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Touchdown regression is a good way to spot trap players in fantasy football. Players who score at a high rate relative to their usage should be faded at all costs. Meanwhile, players such as Ezekiel Elliott, who didn’t score enough, should bounce back.

The advanced metrics indicate that backs like Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay are going to score far fewer touchdowns in 2019. On the other hand, Ezekiel Elliott scored 2.4 touchdowns below expectation. He is primed to score more based on his high-leverage usage, making him one of the safest fantasy football picks.

Josh Allen possesses elite rushing ability that provides a safe floor, doesn’t shy away from the deep ball – his 65 attempts ranked No. 13 – and has a legitimate shot at finishing top-5 at the position. But despite that, his ADP is QB20. Allen’s willingness to throw downfield benefits teammate Robert Foster, whose advanced stats and metrics profile suggest he’s primed for a breakout.

A true rushing QB, Cam Newton ranked in the top-five at the position in 2018 with 101 (No. 2) carries, 488 (No. 4) rush yards and four (No. 5) rush TDs. He’s a lock to return top-10 value with QB1 upside. Despite missing the first four games of 2018 after having a procedure done on his heart, Curtis Samuel showed a nose for the end zone. His five receiving TDs ranked second on the team.

The latest training camp news should put to rest any concerns that fantasy gamers have with Parris Campbell. Film grinders pointed to Campbell’s low depth of target as a reason to liken him to a gadget-player, but Frank Reich doesn’t care about highlight-reel watchers.

Last season, Kenyan Drake didn’t command the majority of Miami’s carries, but he did dominate the fantasy points produced from their backfield. Now, early signs are pointing to a committee between Drake and third-year back Kalen Ballage.

Team stacks have been proven to win people millions of dollars. In fact, 79% of DraftKings “Millionaire Maker” winners have used this strategy. This means you need to find undervalued fantasy QBs and pair them with underrated teammates.

Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are primed to exceed value with new head coach Bruce Arians calling the shots. Winston has shown a willingness to hurl the ball deep, finishing top-5 in Air Yards Per Attempt in each of the last three seasons.

Jared Cook enjoyed a career year with Derek Carr in the midst of Amari Cooper’s departure and general dysfunction. Cook joins the the Saints who attempted a mere 33.7 (No. 29) pass plays per game last year, Brees had 93 red zone attempts. Guess who had a 26.3-percent red zone target share and an insane 32–percent end zone target share in 2018? None other than The Cook, baby.

Devin Funchess is a great pick in the mid-to-late rounds of redraft and best ball leagues. His spiked weekly touchdown upside is as high, if not higher, than receivers being selected around him such as James Washington, D.K. Metcalf and TreQuan Smith.

Outlining the radical philosophy shift in Arizona. Forces are aligning for Dalvin Cook to smash this year.

The Eagles easy schedule should help to propel Miles Sanders this season. If Seattle’s defense tanks, will Russell Wilson be unlocked?

Is the fantasy world sleeping on Tony Pollard and Jordan Scarlett? Why on earth is Le’Veon Bell being drafted as if he’s not a Jet?

FLASHBACK: Elijah McGuire was a league winner? Sam Darnold is good and there is still time for Quincy Enunwa to break out.

Justice Hill has league winning upside. Playing for a team who could lead the league in rush attempts, and behind an aging Mark Ingram, Hill will see early opportunity. Ingram hasn’t had over 52.4 -percent of his team’s RB Opportunity Share in the last two years. Hill has displayed catch passing skill and elite break away potential with his 4.4 40-yard dash 97th percentile speed.

When Hill’s speed and athleticism are put on display that discount will evaporate. His success is not dependent on an Ingram injury. If it just turns out that Ingram is at a place in his career where he’s most effective with 40-50 percent of the work Hill will be relevant.

Jaylen Samuels poses a real threat to James Conner’s passing downs work and is a much better athlete. At 6-0, 225-pounds, Samuels possesses a 105.9 (83rd-percentile) Speed Score with a 119.2 (53rd-percentile) Burst Score and 11.21 (72nd-percentile) Agility Score. In comparison, Conner lands in the 63rd-, sixth-, and 18th-percentiles, respectively.

In the two seasons Mark Ingram shared a backfield with Alvin Kamara, he averaged 14.75 fantasy points per game. Latavius Murray is a more explosive version of Ingram and an elite goal line bacl. There is a good chance he tops that weekly average. Since entering the league in 2014, Murray’s 25 rushing touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line rank fifth among all active RBs.

Over his injury-plagued career, Jordan Reed has averaged nearly seven targets a game for a seasonal pace of 112 targets, and an average of .38 touchdown catches per game. That works out to about six touchdowns per season. Best of all: he costs nothing in redraft.

Maybe Jimmy Graham is simply and plainly washed. Maybe all the injuries and subsequent surgeries have taken their toll and he’s never again going to be the machine sent from the future to score touchdowns. But it’s hard to ignore the discrepancy between his 2018 touchdown rate and his career numbers, bolstered by otherworldly touchdown production in New Orleans.