Dynasty is all about timing the market. Buying low and selling high are the most obvious ways to capitalize, but sometimes you have to make hard decisions that contradict that premise.
This week, I’m looking at three players whose values (or situations) have shifted since kickoff.
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Week 5 Buy, Sell, or Hold
BUY Antonio Williams | WR, Washington Commanders
Washington keeps finding ways to get the ball to Antonio Williams. He’s run a route on 52% of dropbacks this season, and the weekly numbers show an overall positive trend: 32% in Week 1, 66% in Week 2, 30% in Week 3, and 81% in Week 4.
Week 3 needs some context. Against Seattle, Washington went with heavier personnel, which pulled receivers off the field. Toss that game out and focus on the upward trajectory.
He’s also made the most of his chances. Williams has earned a target on 25.7% of his routes, with an 11.2-yard average depth of target. His 1.85 yards per route run looks ordinary on paper, but an 87-yard touchdown was erased in Week 4 on a ticky-tacky illegal shift penalty. With that play, his YPRR jumps to 3.02.
Your league mates will miss a play like this in the stat sheet, but the coaches took note.
We’re going to see a lot more Antonio Williams going forward. pic.twitter.com/XPPeXXJV2e
— Alfredo Brown (@AlfredoABrown) October 4, 2026
Blocked by Vets
So why isn’t he a full-timer yet? Stefon Diggs. The two like to work the same areas of the field, and Diggs has started hot. He’s earned a 28.3% target rate and turned 30 targets into 18 catches, 170 yards, and three touchdowns.
Diggs turns 33 next month, though, and he’s on a one-year deal. Williams is the obvious successor, and he looks the part. Terry McLaurin won’t block him long term, either. McLaurin just turned 31, even if his contract runs through 2028. At some point, Washington will want the younger, faster guy on the field more often.
What does he cost? In some leagues, a second-round pick might get him. Sharp managers won’t sell at that price, and I don’t blame them. I also don’t want to empty my wallet, because there’s real risk. If Diggs stays healthy and keeps scoring, there’s a chance he sticks around for another year. Or Washington could add another stud from a loaded 2027 rookie class.
My approach is to get creative. Contenders need points now, so I’ll offer them immediate production for a player whose payoff comes later. Here are deals I’d make:
- Michael Wilson for Williams+
- Braelon Allen, Ollie Gordon, or any backup RB who just got promoted for Williams
- Travis Kelce for Williams (TEP leagues)
In each case, I’m giving up a short-term asset for a receiver with a clear path to a bigger role in 2027.
SELL Brian Thomas Jr. | WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
The trade window on Brian Thomas Jr. closed slowly this offseason. Every Parker Washington hype piece from the Jacksonville beat knocked BTJ down another rung. Four weeks into the season, the two have basically swapped dynasty values.
Now the window has cracked back open. Trade rumors are circulating, and ESPN’s Dan Graziano put Thomas on a list of receivers the Chiefs should go after. Graziano was wishcasting, but a little speculation can move a market.
Does Jacksonville have any reason to deal him? I can’t find one. Thomas is young, talented, and on a rookie contract. The coaching staff likes him, and head coach Liam Coen has gone out of his way to praise his run blocking.
#Jaguars HC Liam Coen said he showed this block by Brian Thomas Jr. to the team today along with another key block on third and short.
A good performance yesterday by BTJ after only playing 23 snaps vs. New England. https://t.co/TiGFmy5nPU
— Juston W. Lewis (@JustonLewis_) October 5, 2026
That praise isn’t the kind fantasy managers want to hear. And if the Jaguars wanted to shop him, wouldn’t they feed him targets to raise his price? They haven’t. Thomas has slid into a part-time role as a deep-threat option.
His playing time tracks closely with how often Jacksonville uses 11 personnel:
- Week 1: 42% 11 personnel, 35% snap share
- Week 2: 65% 11 personnel, 54% snap share
- Week 3: 54% 11 personnel, 38% snap share
- Week 4: 75% 11 personnel, 62% snap share
In other words, he isn’t even a lock to play when Jacksonville goes three-wide. That’s not how teams use a featured receiver, and it’s definitely not how you get a productive fantasy asset.
The rumors give sellers an opening. I’d move Thomas now and recoup what I can before this usage solidifies and drags him further down the rankings. I’ll aim high and lean on the trade buzz, but I’m fine settling at market value.
Deals I’d take:
- Thomas + 2nd for Emeka Egbuka
- Thomas for Makai Lemon
- Thomas for Antonio Williams+
- Thomas for Terrance Ferguson+ (TEP leagues)
- Thomas for a 2027 2nd + 3rd
That last one hurts. A 2nd and a 3rd feel light for a player some of us drafted as a future WR1. Sadly, a 38% snap share in Week 3 hurts more.
HOLD Omarion Hampton | RB, Los Angeles Chargers
I’ve always believed in Omarion Hampton’s talent. And in the offseason, you could find me touting Hampton’s situation from the rooftops. “Is there a better situation for a RB in the entire league?” is something I said. Well, at least I was right about the talent. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has forced 16 missed tackles (25.4% juke rate). He’s also created 3.33 yards per touch — a mark commonly associated with elite backs — year after year.
The usage is the problem. Hampton has played 48.2% of the snaps and handled 56.6% of the backfield opportunities, with just five targets. In Week 4, Keaton Mitchell outsnapped him. Kimani Vidal and fullback Alec Ingold matched his snap count.
Chargers OC Mike McDaniel: “I see Omarion Hampton as the starter but I see the RB room as a strength.”
on Hampton splitting carries: “If you don’t disperse carries, it’s very rare that guys are available every week.”
“I don’t see any change in the depth chart at all.”
— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) October 8, 2026
The market has noticed. KeepTradeCut lists Hampton as its third-biggest dynasty faller, down more than 1,600 points in a month. That leaves managers stuck. Selling now locks in a huge loss, and buying makes little sense while he isn’t producing.
So you hold, and you bet on talent, because situations change. Hampton needs a lot to change, though.
How Can Hampton Rebound?
First, he needs a real role in the passing game. Vidal and Mitchell have both run more routes than Hampton. Those routes need to go to him.
Next, the offensive line has to bounce back in a big way. A hefty 96.4% of Hampton’s rushing yards have come after contact. Defenders are meeting him almost as soon as he gets the ball.
Most importantly, his opportunity numbers have to climb, and by a lot. Mike McDaniel has a bell-cow talent in his backfield. He needs to stop sniffing his own farts and use him like one.
If this keeps up, it’s hard to imagine McDaniel sticking around Los Angeles long enough to walk a red carpet. A coaching change could flip Hampton’s outlook overnight. If it happens, you want him on your roster.
Jon Machado is a fantasy football analyst and host of the Future 1st podcast for PlayerProfiler
Follow @JMac_FF
