NFL Week 11 Underdog Pick ‘Ems

by Ahaan Rungta and TREVOR TIPTON · Betting & Props

Welcome back to the 2023-24 Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em article series, your spot for finding the best-value weekly spots to pick whether players will go higher or lower than their projection. As usual, if you want weekly audio content for pick ‘ems, including getting in early on some lines that will move early in the week, check out the Pick ‘Em Power Hour every Wednesday and Friday with us hosts, Ahaan S. Rungta (@AhaanRungta) and Trevor Tipton (@FFCULater).

We are coming off yet another week with a winner as Ahaan’s two-pick entry cashed with ease, continuing a hot streak on the show and in these articles.

If you would like to tail our plays or create your own, join Underdog today with promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100% deposit match up to $100 USD upon entry. Here are our picks for Week 11.

Ahaan’s Week 11 Picks

Rachaad White (TB) HIGHER than 26.5 receiving yards

This is not the first time on the season we have attacked this spot. The receiving efficiency and role of Rachaad White has been elite. Last year, Baker Mayfield ranked No. 1 in the NFL in checkdown rate, so it is no coincidence that White has been a priority for the Buccaneers through the air. He has cleared this projection in five of nine games, three of five losses, and three of four games when running over 60-percent of the routes.

Tampa Bay is a 11.5-point underdog in Week 11. This suggests another pass-heavy script. San Francisco ranks No. 7 in pass rush win rate and No. 15 in pressure rate, so it makes sense that quarterbacks have had to find their checkdowns. The 49ers have allowed the No. 10-most targets per game and No. 9-most receptions per game to running backs, and we should see more of the same for White who has the ability to go for 50 receiving yards in spots like these.

Justin Herbert (LAC) LOWER than 259.5 passing yards

Keenan Allen (LAC) LOWER than 84.5 receiving yards

We are once again attacking a stack. This time we are fading a quarterback-wide receiver duo instead of backing them. If you want to learn more about increasing your payouts on Underdog pick ‘ems through stacking, you can check out our offseason article on pick ‘ems.

In Week 11, the Chargers face a Packers defense that ranks No. 18 in run stop win rate but have strength in the secondary. They rank top-ten in pass DVOA and PFF coverage grade and starting cornerback Jaire Alexander practiced on Thursday. This is a spot for Los Angeles to control the tempo of the game through the ground instead of relying on airing it out against a sturdy pass defense, especially with the Chargers being shallow in their pass-catching room.

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry

Herbert has stayed under in his projection in five of his nine games, and Allen has stayed under his projection in five of his nine games with one of the misses landing at exactly 85 receiving yards. The three games where this connection went off were against Tennessee (one of the NFL’s worst passing defenses), against Minnesota (another poor passing defense that played a close game), and against Detroit last week in a 79-point shootout. It is time to sell high.

Trevor’s Week 11 Picks

Austin Ekeler (LAC) HIGHER than 33.5 receiving yards

In the electrifying world of NFL matchups, one player who consistently stands out for his dual-threat capabilities is Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers. As the Chargers gear up to face the Green Bay Packers this week, all eyes are on Ekeler, a dynamic running back known for his exceptional receiving skills out of the backfield. In this article, we delve into the factors that suggest Ekeler is poised to surpass the 33.5 receiving yards mark against the Packers.

Ekeler is clearly the number two receiving option in Los Angeles with Mike Williams and Josh Palmer both missing time. Keenan Allen was injured in last week’s matchup, and at the same time the Packers are getting Alexander back in the secondary. He currently has 277 yards after the catch this season, and more importantly 12.59 yards after the catch-per reception. Ekeler has had eight, seven, and seven targets in his last three games. He should see even more this week. Green Bay is also giving up the No. 7 most receptions to running backs while allowing 6.2 yards per route.

All signs point to Austin Ekeler having a standout performance in the passing game against the Green Bay Packers. His proficiency in catching passes, the Packers’ vulnerability to receiving backs, the Chargers’ offensive game plan, and Ekeler’s recent performances and health collectively suggest that he is poised to go higher than 33.5 receiving yards. As the Chargers and Packers clash, keep a close eye on Ekeler who might just elevate his game to new heights in the aerial attack. 

Logan Thomas (WSH) LOWER than 3.5 receptions 

Logan Thomas, the versatile tight end of the Washington Commanders, has been a key target for their offense in recent weeks. However, as the Commanders prepare to face the New York Giants this week, there are several factors that suggest Logan Thomas may have a challenging time achieving more than 3.5 receptions in this upcoming game.

The New York Giants have been working diligently to improve their defense, and it’s evident in their performance this season. While their record may not reflect it, their defense has made significant strides. The Giants have bolstered their secondary and pass rush, making it tougher for opposing pass-catchers to find open spaces. This improved defense will make it challenging for Logan Thomas to get open and catch passes. The Giants have only given up 35 receptions to tight ends this season which is No. 3 best in the NFL. They are also the only team in the top 10 against TEs to play 10 games. 

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry

The Commanders currently have all of their wide receivers healthy, and this will help the lower side of the pick ’em for Thomas this week. Considering these factors, Logan Thomas faces a challenging matchup against the Giants. While his talent is undeniable, the combination of his recent form, quarterback dynamics, the Giants’ defensive strengths, Washington’s offensive strategy, and his opportunities all point towards him going lower than 3.5 receptions in this game.