Dynasty Fantasy Football Moves to Make: Dynasty State of the Union – AFC South

by Dan Williamson · Featured

PlayerProfiler is home to the very best dynasty rankings and tools in the industry. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out. This article focuses on the specific Dynasty Fantasy Football Moves to Make within the AFC South. This is the Dynasty State of the Union: AFC South!

Houston Texans

GM: Nick Caserio
Coach: DeMeco Ryans
Salary Cap Space Available: 57.9M (7th most)
Draft Slot: 23rd
Draft Picks: 1.23, 2.27, 3.22, 4.23, 4.27, 7.14, 7.27, 7th (from Chiefs)
Unrestricted Free Agents: Dalton Schultz, Devin Singletary, Noah Brown, Ka’imi Fairbairn, Dare Ogunbowale

It didn’t take long for the Texans to go from the outhouse to the (dynasty) penthouse. That’s the instant impact that happens when a team nails the head coaching hire and drafts a QB who looks to be an elite, if not generational talent. The Texans also shocked the real NFL world, taking the bull by the horns (see what I did there?) and making the playoffs a full year, if not two, before anyone expected they could do so. They weren’t just happy to be there either. The Texans smoked a longsuffering Browns franchise in the Wildcard round before getting suffocated by the Ravens.

C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud has already muscled his way into the top 4 of PlayerProfiler’s dynasty SuperFlex rankings after one precocious year. If you have him rostered, he’s a definite hold. QBs who are this good right out of the box rarely ever turn into duds. For those looking to acquire, this might not be the best time to do so as his price is already maxed out. Keep in mind, he finished the year as QB8 in PPG among QBs who played at least eight games. That was behind Brock Purdy and Jordan Love.

That’s not to say he can’t improve. However, said improvement will have to come as a thrower of the ball since Stroud isn’t a big runner. He rarely ran in college and despite saying he’d be more willing to use his legs in the pros, he still barely managed to add 10 yards a game with his rushing. Davis Mills is nothing more than a very cheap Stroud insurance policy with no future as anything but a band-aid starter.

Houston’s Draft Picks and Salary Cap

Houston has the draft picks and salary cap to make a splash at RB if they want to. Devin Singletary is a free agent. While they can certainly afford to bring him back, it’s a near certainty he’s going to get much stronger competition in-house than Dameon Pierce. If for some reason they choose to let him go elsewhere, there’s really no telling what sort of situation he’ll land in. He’s a solid sell. The sell window has already slammed shut on Dameon Pierce. This is due to a massively disappointing sophomore slump. It doesn’t look likely to open again anytime soon. Whichever new RB(s) land here by free agency or NFL Draft could be very fantasy-relevant if not an outright league-winner.

The future is bright for Nico Collins and Tank Dell, former third-round picks who are hitched to one of the best passers in the league. The biggest worry for each of them is much the same as our concerns in the RB room: The Texans have plenty of draft picks and salary cap to add a top-of-the-line talent at WR. For this reason, it’s best to think of Collins and Dell as holds rather than buys. Both of them played at flanker or split end far more than in the slot. Therefore, it will be important to keep a close eye on what type of WR talent the Texans add. If he’s more of a slot player, that should only minimally disturb the status quo.

Adding a Receiver in the Slot

The Texans should be looking to add a slot specialist though, as they’ve gotten by with veteran journeymen mostly holding down that role. Robert Woods is at the end of his career and is miscast as anything other than a source of veteran savvy. Noah Brown has put up some splash games. However, he’s really just a guy at WR who fell into the right situation and is now a free agent. John Metchie is the lottery ticket here as a former college star whose health problems may have sapped him of whatever elite ability he might have once possessed.

