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PlayerProfiler/RotoUnderworld Head Game Analyst and NFL Draft Analyst Cody Carpentier is back for more; now breaking down his NFL Mock Draft 5.0 in a short team-by-team series. Next up is Minnesota Vikings. If you want to see your favorite team, go to Twitter @CarpentierNFL and leave Cody a comment on what team you want to see broken down next.

I can’t express how much it hurts me to see the top prospect on my Top 300 Big Board drop to Pick No. 12. From Nick Fairley to Warren Sapp and Laremy Tunsil, sometimes guys fall for a number of reasons. The 11-15 range is where they land. Here comes the value of the draft. Minnesota doesn’t need EDGE as bad as they did a month ago, but you can’t pass up on Kayvon Thibodeaux’s talent.

Although many people love trade negotiations, others get intimidated and are risk-averse; fearing that their return may be perceived as the “loser” in the deal (which in dynasty is not a simple evaluation given that situations change every year, injuries happen, and values fluctuate). Thanks to smart people and technology, there are now numerous sites that host their own versions of trade calculators based on each site’s dynasty rankings.

Trading away young players that are perceived to be more valuable than what their profiles dictate, in exchange for depreciating assets with proven production, allows for more creativity in formulating trades with the additional assets acquired, or to rebuild a roster by acquiring future draft picks on top of proven talent that are past the age-apex curve.

The dreaded Tight End Wasteland is a term that has become all too familiar in fantasy football. It’s a place you never want to be, but also a place that can be hard to avoid. We can’t all be lucky enough to land a set-and-forget tight end. Even in eight-team leagues, chances are there’s at least a couple teams disappointed in their tight end week-to-week. So let’s take a look at some prime candidates for a solid season to help us avoid the tight end wasteland next year.  Let’s go ahead and start with the studs that you’ll have to draft a little earlier, but for good reason.

Mark Andrews was as consistent as it gets, and when he hit his ceiling, he won your week. Expect more of the same this season as well. Andrews led the Ravens, and the entire position, with a 26.6-percent Target Share last year. He’s the alpha receiver on the Ravens offense. With a healthy Lamar Jackson, there’s no telling how much higher Andrews’ ceiling can go. Two years younger than George Kittle and four years younger than Travis Kelce, Andrews has firmly set himself up to be a valuable fantasy tight end for years, and is PlayerProfiler’s TE1 in all fantasy formats.

The return of Jameis Winston to the Saints brings several different fantasy implications, not only for him, but for the team’s skill players. As a starter for New Orleans last season, Winston averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game with 14 passing touchdowns to just 3 interceptions in seven games. He also tacked on 166 rushing yards, showing he has the rushing potential to be impactful in fantasy. Winston had two top-5 weekly fantasy finishes in that time. However, he had four games under 15 fantasy points, showing he was a very volatile option on a Saints team with limited receiving options.

After releasing Cole Beasley, the Buffalo Bills went out and signed Jamison Crowder. Crowder (whose Best Comparable is Beasley) has spent the majority of his career as a slot receiver. Last season in twelve games, he took 334 (No. 17) Slot Snaps at a 66.8-percent Slot Rate. In Buffalo last season, Beasley had an 82.1-percent Slot Rate with Isaiah McKenzie filling in the slot as well. With Beasley out, Crowder’s role will almost certainly be as Josh Allen’s slot receiver, a position where Beasley saw over 100 targets each of the last three seasons.

Cooks is no stranger to producing in the face of adversity. He’s proved repeatedly no matter who is in charge of getting him the ball, he will produce. He’s posted six 1,000-plus yard seasons in eight pro seasons, doing so with four different teams over that span. Throughout his tenure, he finished the season outside the top 24 wide receivers in Fantasy Points Per Game merely once.

Brandin Cooks provides value in every league format, especially for those who prefer a Hero RB or Robust RB approach. The fact that he can be had after Tyler Lockett (ADP 46.5), Gabriel Davis (ADP 66.3), and Darnell Mooney (ADP 63.3) in Underdog is criminal. To make matters worse he is equally overlooked in dynasty leagues. He is currently being drafted as the 38th wide receiver off the board in dynasty startups, following aging and less opportune players such as Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett and Odell Beckham.

In this edition of Thinking About Thinking (Ranges of Outcomes), I continue my series addressing probabilistic fantasy football strategy. Each article I will unpack ways our brains work in irrational ways that create value in your fantasy football leagues. Last week I discussed analytical prospect models, and the importance of humility when evaluating rookies. If you haven’t yet, make sure to check that out to get a feel for this series!

In a ceiling scenario, Tua Tagovailoa is a top-12 quarterback this year with his new weapons, entrenching himself as Miami’s franchise quarterback. On the other hand, he could fail to meet expectations and carry precarious job security into 2023. Schrodinger’s Tua is both alive and dead, but his cost resides in purgatory. His market value is a compromise position between two plausible outcomes which attempts to balance them appropriately.

Consistency is highly sought after by many in the fantasy football community. Since it’s human nature to avoid risk, we feel more comfortable putting a player in our lineup if we know he’ll reliably score 12-15 points compared to a player ranging from 5-25 points. But is consistency a trait we can predict from year to year? Follow along as I use the power of statistics to better analyze the relationship between fantasy points and the consistency with which they’re scored. 

Mike Williams in 2021 finished as the WR14 in PPG by averaging 15.4 PPR points per game, but conversations about his outlook in 2022 are centered on his inconsistent production. His six games with more than 20 PPR points and seven games with fewer than 10 PPR points are worrying many drafters, yet his CV only checked in at 0.687, on the slightly inconsistent end of our “average” bucket. History would suggest that Williams’ CV will improve and he is likely to stay productive in fantasy.

Round 3 (Picks No. 65-105) No. 65 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Roger McCreary, CB – Auburn No. 66 – Dallas Cowboys – Breece Hall, RB – Iowa State No. 67 – New York Giants – Jalen Tolbert, WR – South Alabama No. 68 – Houston Texans – Isaiah Spiller, RB – Texas A&M No. 69 […]

Fantasy football is obsessed with “alpha” receivers who look dominant and can make monster contested catches. However, this provides an opportunity to find cheaper alternatives that will outperform ADP and ultimately help win leagues. Targets score fantasy points. And these receivers have “alpha” production, while coming at “beta” price points. 

Brandin Cooks is consistently overlooked in the fantasy football community, and size is a big reason. 2021 was quietly a career year for Cooks, in which he posted highs in targets and receptions. Davis Mills also flashed in his rookie season, and will pay dividends for both the Texans offense and Cooks if his development continues in 2022. It also helps that Cooks is an elite-athlete who has 4.33 (98th-percentile) speed and a 98th-percentile Agility Score. 

Brad Holmes spent 8 of 16 seasons with Les Snead in Los Angeles, and I would be doing this wrong if I didn’t remind folks what happened during Snead’s first draft back in 2012 while holding the No. 2 overall pick. If not at number 2, the Jets are another spot to look for Atlanta or Seattle to move up.

The benefit of trading away a franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson is reaping the reward with draft picks, and building from within.. the correct way to rebuild a franchise, Evan Neal and Jordan Davis in Round 1 is a smash.