Sportsbook Rankings vs. ECR Wars | Week 6

by Elliott Troop · Betting & Props

Week 6 marks the first bye-pocalypse of the season, with fantasy-relevant players from the Vikings, Bengals, Lions, and Dolphins all unavailable for selection. We’re going to have to make some lineup decisions that don’t feel great this week. Hopefully, this week’s sportsbook-versus-experts battle offers some clarity.

Before we get into this week’s wars, let’s take a look at how last week played out. 

The scoring system is simple: closest to the final rank wins. I highlighted these players before Sunday’s games: 

Justin Herbert – Experts win

Alvin Kamara – Sportsbooks win

Josh Downs – Experts win

Dalton Schultz – Sportsbooks win

For the second consecutive week, we got ourselves a tie. Perhaps the sportsbooks learned a valuable lesson about predicting Josh Downs to do anything. 

Now, on to Week 6.

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Sportsbook Rankings vs Expert Consensus Rankings

Kirk Cousins | QB, Las Vegas Raiders

Sportsbook Rank: QB10

Expert Consensus Rank: QB15

The Kirk-aissance has been one of the most underrated stories of the season. Heading into the season, the prevailing feeling was that Kirk Cousins would play a handful of games before No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza would take the reins. The Raiders offense has looked better than competent, averaging the ninth-most points per game (26.4) — a significant improvement from last season’s league-low 14.2 points per game. 


In Week 6, the Raiders host the Super Bowl hopeful Buffalo Bills. Look, we all know about Josh Allen. So long as he is healthy, the Bills will remain in Super Bowl conversations. But the reality is that this defense is not good… again. The Bills have adopted an optional approach to defense, which makes for some fantastic fantasy football opportunities. 

Through five weeks, the Bills are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (22.5), the second-most passing yards per game (295.8) and the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers (45.1). That’s why the books have Cousins ranked as a low end QB1 on the week. 

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB, Washington Commanders

Sportsbook Rank: RB29

Expert Consensus Rank: RB23

The 2025 summer of Jacory ‘Bill’ Croskey-Merritt seems like a mere dot on the rear-view mirror. Collectively, it’s hard not to overreact to the tiny morsels of preseason coachspeak and padless walkthroughs after being starved for months of interminable silence. In the end, Croskey-Merritt had a solid yet unspectacular rookie season, logging 800 rushing yards without his starting quarterback for the majority of the year. 

Year 2 has gotten off to a fine, if uninspiring start. Croskey-Merritt ranks as the RB28. He has 239 rushing yards, 67 carries, and just seven targets. Crucially, over the last three weeks, Croskey-Merritt has seen his snap share decrease from 57% in Week 3 to 45% in Week 4 to 35% in Week 5 — that was despite logging his most efficient game of the season (11 carries for 82 yards) last week. 

That pesky Rachaad White led the backfield in snaps against the 49ers as Jayden Daniels rushed for over 100 yards. I found this development to be particularly interesting. White offers more than Croskey-Merritt in the passing game and, crucially, in pass protection — an important advantage with a mobile quarterback like Daniels. His presence gives the Commanders another way to keep defenses guessing, but it also threatens Croskey-Merritt’s workload.

The Commanders are 7.5 underdogs against a 5-0 San Francisco 49ers team which has fared middle-of-the-road when it comes to run defense (16th in rush yards allowed and ninth-lowest EPA/rush). Whilst the matchup isn’t a disaster, the books think that Croskey-Merritt is at risk of seeing his role reduced as the Commanders play from behind. 

MarShawn Lloyd | RB, Green Bay Packers

Sportsbook Rank: RB27

Expert Consensus Rank: RB19

MarShawn Lloyd saw his stock rise exponentially during the preseason. That was because Packers starting running back Josh Jacobs was charged with misdemeanor battery and misdemeanor criminal damage. Lloyd ended up going way higher than he should have in drafts based simply on the idea that he would receive a significant volume boost. Well, like a KFC bucket, just because you get a lot of it doesn’t mean it is good. 

Lloyd currently ranks as the RB37. He is averaging a paltry 2.8 yards per carry. The offensive line is doing no one any favors. The Packers rank 32nd in line yards, 32nd in run stuff rate, 32nd in EPA/rush and 31st in yards per carry. 


On Sunday Night Football, the stoppable force of the Green Bay Packers run game faces the moveable force of the Dallas Cowboys run defense. Through five weeks, the Cowboys rank first in yards allowed per play (6.4), first in explosive play rate allowed (11.9%) and first in rushing yards allowed (168 yards). The books are a little apprehensive about Lloyd in what looks to be a smash spot. His rushing-yard total is just 42.5, which ranks 25th among all running backs. He has a receiving-yard total of 10.5. That likely translates to single-figure fantasy points without a touchdown. 

Carnell Tate | WR, Tennessee Titans

Sportsbook Rank: WR17

Expert Consensus Rank: WR24

Cam Ward has been consuming far too much of my headspace in recent weeks. His struggles deserve more attention. Through five weeks, Ward has just one game in which he has logged over 200 passing yards. He has only three passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Ward ranks 36th in total EPA, 36th in pass success rate, 35th in EPA/pass, 31st in success rate and 27th in CPOE.  Owning Carnell Tate so far has been like owning a Ferrari without a steering wheel. You’ve got the car, but you can’t take it anywhere. 

Carnell Tate‘s Advanced Metrics

So, why the optimism around Tate? Well, I think it’s fairly simple. Last week was a tough spot. Facing the Texans certainly isn’t a smash spot for receivers. The Texans had just faced three of the preseason top-five projected offenses, three of the best quarterbacks in the league and arguably five of the top-24 receivers. Tate and  Ward are not that. But, Tate has proved already that he can get open. In Weeks 1-4, Tate ranked 11th in targets, 17th in TPRR, sixth in target share and second in air yard share. 

What’s more, the Titans get a potential get right game against a Colts defense which has given up the fifth most yards of offense per game (384.5). The books believe that Tate’s target earning will translate into fantasy production. 

Colston Loveland | TE, Chicago Bears

Sportsbook Rank: TE10

Expert Consensus Rank: TE17

My wife has started to commandeer our television every week to force me to watch The Great British Bake Off. No, it isn’t compulsory viewing for us Brits. Well, it is for me now. I was watching this week’s edition, and I couldn’t help thinking of Colston Loveland. When you’re baking a cake, if you take it out of the oven too early, it will sink. In hindsight, it looks very much like we took the Loveland cake out the oven wayyyyy too early. 

After five weeks, Loveland has been, pound for pound, one of the worst picks you could have made in your draft. The second-year man was the third tight end off the board and currently is the TE37. Evan Engram, Darnell Washington, Greg Dulcich, and even Kyle Pitts are averaging more fantasy points a game. 


But I think you can present a fairly compelling case to buy low on the Chicago Bears pass catchers. 

  •  Bears run game dominates in Week 1
  •  Brian Flores and rain in Week 2
  •  Caleb Williams was out in Week 3-5

Clearly, the sportsbooks are thinking along those lines in Week 6.  Williams will return as the Bears face a Falcons defense that has given up the sixth-most passing yards per game (248). Loveland has also been on the field for more snaps than any Bears pass catcher (312). Great news for anyone playing in points per snap leagues. Jokes aside, the books have Loveland as a top-10 tight end this week with the return of Williams. 

Elliott Troop is a fantasy football analyst for PlayerProfiler.

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