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The return of Jameis Winston to the Saints brings several different fantasy implications, not only for him, but for the team’s skill players. As a starter for New Orleans last season, Winston averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game with 14 passing touchdowns to just 3 interceptions in seven games. He also tacked on 166 rushing yards, showing he has the rushing potential to be impactful in fantasy. Winston had two top-5 weekly fantasy finishes in that time. However, he had four games under 15 fantasy points, showing he was a very volatile option on a Saints team with limited receiving options.

After releasing Cole Beasley, the Buffalo Bills went out and signed Jamison Crowder. Crowder (whose Best Comparable is Beasley) has spent the majority of his career as a slot receiver. Last season in twelve games, he took 334 (No. 17) Slot Snaps at a 66.8-percent Slot Rate. In Buffalo last season, Beasley had an 82.1-percent Slot Rate with Isaiah McKenzie filling in the slot as well. With Beasley out, Crowder’s role will almost certainly be as Josh Allen’s slot receiver, a position where Beasley saw over 100 targets each of the last three seasons.

Cooks is no stranger to producing in the face of adversity. He’s proved repeatedly no matter who is in charge of getting him the ball, he will produce. He’s posted six 1,000-plus yard seasons in eight pro seasons, doing so with four different teams over that span. Throughout his tenure, he finished the season outside the top 24 wide receivers in Fantasy Points Per Game merely once.

Brandin Cooks provides value in every league format, especially for those who prefer a Hero RB or Robust RB approach. The fact that he can be had after Tyler Lockett (ADP 46.5), Gabriel Davis (ADP 66.3), and Darnell Mooney (ADP 63.3) in Underdog is criminal. To make matters worse he is equally overlooked in dynasty leagues. He is currently being drafted as the 38th wide receiver off the board in dynasty startups, following aging and less opportune players such as Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett and Odell Beckham.

In this edition of Thinking About Thinking (Ranges of Outcomes), I continue my series addressing probabilistic fantasy football strategy. Each article I will unpack ways our brains work in irrational ways that create value in your fantasy football leagues. Last week I discussed analytical prospect models, and the importance of humility when evaluating rookies. If you haven’t yet, make sure to check that out to get a feel for this series!

In a ceiling scenario, Tua Tagovailoa is a top-12 quarterback this year with his new weapons, entrenching himself as Miami’s franchise quarterback. On the other hand, he could fail to meet expectations and carry precarious job security into 2023. Schrodinger’s Tua is both alive and dead, but his cost resides in purgatory. His market value is a compromise position between two plausible outcomes which attempts to balance them appropriately.

Consistency is highly sought after by many in the fantasy football community. Since it’s human nature to avoid risk, we feel more comfortable putting a player in our lineup if we know he’ll reliably score 12-15 points compared to a player ranging from 5-25 points. But is consistency a trait we can predict from year to year? Follow along as I use the power of statistics to better analyze the relationship between fantasy points and the consistency with which they’re scored. 

Mike Williams in 2021 finished as the WR14 in PPG by averaging 15.4 PPR points per game, but conversations about his outlook in 2022 are centered on his inconsistent production. His six games with more than 20 PPR points and seven games with fewer than 10 PPR points are worrying many drafters, yet his CV only checked in at 0.687, on the slightly inconsistent end of our “average” bucket. History would suggest that Williams’ CV will improve and he is likely to stay productive in fantasy.

Round 3 (Picks No. 65-105) No. 65 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Roger McCreary, CB – Auburn No. 66 – Dallas Cowboys – Breece Hall, RB – Iowa State No. 67 – New York Giants – Jalen Tolbert, WR – South Alabama No. 68 – Houston Texans – Isaiah Spiller, RB – Texas A&M No. 69 […]

Fantasy football is obsessed with “alpha” receivers who look dominant and can make monster contested catches. However, this provides an opportunity to find cheaper alternatives that will outperform ADP and ultimately help win leagues. Targets score fantasy points. And these receivers have “alpha” production, while coming at “beta” price points. 

Brandin Cooks is consistently overlooked in the fantasy football community, and size is a big reason. 2021 was quietly a career year for Cooks, in which he posted highs in targets and receptions. Davis Mills also flashed in his rookie season, and will pay dividends for both the Texans offense and Cooks if his development continues in 2022. It also helps that Cooks is an elite-athlete who has 4.33 (98th-percentile) speed and a 98th-percentile Agility Score. 

Brad Holmes spent 8 of 16 seasons with Les Snead in Los Angeles, and I would be doing this wrong if I didn’t remind folks what happened during Snead’s first draft back in 2012 while holding the No. 2 overall pick. If not at number 2, the Jets are another spot to look for Atlanta or Seattle to move up.

The benefit of trading away a franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson is reaping the reward with draft picks, and building from within.. the correct way to rebuild a franchise, Evan Neal and Jordan Davis in Round 1 is a smash.

The Bengals have a good quarterback and good skill position players. And they just invested heavily in their offensive line via free agency after going to the Super Bowl. They should be a good team again in 2022. And while we should expect them to continue letting Joe Burrow sling it, they should be nursing enough late leads that a league-average finish in rushing attempts doesn’t seem unreasonable.

You could make a good argument for Joe Mixon being among the few best pure runners in the league. While he turns 26 this July, he doesn’t show any sign of slowing down. It’s tough to trust running backs past age-25. But his dynasty valuation hasn’t fallen off too much. The Bengals are a good team with a good offense. Mixon should be able to take advantage of that situation as one of the league’s best running backs. He’s slightly underpriced relative to other similarly-aged runners in dynasty.

The PlayerProfiler and RotoUnderworld maestro of opportunities, head game analyst, and NFL draft analyst Cody Carpentier is back with the 2022 NFL Draft Team Needs. Look for more Mock Drafts in the Dynasty Deluxe section under NFL Draft Index. Aside from NFL Mock Draft Data, you can find 2022 Rookie Mock Draft ADP (SuperFlex and 1QB) as well as Dynasty Mock Draft ADP (SuperFlex and 1QB), a Dynasty League Trade Finder App, Rankings, Trade Analyzer, and the Brand New Dynasty Dominator Reloaded.

While notoriously a run-first team, the Seattle Seahawks were actually No. 27 in the NFL in rushing attempts in 2021. Their finishes in this category have fluctuated wildly in the last half-decade. It seems that much of that up-and-down is due to Pete Carroll’s internal struggle between letting Russ cook and sticking with his personal preference to establish the run. Now, Russell Wilson is gone. And Carroll’s comments this offseason make it clear that the Seahawks intend to be a run-first football team going forward.

Rashaad Penny is a low key win-now piece that can be had in the relative scrap heap of dynasty startups. And I don’t think it’s out of the question that he’s more productive in 2022 than guys like David Montgomery or J.K. Dobbins. The Seahawks want to run the ball. Penny has a consistent history of positive team-relative efficiency. He’s at the age apex and presumably healthy at the same time that Chris Carson seems to no longer be either one. If it’s ever going to happen, 2022 is the year.