Welcome to the Week 11 DFS Cash Game breakdown and picks article! If you’re new to this article or DFS cash games, please check out my ’10 Rules to Live By’ article.
Week 10 was a tough one. We knew going into the week that there were some ugly chalk plays. The article was spot on and if you used the plays you likely cashed. At quarterback if you went with Dak Prescott you won. If you avoided the chalk running backs like I recommended you likely cashed. The margins these days are razor thin though. Even with a lot of hits, I missed the cash line on FanDuel by under 1 point. Geno Smith‘s last few passes at the end of the game sunk my battleship.
I did manage to easily cash on DraftKings with nearly the same lineup. The big difference was tight end. When the news came out that Robert Woods was active, I made a last-minute change to my FanDuel lineup swapping from Noah Brown and Trey McBride to Trenton Irwin and Evan Engram. I was feeling pretty good when Irwin scored an early touchdown. I felt less good after both Brown and McBride blew up.
My buddy Chuck Borris tried to tell me it was a mistake to swap out so late. Unfortunately, the legend of Bobby Trees struck fear in my heart. I’m joking of course but the moral of the story here is try not to overreact to news on Sunday morning. If you have a good process and feel good about your lineup, don’t let yourself get caught up in the moment before roster lock.
On to the Week 11 DFS cash game picks!
Week 11 DFS Cash Game Picks:
QUARTERBACK
Brock Purdy DK Only $5800
Welcome Brock Purdy to the DFS Cash game breakdown! This is a DraftKings only play given he is priced up quite a bit more on FanDuel. The thought here is really simple. We have a thin player pool this week at quarterback with our normal go to Jalen Hurts off the main slate.
The weapons the 49ers have at the skill positions are formidable. The added benefit Purdy gets by having players that are so talented after the catch is a nice boost. My only real concern for Purdy not paying off is a bunch of rushing touchdowns. You can block that by also playing Christian McCaffrey if you so desire but it is not required.
Justin Fields FD Only $7400
Our FanDuel only option this week is going to be none other than Justin Fields. Essentially, this is the reverse of Brock Purdy here. His price is lower on FanDuel, and he doesn’t have the amazing weapons that Purdy does, but he does essentially function as a running back. There is some concern the Bears will take it a bit easy with him in his first game back from injury with designed runs. However, when plays start to breakdown, he will do what is instinctual and that is take off and run.
Kyler Murray
FanDuel: $7600
DraftKings $6100
Returning from injury last week, Kyler Murray looked very good. He had a solid game and should only improve from here. We don’t have a lot of stats to point to for Murray with only one game under his belt. For the match up though, the Texans pass defense is coming in below average at No. 20 in DVOA.
The Texans have been involved in several shootouts now that C.J. Stroud has arrived. We could easily see another this week with the Cardinals pass defense rated No. 30 in DVOA vs the Pass.
Running Back
Devin Singletary
FanDuel: $6500
DraftKings: $5300
I missed the boat on Devin Singletary last week after his first week as a starter was a dud. He sure made up for it last week though with 23.1 fantasy points on a 161-yard performance. There is still some upside on the bone as he only had two targets and one reception in last week’s game. The matchup is strong as well with the Cardinals defense giving up 26.97 fantasy points per game (No. 30) to opposing running backs.
Christian McCaffrey
FanDuel: $10000
DraftKings: $9300
If you can fit him in, fire up McCaffrey this week. As mentioned in the QB section there is additional value in securing all of the 49ers’ points if you play Purdy. He will be much harder to fit in on FanDuel, but out of all the pay up options this week he is my favorite. Both his production and opportunity metrics are off the charts.
Christian McCaffery Opportunity and Productivity Metrics 2023
Of particular note, he is first among running backs with 48 red zone touches and second with 18.1 Weighted Opportunities per game. He has an insane 766 yards created (No. 1). The lists go on and on. Again, if you can fit him in, play him.
Other Running Back Thoughts:
Yet again Tony Pollard is popping up in projections across the industry. Yet again we will be fading Mr. Pollard. I don’t know what happened to him. He was an absolute stud last year and he started out the first couple games strong. He has since fallen off a cliff. Until he proves he is back, I will not be clicking that button.
