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Tyler Lockett was incredibly efficient in 2018, scoring 10 touchdowns with nearly 1,000 yards despite only 71 targets. He was top-three in True Catch rate and Target Premium while leading all WRs in yards per target, Production Premium, fantasy points per target, and had a perfect quarterback rating when targeted.

Vance McDonald is healthy (for now) and is in prime position to receive a healthy target volume. He saw 73 targets in 2018. With Antonio Brown and Jesse James out of town and little else for target competition outside of Juju Smith-Schuster, that number is expected to go up substantially.

Following Kenny Stills’ departure, the Miami Dolphins find themselves with a starting wide receiver trio of DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, and Albert Wilson. Many project the Dolphins to finish among the league’s worst teams. With Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm and projected negative game script throughout the season, targeting Miami receivers brings hidden upside.

With Bruce Arians coming to Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers should remain near the top of the league in yards per game after finishing second in that category last season (415.5 yards per game). Dare Ogunbowale quietly brings fantasy upside in this offense after Barber recorded 39 red zone touches last year (No. 10).

What is Duke Johnson’s ceiling exactly? Devin Funchess or Parris Campbell worth drafting in a post-Luck world?

How many touchdowns this year for Eric Ebron aka Eric Enron? A top-5 all-time wide receiver season is in play for DeAndre Hopkins this year.

In college, Devine Ozigbo logged 49 total receptions for 10.0 yards per reception. With the NFL evolving, pass-catching running backs are top priority for teams. His preseason highlights show that he’s quickly put his receiving abilities to use, with his agility and hands being highlights for preseason viewers.

Ignoring his eighth-percentile Burst Score, Ryquell Armstead didn’t disappoint at the NFL Combine. At 5-11, 220-pounds, he logged a 4.45 (92nd-percentile) 40-yard dash and a 112.2 (94th-percentile) Speed Score. His strength in those metrics is kin to the lead-back in front of him, Leonard Fournette.

While playing for the Chiefs in 2018, Williams a 10-percent Breakaway Run Rate. Kareem Hunt, in the same offense, posted a 6.1-percent (No. 15) Breakaway Run Rate. Williams posted 1.33 (No. 11) Fantasy Points per Opportunity, similar to James White and Duke Johnson, showing elite RB pass catching skill.

It’s only fair to mention the fact that Duke Johnson is Miami University’s all-time leading rusher. He outperformed other Miami U grads such as Frank Gore, Willis McGahee, and even Lamar Miller. Johnson will be filling the shoes of a player in Miller who was top 20 in Weighted Opportunity and red zone touches.

This Darwin Thompson hype train is out of control. The conductor is drunk, the film-grinding passengers are partying like its 1999 and they are all headed nowhere fast. This happens every offseason and yet it is still shocking to watch history repeat itself. Fantasy analysts build insane amounts of hype for a lesser prospect, the ADP skyrockets, owners get burned.

In the preseason and at Utah State, Thompson has shown elusiveness and an ability to make defenders miss in space. His 6.8 yards per carry in college, which was third among Darwin’s comparable player pool, is evidence that he can gain yards with elusiveness despite his low Speed Score. The question remains whether he can translate those skills when playing against superior competition in full-speed NFL games.

While James Washington’s athletic profile doesn’t boggle the mind, his 18.4 (98th-percentile among qualified receivers) Breakout Age and 20.2 (94th-percentile) College YPR offer a glimpse into his probable usage this year. With Brown gone, Washington will be split out at ‘Z’ for the Steelers, playing that downfield burner role.

With only Mike Evans and hype rocket Chris Godwin above him on the depth chart, Breshad Perriman is ready to make a day one impact. The Bucs ran three-receiver sets 60-percent of the time last year, a top-10 mark in the league. Couple this with the fact that the their run game and defense are still big question marks, he can accrue big target numbers in Bruce Arians’ pass-happy offense.

Reggie Bonnafon’s athleticism indicated that he could have been a productive player in college if he wasn’t living in the shadow of Jackson at Louisville. His 89th-percentile Burst Score and 70th-percentile Agility Score give him a clear advantage over anyone behind Christian McCaffrey in Carolina’s backfield. 

Damion Willis is drawing some attention because he finished his college career strong at Troy. He recorded a 42.1-percent College Dominator Rating while maintaining 15.6 yards per catch. One good season of beating Sun Belt corners doesn’t make Willis an interesting option, even late in drafts.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling will return several big weeks and several duds, which works out well because the computer sets your lineup for you retroactively. His 117.6 (97th-percentile among qualified receivers) Speed Score alone warrants taking him over Geronimo Allison, who has an 84.7 (23rd-percentile) Speed Score.

The most telling sign that Courtland Sutton is the proper best ball pick over Emmanuel Sanders is that he posted a 14.6 (No. 19) Average Target Distance compared to 10.0 (No. 72) for Sanders. If the target quality evens out between the two, Sutton should return better value in best ball formats.

If we compare Mike Williams to someone like Dez Bryant, who actually made a career of being a TD scorer, Williams falls further behind. Dez Bryant, in college, was an absolute red zone destroyer. He had a year wherein he scored 76 percent of his team’s receiving touchdowns.

Mike Williams is not what he’s being sold to be. He’s not the next Dez Bryant. He had one season of  incredible TD variance. Rounds and rounds later Donte Monciref is a bargain. He showed potential to be a red zone weapon on the college field.