Dalton Schultz did for the Texans the same thing he’s done for the Cowboys in previous years and the same thing he’s done for his fantasy managers almost since entering the league: He put a nice solid floor on TE performance. For Dynasty he’s a hold. You can win with Schultz, but you’ll never win because of him. He’s once again a free agent. The Texans will have to make a move at the position in the NFL Draft or free agency if they don’t bring him back because none of the other options on the roster (Brevin Jordan, Teagan Quitoriano, Eric Saubert, or Dalton Keene) have shown the ability to step into full-time role.

Dynasty Buys: None
Dynasty Holds: C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz
Dynasty Sell: Devin Singletary

Tennessee Titans

GM: Ran Carthon
Coach: Brian Callahan
Salary Cap Space Available: 68.1M (2nd most)
Draft Slot: 7th
Draft Picks: 1.07, 2.07, 4.07, 5.26, 6.07, 7.01, 7.22
Unrestricted Free Agents: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, Chris Moore, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

With the ouster of Mike Vrabel and the hire of Brian Callahan as the new head coach, the Titans are headed for a big shift in their offensive identity. The big question is whether they can put the pieces in place to make it work, or whether they’ll spend another year (at least) in the AFC cellar before challenging to make the playoffs again. Callahan is another branch in the Sean McVay coaching tree, via the Bengals where he previously served as offensive coordinator. Armed with the No. 2 most cap space in the NFL, the Titans have plenty of ammo to land quality free agents, plus early picks in the first and second round of the draft.

Ryan Tannehill

Unrestricted Free Agent Ryan Tannehill is headed for hopefully greener pastures where he’ll at least be given a shot to land a starting job, though it’s unclear how much he has left in the tank. Nevertheless, he’s a sneaky buy candidate for superflex leagues as a throw-in to a larger deal. Will Levis has had some promising moments as the starting QB. However, he needs some help to solidify himself as a quality starter in 2024 and beyond. Presumably a more modern offensive scheme and some quality coaching will provide a solid push in the right direction. PlayerProfiler currently has him ranked No. 24 among dynasty QBs. Therefore, now’s the time to buy if you are bullish on his chances of becoming a quality starter.

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry is another likely castoff as the Titans look to retool. He’s currently a solid hold based on the chance that he signs with a high-powered offense. If that comes to pass, the sell window will open one final time. Sharp managers will take advantage and move him while the news is fresh, and optimism runs unchecked. The buying window on Tajae Sharpe has slammed shut given every dynasty manager already knows he’s got the inside track to the starting job. His value will spike yet again the moment Derrick Henry signs elsewhere. Temper your enthusiasm though, as Tennessee will definitely look to add quality talent into this backfield. Julius Chestnut managers will be optimistic this offseason. However, if you don’t already roster him, there’s no strong reason to pay much to get him.

DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins can easily force his way off of the Titans roster if he wants, given his 17 million 2024 cap hit vs only 7 million in dead cap if released. The Titans obviously have plenty of cap space to keep him around if that’s the direction they want to go in, and Hopkins is amenable to staying. If I were betting though, I’d bet on a reasonably amicable divorce, allowing “Nuk” to go out and find the best possible situation with a new team. For these reasons, he’s a mild buy for contenders, given his situation is unlikely to worsen. He will be a year older but speed has never been his game so he could be on a Larry Fitgerald career track.

I’ve been a Treylon Burks truther since he came into the league, but his career to date has been an unmitigated disaster. If you have any faith left in him at all, his value should hit rock bottom the moment the Titans sign or draft a big-name WR. That will be the time to make your lowball offer and stash him on your bench in hopes that the light finally goes on for him. None of the rest of the WRs here are worth holding unless your league is incredibly deep.

Tight End

Chigoziem Okonkwo has teased fantasy gamers for the past two years without really coming through in any meaningful way. We can hope that the new offensive scheme favors him, but there are plenty of landmines he needs to clear before we should be putting much faith in him. We can’t yet say whether he will be a main cog or a role player in the new offense. Additionally, there’s real danger that one or more free agent signings could hurt his stock as well. I’d be a seller if you can find a buyer who’s convinced that the new regime is going to unlock his potential and is willing to pay a price which reflects that view.

