shark Tank.

Christian Watson has exceeded all expectations so far this draft season. He put himself on the map by killing the Senior Bowl. The wide receiver further elevated his stock value with his excellent performance at the NFL Combine. If the NFL continues the current trend of taking five or six wide receivers in round one, Watson could very well end up being one of them. 

James Conner was not good as the lead runner. Largely due to his performance in short-yardage and other obvious running situations, he posted a quality Relative Success Rate, but he was pretty bad otherwise. His YPC+ is in the 15th-percentile. Given his basically seeing the same box counts as the team’s other backs, there’s not much excuse for his inefficiency. The Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating he posted is a 21st-percentile mark; the lowest in the entire league among backs who led their teams in attempts.

A bet on Conner as a high-end fantasy option in 2022 is a bet on two unlikely developments coming to fruition at once: having an elite touchdown rate in back-to-back seasons, and bucking the trend of running backs over the 25-year mark suddenly losing their effectiveness and then fading into the ether. Neither of those are bets I’m willing to make on their own, and I’m certainly not going to parlay them. A better wager would be on Eno Benjamin, a guy who was both productive and efficient in college, to bounce back from a disappointing small-sample rookie year and play well in the RB2 role.

David Njoku is a big-time athlete at the tight end position. So much so that the Cleveland Browns took him in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft. They used a first-round pick on him for good reason, but he hasn’t lived up to that draft capital. Much of it can be excused to a very poor situation.

David Njoku is a talented NFL tight end. That has never been in dispute. But circumstances have not fully allowed for those talents to flourish in the NFL. A right situation after free agency could finally free him up to do so. We’ll see what ultimately will happen in free agency that begins on March 15th, but he is worth buying now before his value potentially explodes in a couple of weeks.

The Steelers are simply a pass-happy team in general. Ben Roethlisberger is gone, Mitchell Trubisky (or maybe a rookie?) is in at quarterback. And more changes are sure to come for the Steelers offensive personnel. Maybe, maybe, we’ll see some shift in play-calling and overall philosophy as a result. However, this pass-heavy approach is something we’ve seen for years now in Pittsburgh. So it seems unlikely that they’d swing their pendulum fully toward a high-volume rushing attack.

Leave the Stone Age. Stop citing Najee Harris’ low raw efficiency numbers as a reason why he was overrated as a prospect or should be faded in dynasty. He was a great player in college and he’s a great player now, from both productivity and efficiency standpoints.

Game Scripts are clearly important in determining who to start each week in seasonal leagues. But understanding players’ roles in offenses are pivotal in drafts to determine just how dependent score is to fantasy performance. In this article, we identify some players who were affected in extreme fashion by specific Game Scripts.

In the future, we can analyze historical data for this issue. Is a player’s role in an offense sticky from year to year if they stick with the same team? Does that correlate highly with their fantasy efficiency as it did for some players in 2021? Play-by-play data and the resulting fantasy splits, available to us at PlayerProfiler, can help answer these questions to get ahead of teams’ game plans this offseason to avoid the narrative-dependent stat padders and to buy into the sustainable situations.

D.J. Chark didn’t play much in his rookie season. But, he broke out in 2019 to the tune of 73 receptions on 118 targets for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games. After finishing 2019 as the WR16 in fantasy football, he tumbled to a WR50 finish and was the WR42 on a per-game basis. That is not going to get the job done at all.

I personally believe that the 2019 D.J. Chark is closer to the real thing. Though his 2020 season was concerning, the 2019 season is the one we’ve seen him start and finish without a myriad of injuries. If he really is a receiver of the caliber he showed that year, and lands in a situation conducive to fantasy success, he will get back to putting big-time numbers. That scenario is very much in his range of outcomes, making him a buy in dynasty and best-ball leagues before free agency kicks off.

Simply, the Titans have one of the most run-happy offenses in the league, regardless of situation. It’s a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg question to ponder whether that philosophy would persist if Henry was not on the team (though their situational rush rate over expectation was still +8-percent in games he didn’t play last year), but he’s under contract for another three years. The Titans should remain one of the highest volume rushing teams in the NFL in 2022.

Very often, the decline for top-tier running backs comes suddenly and without warning. With that in mind, the performance that Derrick Henry gave us last year should be viewed as a gift. While still providing your fantasy teams with elite raw production, he whispered in the ears of anyone listening that the end is coming. It may come with one last 1,000-yard swan song at 4.1 yards per carry. But it’s better to be out early than late. The reign of King Henry is coming to end.