High Value Touch DFS Index – Week 3

by Mark Kieffer · Value Plays
najee-harris-fantasy-football

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

We are early in the season, one good game performance can sway results greatly. Derrick Henry, for example, had two carries inside the 10-yard line in Week 1 and came back with five carries inside the 10-yard line in Week 2, putting him second in carries inside the 10-yard line. Below are the top five values on the High Value Touch DFS Index and a few players that almost made the cut.

Top 5 Values:

5) Devin Singletary: $4,900 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 28.06 (No. 5 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 19.92 (T-No.6 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.5 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 43.33 percent

Devin Singletary Player Profile

Devin Singletary has three total touches inside the 10-yard line so far this season. His one target inside the 10, along with his price, put him at No. 5 on the list. At this point in the season, it says more about how bunched together so many running backs are than it does about Singletary. He has the same number of touches inside the 10 as Saquon Barkley, David Montgomery, and Chris Carson, but is $4,900 instead of in the $6,000 range as those players. With Zack Moss having a Red Zone Snap Share of 47.37 percent, and the sole goal-line carry of the season for the Buffalo Bills, Singletary’s upside may be limited. He has No. 9 among running backs with 77.0 rushing yards per game and provides a floor at a low price.

4) Cordarrelle Patterson: $4,600 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 29.89 (No. 4 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 19.92 (T-No. 6 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.5 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 55.56 percent

Cordarrelle Patterson Game Log

‘The analysis for Cordarrelle Patterson is similar to that of Devin Singletary. He has the same number of High Value Touches and is priced identical to Singletary. Patterson received all of his inside the 10-yard line work last week. Is this inside the 10-yard line work and red zone work something that we can expect from week to week, or is this just the story of one game early in the season? Either way, the two touchdowns definitely make this a spike week.  It is a murky backfield situation and I would tread lightly.

3) Mike Davis: $5,100 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 36.86 (No. 3 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 25.96 (No. 3 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.5 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 44.44 percent

Mike Davis Opportunity and Productivity Metrics

In the introduction to this week, Derrick Henry was the example of how one good week can boost you. Mike Davis is the other example. In Week 1, he one carry and two targets inside the 10 along with a 66.67 percent Red Zone Snap Share. He was ranked No. 2 in last week’s index. His Red Zone Snap Share is now 44.44 percent, and he received zero touches inside the 10-yard line in Week 2, yet is still No. 3 on our list. The two targets inside the 10-yard line are still tied for No.1  among running backs, and at a price in the $5k range, he is going to rank high. The inverse of the Patterson analysis holds here: what will the snap share look like in the Red Zone and inside the 10-yard line going forward?

2) Najee Harris: $6,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 37.27 (No. 2 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 27.47 (No. 2 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.5 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 88.89 percent

Najee Harris Opportunity and Productivity Metrics

Najee Harris was No. 1 last week in the index. He increased his Red Zone Snap Share to 88.89 percent, received one carry inside the 10-yard line in Week 2, got priced up by $300 on DraftKings and $1,400 on FanDuel. Because of the pricing, he is a much better play relative to the pack on DraftKings than FanDuel.  When a player is getting work inside the 10-yard line and inside the Red Zone, I want to have that multiple touchdown upside in my lineups.

1) Jonathan Taylor: $6,700 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 46.49 (No. 1 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 41.64 (No. 1 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 4.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.5 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 73.08 percent

Jonathan Taylor increased his per-game average of carries inside the 10-yard line with five in Week 2 after having three in Week 1. He is No. 1 in carries inside the 10-yard line. He was priced at $7,200 on both sites last week, and due to him increasing his carries inside the 10-yard line and his price coming down, he is now No. 1 in the index. The worry this week isn’t Taylor himself, but rather Carson Wentz, who sprained both ankles and seems unlikely to play in Week 3. With having a backup quarterback starting, will that hurt Taylor’s opportunity? On the flip-side, aTennessee is No. 13 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 106.5. He is definitely someone I will roster this week if I am playing multiple lineups.

Just Missed The Cut

DraftKings: Darrell Henderson (24.58), D’Andre Swift (23.71), Derrick Henry (23.60), Saquon Barkley (21.15), Damien Harris (20.71)
FanDuel: Darrell Henderson (23.02), Derrick Henry (20.93), Saquon Barkley (19.58), Nick Chubb (18.59), Alvin Kamara (18.31)

Final Thoughts

As we get further into the season, I am interested in seeing who breaks away from the pack. Jonathan Taylor is the clear-cut No. 1 and then the backs are bunched closer together as one good game carries weight early on. The players that “missed the cut” this week feature some studs such as Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, and Alvin Kamara. I would consider having all 10 players listed for each site in my player pool if playing multiple tournament lineups.

We will come back for Week 4 with an update to the index! Best of luck in Week 3!