Dynasty Buys: Will Levis, Ryan Tannehill (Superflex only), DeAndre Hopkins (contenders only)
Dynasty Holds: Tyjae Spears
Dynasty Sell: Derrick Henry, Chig Okonkwo

Indianapolis Colts

GM: Chris Ballard
Coach: Shane Steichen
Salary Cap Space Available: 58.9M (5th most)
Draft Slot: 15th
Draft Picks: 1.15, 2.15, 3.15, 4.15, 5.15, 6.15, 7.15
Unrestricted Free Agents: Michael Pittman, Gardner Minshew, Zack Moss, Isaiah McKenzie

The Colts have to feel good about landing both a quality head coach and a franchise QB last year, plus getting Jonathan Taylor inked to a long-term deal. Still, this offense still has some questions to answer. With plenty of cap space and a full complement of draft picks, they’ll have the firepower to do so.

Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson looks like he might be a franchise NFL QB, but there’s no question that he’s an elite option in the fantasy game. There’s no buy window open here. If you want to land him, you’ll be paying the iron price. Gardner Minshew is an unrestricted free agent who’s proven to be one of the best backup QBs in the NFL, and it’s possible he’ll find a home where a starting role is up for grabs. He’s an easy hold for dynasty gamers.

Running Back

Still just 25 years old, Jonathan Taylor has all the necessary ingredients to be a stud RB for the fantasy game. He’s got speed, power, a big contract, and plays on a promising offense. The one issue we’ve seen in the past two years is nagging injuries costing him games. He’s at least a hold as the PlayerProfiler RB No. 6 overall in dynasty, and there’s a case to be made that he’s actually a buy. A couple of the RBs ranked ahead of him are there more based on potential than on proven performance. Taylor is one of a small handful of RBs with RB1 overall in his range of outcomes.

Zack Moss is a free agent this year but he’s at best a hold. I’d sell him for a third in a heartbeat though as he’s going to be a bit lost in the shuffle in a year with so many big-name free agent RBs also on the market. Odds are he will have to claw his way towards the top of the depth chart no matter where he signs. Minnesota would be a fun landing spot though. For low-budget prospectors, Evan Hull had a bit of buzz last year before getting hurt in Week 1, and we’ve already noted that JT has his own problems staying healthy. Tyler Goodson is probably nearly free, and it’s worth asking for him as a throw-in to any deal.

Wide Receiver

The Colts can ill-afford to lose Michael Pittman to free agency, which means they’ll try to get a long-term deal done before March 5th. Failing that, you can bet the mortgage Pittman will get franchise tagged. Either way, count on him remaining with the Colts for at least another year. He’s fairly priced as PlayerProfiler’s dynasty WR16, so call him a hold. Josh Downs flashed at times in the first half of the season but try to pick up an early-to-mid 2nd round 2024 rookie pick for him. At that price, I’d take the opportunity to reset because if Downs has another uneven year in 2024, he’s going to become a roster-clogger. Alec Pierce isn’t getting you much in return so holding and hoping is probably your best strategy here. I think there’s a very good chance the Colts add to their WR room through free agency.

Tight End

Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson, Jelani Woods, Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Andrew Ogletree, Jordan Murray. The Colts have a TE for every day of the week. None of them are memorable and all of them are expendable in dynasty terms. The first four on the list have all had moments of usefulness, but unless you’re playing in a best-ball format, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze because it’s nearly impossible to predict in advance which one will be playable in any given week. I’d sell any or all of them if I got a remotely tempting offer.

