Featured Articles

Miles Sanders looks like a league winner. Deshaun Watson is the one quarterback worth chasing.

Aaron Rodgers going in the first round in any league format is beyond tragic. Josh Jacobs continues to be somehow overdrafted, while Derek Carr is being underrated.

DeAndre Hopkins is actually attainable in dynasty. Jimmy Garoppolo’s handsome factor is juicing up his dynasty values.

Get over it. JuJu Smith Schuster is No. 1 wide receiver in dynasty. Derrick Henry is a back to build around.

There are two main factors that go into locating a Late Round Tight End Roulette candidate: elite age-adjusted college production and exceptional weight-adjusted agility. Mike Gesicki’s 10.86 (99th-percentile) Agility Score ranks only behind converted wide receiver Derek Carrier and George Kittle in the PlayerProfiler database.

Mark Andrews smashed expectations in his rookie year. His 552 receiving yards were the fifth-most by a rookie tight end in the last decade. His 16.2 (No. 2 among qualified tight ends) yards per reception and 11.0 (No. 2) yards per target ranked only behind O.J. Howard.

Phillip Lindsay ended the season with a wrist sprain which required surgery. The Broncos should rightfully see this as a reason to dial down the diminutive back’s workload next season. Between a downtick in touches and the subtraction by addition known as Joe Flacco, Lindsay will struggle to be a valuable pick inside the first six rounds of fantasy drafts.

The biggest threat to James Conner will be Jaylen Samuels. Samuels played a mix of tight end and running back at North Carolina State but made the full switch to running back after joining the NFL. In his three starts for Pittsburgh, as a rookie, Samuels was targeted 12 times and went for 105 receiving yards.

The good news for J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is that his best comparable player is Keny Golladay. The bad news is that, regardless of how much the Eagles like him, a season similar to Golladay’s rookie outing (28-477-3) is his most likely outcome.

Damien Williams’ lack of prior production is a concern. He was an undrafted free agent in Miami who has yet to breakout or even top 50 carries in the NFL. Dating back to 2,000, nine backs who went undrafted produced a 200-point fantasy season six years into their careers.

Bell-cow running backs come at a high cost, usually picked in the first or second round of redraft leagues. But there are a handful of later-round players that could reach bell cow status due to injuries ahead of them or by winning the job outright.

As good as James Conner was in 2018, Jaylen Samuels had a better Production Premium and True Yards Per Carry than his teammate. He also had 26 receptions and never dropped the ball. Conner’s skills as a pass-catcher are limited, while Samuels’ skills are elite. Think of him as a bell cow-sized satellite back who has showed he can carry the load when called upon.

In three games without Melvin Gordon in 2018, Keenan Allen’s Target Share jumped from 28-percent to 34-percent. His PPR points per game jumped over five points, reaching 21.93. His weekly finishes in that stretch included a 34.8-point week as the number one receiver in Week 13. If he gets a chance to play a full season without Gordon, he could be an absolute monster.

Hunter Henry has been a very effective tight end when on the field. His 406 Air Yards earned in 2017 placed him third among TEs. He was able to convert those yards into 9.3 (No. 4) Yards Per Target, and he logged eight end zone targets in only 12 games, good for No. 16 overall. Henry’s presence didn’t have a significant impact on Keenan Allen’s production when they’ve shared a field in the past.

Dallas Goedert’s late-season breakout further lowered Ertz’s ceiling. Goedert was highly efficient while receiving a 54.7-percent snap share, evidenced by a 111.7 (No. 7) QB Rating When Targeted and a +21.5-percent (No. 6) Target Premium. Combined with Goedert’s breakout and Philly’s recent additions in the pass game, Ertz looks like a reach with his 25.6 ADP in early best-ball leagues.

Looking at PlayerProfiler efficiency metrics, Phillip Lindsay appears bound for regression. Despite recording 4.9 (No. 7) True Yards per Carry, Lindsay only notched 0.98 (No. 45) Yards Created per Carry. Coming off the board inside the top 50 picks, he remains a strong avoid in fantasy football.

The NFL has become a pass-happy league, and all of the sharp coaches are spasmodically calling for throws. Some secondary wideouts on pass-heavy offenses are still going way too late in fantasy drafts.

Donte Moncrief is an athletic freak that most have given up on after his first five pro seasons. But a case can be made that he’s in his best situation since gaining a starting role with Andrew Luck and the Colts.

The criteria for becoming a top quarterback in both real and fantasy football is changing. It’s no coincidence that the top 12 QBs in fantasy are running the ball over 50 times a season. Looking for this trait is a great way to find upside in a late round redraft pick.

Kyler Murray is going outside of the top 100 picks in FFPC drafts and outside the top ten at his position. In the back half of round eight, the risk of a year one flop is outweighed by the more likely scenario of year one dividends.