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The Texans, Cardinals, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Bills will struggle to reach Vegas’ expectations.

Tyrod Taylor avoids turnovers at a Tom Brady-level. Ty Montgomery is the back to own in Green Bay.

Tyreek Hill finished as a top ten wide receiver in PPR last year, but he was the only wide receiver since 2000 to finish as a WR1 in fantasy football despite seeing less than 20-percent of his team’s overall target share and less than 10-percent of his team’s red zone target share.

Tyreek Hill does not have a clear path to significant volume. Hill saw just 105 targets in 2017, 22nd among wide receivers. The addition of Sammy Watkins via free agency means Hill has more competition for targets, potentially leading to fewer targets next year.

While Lamar Miller may be a fake bell cow that we should be cautious about in dynasty leagues, his 2018 value stems from opportunity. D’Onta Foreman is still working to get back onto the field after a devastating Achilles rupture in November. Foreman would not put a timetable on when he will be fully healthy, but when does return, expect Lamar Miller to stay on the field due to his pass catching ability.

Marshawn Lynch dominated the NFL in Seattle because he was so difficult to tackle in open space. In 2017, he was the best in the NFL at making defenders miss. Lynch posted a 43.6-percent (No. 1) Juke Rate and had 99 (No. 2) Evaded Tackles.  He can still play.

Christian Kirk checks more boxes than most second round picks. Tre’Quan Smith is the most underrated rookie wide receiver.

Justin Jackson will be a factor this season. Nyheim Hines should have a more productive career than Jordan Wilkins.

Andrew Luck may be the single most pivotal player in fantasy football this season, as his uncertain health dictates not just his deployment, but also the expected fantasy output for his entire supporting cast in the once-prolific Indianapolis Colts offense. While this uncertainty can be frustrating, it does afford savvy fantasy owners an opportunity to buy many of the pieces of this offense at a discount, including Luck himself.

With a new coaching staff that will rely on a quick-strike passing game and a number of new pieces added to the offense this offseason, the Colts are better prepared to attack defenses in 2018. With a healthy Andrew Luck under center, the Colts are primed to exceed current ADP point expectations and be the most pivotal team in fantasy drafts.

Former Texas Tech phenom Michael Crabtree should flirt with anywhere from 120 to 145 targets this season. Since 2015, among all wideouts with 120-145 targets, the average PPR output was 225.5 fantasy points, per Pro Football Reference, which would have been good for WR10 last season. 

Anthony Miller is what you might call a “veteran rookie.” He comes into the league at 23 years old, just four months younger than Amari Cooper. While this in theory may lead to a shortened career because older rookies hit their peak sooner, it also means that veterans rookies from Sterling Shepard to Cooper Kupp are ready to contribute immediately.

Rashaad Penny comes from San Diego State, which has become a running back factory. Meanwhile, Melvin Gordon is the ultimate enigma player in dynasty leagues.

Why dynasty leaguers should draft workhorse running backs in first round of a start-ups and rookie drafts, and Derrius Guice is a generational talent who should smash this year.

Nick Chubb was Saquon Barkley before Saquon Barkley at the college level. Had Chubb not torn his ACL in 2015, he projected to be the No. 1 running back drafted in dynasty rookie drafts in 2017. Fortunately, Chubb demonstrated pre-injury explosiveness by posting a 91st-percentile Burst Score at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Courtland Sutton doesn’t have the clearest path to year one relevance behind Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas but his talent is undeniable. His size adjusted athleticism and collegiate production profile him as a true X receiver in the near future.

How Ezekiel Elliott can rush for 2000 yards and 20 touchdowns. Corey Davis is somehow being drafted two rounds before Devante Parker.

Could Doug Baldwin lead the NFL in targets? Lower floor: Tyreek Hill or Mike Evans?

Over the years, this bias has collectively grown and overshadowed his positive qualities, however, it’s time to break away from the crowd and take a chance on the currently undrafted Jaron Brown, who is the ideal 2018 late round wide receiver prospect based on his advanced stats, metrics, and analytics player profile.

The Law of Conservation of Targets reminds that Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson signing with the Packers and Redskins freed up 178 targets, or 32-percent of the Seahawk’s total target share from last year. Even though the Seahawks had the opportunity to draft or sign a high profile wide receiver, they settled for Jaron Brown and the fossilized Brandon Marshall.