Aaron Jones is in consideration, but I am concerned about his presence on the injury report and how involved A.J. Dillon has been lately. Austin Ekeler is grading out well, but if I am spending up that high, I want to try to get to McCaffery. On DraftKings it is definitely a week to look at four wide receivers, and I have even seen some two tight end builds that look solid.
WIDE RECEIVER
Tank Dell
FanDuel: $7000
DraftKings: $5900
Wide receiver this week is almost an exact copy of last week’s article, so things will be a bit shorter here. The three plays of Tank Dell, Marquise Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown are back. The only difference is Brown has been moved to DraftKings Only. FanDuel has jacked up his price while DraftKings only moved it by $100. Nico Collins appears to be trending towards playing this week. That is a knock-on Dell and gives me some pause on FanDuel. However, the matchup is much better this week than last. I am expecting a shootout, and the price is too good on DraftKings to pass up.
Marquise Brown DK ONLY $5300
We still haven’t seen the blow-up game for Hollywood. I expect it to come eventually.
With his decent floor keeping him as a viable play regardless, I want to be around when he does finally go off. This is the most likely week for it to occur given the matchup and Murray having a second game under his belt.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
FanDuel: $8900
DraftKings: $8800
There is no doubt St. Brown is a great play this week. The real question is if you are going to be paying up, do you want to spend a couple hundred more to get up to Tyreek Hill. The answer to that question will depend on your other lineup decisions but regardless St. Brown is a great play.
Amon-Ra St. Brown 2023 Game Log
He has not turned in a single dud this year and just went for 30 fantasy points last week on full PPR sites. With the talk in Miami over the Bye week centering around wanting to get Jaylen Waddle going, and the return of the explosive rookie Devon Achane, I am leaning towards St. Brown as my pay up option this week.
TIGHT END
Trey McBride
FanDuel: $5900
DraftKings: $5400
For the fourth week in a row Trey McBride is the go-to tight end in cash games this week. Since taking over for Zach Ertz, he has arrived as a top-level tight end. The floor is there with a target rate of 28.2-percent (No. 2) and 2.4 Yards Per Route Run (No. 2). The ceiling is there as well with two games over 20 fantasy points in his last four. He is a great play again this week in a matchup with the middling Texans defense.
Other Tight End thoughts:
On DraftKings, Pat Freiermuth is returning from injury and comes in at the salary minimum of $2500. That is tempting. However, with it being his first week returning from injury, Kenny Pickett playing terribly, and a down year for the Freiermuth in general, my current thought is to pass on him.
Donald Parham would be the next best option. With Gerald Everett out, Parham is a solid option at $3100. If McBride hadn’t been living in Smashville lately, it would be an easy decision for me to play Parham. Come Sunday if I need the salary, I don’t mind going there at all.
For FanDuel, the other option I would look at is Dalton Kincaid. He is 100 less than McBride and has been on a similar upwards trajectory over the last several weeks. At a minimum keep him in mind as a tournament pivot if he is projected at lower ownership come Sunday.
DEFENSE
Washington is projecting as both the highest raw points and value adjusted team in my model this week for Defense. I am going to have to manually override that. One issue is I don’t have adjustments for the defensive ends they traded away at the deadline. Particularly on FanDuel they are priced way too high. I spent a lot of time last week trying to force Dallas into my cash game lineups. I won’t make that mistake again.
On FanDuel, I like the Steelers at $4000 with Deshaun Watson out. I also like them on DraftKings at $3500, but if I need a few hundred more in salary I will be looking at the Jaguars at $3400 or the Dolphins at $3200.
Conclusion
If you don’t love your lineup this week, it might be a good week to slightly scale back your volume as we are getting closer to the end of the Byes. Once we get back to a full slate of games our edge for cash games gets quite a bit larger. Make sure your bank roll is fully stocked for the home stretch where we can really finish the season strong!
For tournaments this week I like Arizona and Houston game stacks. The Texans and C.J. Stroud have been printing money in tournaments for several weeks now, and I don’t see any reason that changes this week. With Kyler Murray’s salary still being depressed given he just returned from injury, there will be no better time to use that side either.
Good luck this week!
