Week 5 got underway on Thursday with an all-too-familiar feeling of disappointment for the Dallas Cowboys, who were taken down by the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home. We’ve got a couple of great games this week. We return to London as the Jaguars ‘host’ the embattled Philadelphia Eagles, the Cardinals play host to the Lions in a potential buffet game for fantasy managers, and a potential Super Bowl preview on Monday Night Football between the Bills and Rams.
Before we get into this week’s wars, let’s take a look at how last week played out.
The scoring system is closest to the final rank wins. I highlighted these players before Sunday’s games:
Bryce Young – Sportsbooks win
Bucky Irving – Experts win
Malik Washington – Experts win
Kyle Pitts – Sportsbooks win
We got ourselves a tie.
Now, Week 5.
Sportsbook Rankings vs Expert Consensus Rankings
Justin Herbert | QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Sportsbook Rank: QB16
Expert Consensus Rank: QB22
As a follower of the England soccer team, I’m unfortunately all too familiar with the crushing disappointment that only sport can bring. This summer, as the World Cup unfolded, the hope and expectations grew. At the same time, expectations were growing in Los Angeles as the Chargers hired Mike McDaniel as the offensive coordinator. Expectations have a nasty habit of setting us up for disappointment. Like England’s World Cup campaign, the excitement around this Chargers offense has dissipated into bitter frustration.
Four games into the season, Justin Herbert ranks as the QB34 in PPG. Cam Ward and Geno Smith have more fantasy points than Herbert, as does Caleb Williams, who has missed the last two games. On paper, it doesn’t look like it is going to get any better any time soon. The Chargers will be without both starting tackles in Sunday’s meeting with the Broncos. Plus, Ladd McConkey is questionable to play.
Still, there is a case for this offense against the Broncos. Denver’s usually bulletproof secondary will certainly be without star cornerback Patrick Surtain II and fellow starter Riley Moss. Herbert’s passing-yard total (200.5) ranks 20th among all quarterbacks. His rushing-yard total (25.5) ranks sixth overall.
Alvin Kamara | RB, New Orleans Saints
Sportsbook Rank: RB17
Expert Consensus Rank: RB25
Christmas Day, 2020. I’m trying to enjoy Christmas Dinner with my family. I can’t. My eyes are on Alvin Kamara, who is completely dismantling my championship hopes. It was relentless. One touchdown after another. After another. After another. After another. After another. How are you supposed to enjoy turkey under those circumstances? I’ve never really been the same since.
Six years after the Christmas Day my family no longer talks about, Alvin Kamara is once again leading the Saints backfield following an injury to Travis Etienne Jr. Kamara has struggled for efficiency through three weeks, averaging just 2.96 yards per carry. Against the Falcons’ staunch run defense, he went for just 23 rushing yards yet still finished as the RB9 due to his involvement in the passing game and his two scores.
The Saints face the Vikings and Brian Flores’ blitz-happy defense. Although the Falcons were able to generate pressure on 49% of dropbacks, the Saints have shown that they are capable of moving the ball. The Saints rank in the top 10 in both total offensive yards and points. The Vikings are giving up the fewest fantasy points to running backs through four weeks, and that is reflected in Kamara’s rushing yard total of 32.5 (29th overall). But at this point in his career, we know that Kamara’s fantasy value isn’t predicated on rushing. Kamara ranks tied for fourth in receptions and eighth in receiving yards.
Josh Downs | WR, Indianapolis Colts
Sportsbook Rank: WR14
Expert Consensus Rank: WR20
One of my favorite offseason traditions is touting Josh Downs as a potential breakout candidate. We’ve been waiting for the Josh Downs breakout as long as we’ve been waiting for GTA VI. We have a release date for GTA VI on the horizon. The sportsbooks think we could have a Josh Downs breakout game on the horizon, too.
Downs was in a good spot last week. Alec Pierce is out indefinitely. Keenan Allen was ruled out prior to kickoff. The Commanders were giving up a then-league-high fantasy points per game against wide receivers. It didn’t happen. Downs had just four targets, three receptions, and 16 yards. He was out-snapped, out-targeted, and outscored by Laquon Treadwell as the Colts scored 30 points.
The sportsbooks are touting a big Josh Downs week against the Steelers. Last season, Downs recorded his second-highest fantasy-point total of the year against the Steelers, finishing with 57 yards, six receptions, and a touchdown. Downs has the 13th-highest receiving-yard total (57.5) and a receptions line of 5.5, tied for seventh-highest on the week.
Dalton Schultz | TE, Houston Texans
Sportsbook Rank: TE 12
Expert Consensus Rank: TE17
Nico Collins’ return to the lineup saw Dalton Schultz’s value drop precipitously. Against the Cowboys, Schultz recorded a season-low 2.9 fantasy points, logging just two targets and two receptions. With Collins around, it is hard to see Schultz getting the volume to support anything other than being a touchdown-dependent flex flyer.
Still, sportsbooks are ranking Schultz as a low-end TE1 in Week 5 against the Titans. Schultz’ receiving yard total (38.5) ranks 10th among all tight ends, while his receptions line of 4.5 ranks tied for fourth behind Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and Sam LaPorta. The Titans have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (27.3 yards) and the 10th-fewest fantasy points to the position.
Elliott Troop is a fantasy football analyst for PlayerProfiler.
Follow @StartSitEmFF