Dynasty Buy: Jonathan Taylor
Dynasty Holds: Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew
Dynasty Sells: Josh Downs, All 37 Colts TEs

Jacksonville Jaguars

GM: Trent Baalke
Coach: Doug Pederson
Salary Cap Space Available: 11.6M (20th most)
Draft Slot: 17th
Draft Picks: 1.17, 2.17, 3.17, 4.14, 4.17, 5.17, 6.01, 6.17, 7.17
Unrestricted Free Agents: Calvin Ridley, Jamal Agnew, Brandon McManus, D’Ernest Johnson

The 2023 version of the Jaguars created more questions than answers in both real life and the dynasty game. Trevor Lawrence regressed instead of progressing. Calvin Ridley disappeared at times after a stellar first week. Nearly every skill player found a way to disappoint us. Yet there is still reason for optimism and perhaps some deals can be found. There’s not a lot of cap space available here, so any major additions to the offense are likely to come through the NFL Draft.

Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence is a screaming buy right now. As recently as last summer, Lawrence was a top-6 dynasty QB. Now? He’s grimly hanging on as a back end QB1. But if we take a moment to put last season in perspective, the picture becomes clearer. He endured a three-game stretch where Travis Etienne scored six rushing TDs. One of his top-3 WRs was missing for nearly every week of the season (first Zay Jones, then Christian Kirk). Then through the last weeks of the season, Lawrence himself endured a string of injuries (knee, ankle, head, shoulder) but refused to sit out as long as his team was still in the playoff hunt. Despite all this, he still finished at QB12. He hasn’t even turned 25 yet, so there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll bounce back strongly. His acquisition cost may never be this low again.

Running Back

Travis Etienne enters Year 4 of his career looking like the bell cow we hoped he could be. He increased his participation in the offense across the board…more rushes, more targets, and more touchdowns. He’s still a buy at RB 7 overall in our rankings as he finished last year as the RB3. Additionally, just like with Jonathan Taylor, a couple of the RBs ranked higher are more about potential and less proven than Etienne. Many (including me) had baseless fears last year that Tank Bigsby would work his way into a timeshare with Etienne.

Not only did that fail to materialize, but Bigsby fell out of the even mildly relevant role he had early in the season. It’s too early to give up on him completely, but there’s no need to chase him in your dynasty league. D’Ernest Johnson, who stole the backup role from Bigsby, is a free agent though. It’s quite possible he could return to the team on a reasonable contract.

Wide Receiver

The WR room in Jacksonville looked like a great source of points for fantasy teams with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones finally joined by Calvin Ridley. As noted above, things just didn’t quite work out as expected for that trio. Ridley looked lost once Zay Jones went out with an injury and dropped more than his fair share of passes. Christian Kirk suffered a season-ending injury, but even before that he provided a better floor than ceiling.

Ridley is a pending free agent that’s guaranteed to draw plenty of interest but definitely not guaranteed to return to Jacksonville, though it wouldn’t be a total shock if he did. He’s a firm hold as he’s entering the stage of his career where his production will outstrip his price. Christian Kirk is also a hold as he has a nice rapport with Lawrence. The sneaky buy here for contenders who need depth is Zay Jones, who is likely to get you similar production as Christian Kirk but at a deep discount in price.

Tight End

Who was the TE1 overall in TE-Premium leagues? Did you say Evan Engram? Not only is it true, but he’s also the glue that holds this entire passing game together. Anytime a WR misses time, Engram is there to benefit. He’s the TE7 in our rankings partly because he’s getting older but also because he’s not as flashy or exciting as some of the new toys we have to play with at TE. I’m buying all day at that price. Brenton Strange is the other TE with potential value here as he profiles as Engram’s possible replacement someday. If you’ve got the bench space, he’s worth holding through this year as Engram’s contract will be very cuttable in 2025 if the Jags are in a pinch on salary cap or if they believe Strange is ready to take over.

Dynasty Buys: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Evan Engram
Dynasty Holds: Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Brenton Strange
Dynasty Sells: Tank Bigsby (if you can find a buyer)

Check out Dan Williamson’s Dynasty State of the Union: AFC EAST Edition – Dynasty BUY, SELL, HOLD – Dynasty State of the Union: AFC East (playerprofiler.com)