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If you’ve drafted a rookie QB, he’s either starting already or will be very soon. If you’ve got Justin Fields or Trey Lance, be sure you’ve grabbed a low-priced starter with a good early schedule to get you through the first few weeks. Guys like Teddy Bridgewater in Denver or even Sam Darnold in Carolina have easy enough opening schedules to get you through the first few weeks. Then expect your rookie QB to pay off soon, and for most of the season.

When other teams drafting before them (that also needed line help) reached on skill position players, it gifted the Lions with opportunity to select OT Penei Sewell at pick No. 7 overall, adding him to a line that is now top-half in the NFL. Yes, the Lions hired a caveman head coach in Dan Campbell. But they’ve embraced the rebuild. Their time will come. It might be early to move, but be prepared to pounce.

The majority of teams either miscalculated the value of the top players or held onto money for too long.  I was foolish to sit and watch Dadoggin1 snatch up Ezekiel Elliott for 72.9-percent of the projected RB1 value. Learn from my mistake by recognizing and attacking value when it presents itself. Studs and Studs is the best strategy to win in this environment. Yes, Studs and Studs. It is conceivable to build an entire starting roster with two RB1s, three WR1s, the TE1 and a WR1 in the flex. Scary.

A flexible, water-like strategy is the best way to handle auction drafts. Do not try to force a preconceived plan into the draft, but instead, understand the value as it presents itself and adapt to new information. If the room is afraid to spend money, then build a team of superstars. If premium players are flying off the board at astronomical prices, then let the high-upside WR2 and RB2 fall into your lap. Be water, my friend.

Why Chase Claypool is the WR to target in Pittsburgh. Watch Teddy Bridgewater outscore Ben Roethlisberger this season.

Derrick Henry and Patrick Mahomes are going too early in drafts. Targeting Antonio Brown over Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this year.

The Panthers boast D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall at WR. Moore and Anderson finished top 30 among qualified wide receivers in Fantasy Points Per Game last season and possess Speed and Burst Scores in the 75th-percentile or higher. Marshall has an alpha build and will face the Jets’ third corner. All in all, the Panthers receivers are set to feast in Week 1, and they may even be able to help Sam Darnold to fantasy relevance as well.

The Los Angeles Rams boast a top-tier defense headed by Aaron Donald. The Bears, meanwhile, are still (as of this writing) rolling out Andy Dalton week 1 behind a shaky offensive line that lost rookie tackle Teven Jenkins. While David Montgomery surged at the back half of last season, he won’t be set up for success with Dalton and an iffy o-line against Donald and company.

Mike Davis is clearly the RB1 in Atlanta, but Wayne Gallman should be treated as a high end handcuff with upside. Gallman flashed last season in New York, then signed into a crowded situation in San Francisco. When he was cut, he landed in an ideal spot. Is Davis really that much better than Gallman? I am not sure. If Davis goes down, Gallman would step into a high volume role with receiving work as well.

When Washington cut Peyton Barber, Jaret Paterson’s role was solidified. He is a deep league bench spot type player with upside. The UDFA put up gaudy numbers at Buffalo and now is the No. 3 RB to Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic. At 5-6 inches tall, Patterson is one of the shorter RBs in the NFL, but he showed rushing and receiving ability in the preseason. Ron Rivera compared him to Darren Sproles, and the Washington media has compared his abilities to Maurice Jones-Drew.

Welcome to my series on tournament daily fantasy sports for PlayerProfiler. The Pareto Principals will embark on an overview of each slate with an eye towards theoretical, structural analysis. I will apply that to an intriguing lineup concept to employ in DFS tournaments that week; with an emphasis on limited entry, small to medium field contests.

My ‘Pareto-inspired’ play-style works best in environments which reward a big-hit, small-miss mentality, that prioritizes macro-level process over micro-level selections. If that’s not you, I think this column will still be a useful read in terms of helping grow your mindset for DFS, fantasy football, and probability-based thinking in general. If that is you, then I encourage you to play along with me this season.

In a study by J.J. Zachariason, 54 running backs were drafted between Rounds 7 and 15 behind a top-12 running back from 2011-2017. Of those, 32 offered three or fewer top-24 finishes. This means a majority of the time you select a handcuff, you will have three or less useable weeks. That also includes games in which they score a random touchdown, or take over after a mid game injury when you would have left them on the bench.

Taking Alexander Mattison on a team with Ezekiel Elliott allows you the chance to stack hoards of receivers and an elite tight end, with the possibility of starting both Mattison and Elliott should Dalvin Cook get injured. That’s a team others cannot replicate or compete with. Drafting a handcuff to your own running back takes the possibility to benefit from chaos off the table. You can derive only benefit at your own expense.

Tyler Lockett is not your typical small slot receiver, even though he measures in at 5-10 and 182-pounds, since he has 28 receiving TDs over the past three seasons. Seattle looks like a team ready to throw the ball more frequently in 2021, and Russell Wilson is one of the best QBs in the entire sport. To finish as the WR1 in fantasy, a player needs the Target Share, the QB play, and touchdown variance, all of which Lockett has displayed in past seasons.

Are you ready for an A.J. Brown-level sophomore season from a true alpha prototype wide receiver? Like Brown, Bryan Edwards was the total package college prospect but somehow slipped out of Round 1. Like Brown, Edwards wins on the perimeter and inside. Like Brown, Edwards wins with air yards and YAC. Unlike Brown, Edwards only has a converted tight end who has yet to practice as his primary target competition. You have The Podfather’s permission to get excited.

A quarterback with a pass-catching running back is a contrarian stack that can net you serious points. Game Script plays a significant part. If the team has a separate third-down back or pass catcher, they will see an increase in snaps if their team is down or if the game is high scoring. Shootouts are matchups you want to attack, and grabbing the pass-catching back could separate you from competitors targeting the same game.

Most people think stacking players can only be players from the same team. However, rostering players from the same game on separate teams can optimize your fantasy points. Although it increases volatility, correlating players from the same game can net premium fantasy production. Figure out why you are playing specific stacks and find players on the opposing side who would benefit from said Game Script to maximize the lineup’s upside.

Keenan Allen is a total alien.

Why Justin Herbert is a next-level dude. Tyreek Hill’s speed is truly game breaking.