Featured Articles

Cam Akers is finally making a case to break the committee approach in Los Angeles and see more of a workload. The Florida State rookie’s Snap Share has been all over the place this season, but his 21 carries on Sunday to Darrell Henderson’s three and Malcolm Brown’s three was a huge step in the right direction. Akers will be pretty hands-off against a ferocious Patriots defense that just blanked the Chargers, but he needs to be started against the Jets and Seahawks in the final weeks of the season.

The highest-total game on the slate didn’t disappoint, but the vertical assault came from Baker Mayfield and not Ryan Tannehill. The Browns rematch with the Ravens next week in primetime (COVID-willing, of course). In Week 1, the Ravens crushed them 38-6. Expect Baker to keep the Browns upright this time, and stacking him with one of his under-priced receivers such as Rashard Higgins or Donovan Peoples-Jones will be a GPP-friendly strategy.

Josh Jacobs’ absence from Sunday’s game opens the door for Devontae Booker. For his part, Booker has been involved in about every game in some capacity. The 28-year old even has a couple of double-digit point games. However, this Sunday he’ll see the bulk of the workload and will pay dividends. In limited action this year, Booker averages 5.1 (No. 2 among qualified running backs) True Yards Per Carry and 5.6 (No. 10) Yards Per Touch.

With Mark Andrews out in Baltimore, the newly acquired Luke Willson has an opportunity. It might be a one week thing, but with Lamar Jackson returning to the lineup Willlllllson is sure to see work. Forget not the man’s profile, no matter how long he’s been away from relevancy. It is loaded with intrigue.

Coming off his best game of the season, T.Y. Hilton matches up with Phillip Gaines, the third-worst ranked cornerback on PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings. Hilton has back-to-back games with 70-plus Air Yards after totaling 73 from Weeks 6-10. It’s easier to convert Air Yards into receiving yards when Hilton is covered by a backup thrust into the starting lineup than it is against his Week 11 primary coverage, Jaire Alexander.

With 19 (No. 7 among qualified wide receivers) Deep Targets and a +10.2 (No. 23) Production Premium, fantasy football managers can be assured that the targets Tim Patrick receives produce quality fantasy football points. Charvarius Ward, his projected primary coverage for Week 13, struggles at preventing big plays. His 14.6 Yards Per Reception Allowed, 9.0 Yards Per Target Allowed, and 112.2 Passer Rating Allowed are outside the top-55 qualified cornerbacks.

Kareem Hunt’s opportunity numbers are inflated by the time that Nick Chubb spent on IR, but he has still received double digit carries in every game this year. The matchup against Tennessee’s lackluster defense is intriguing as well. They have given up an average of 1.56 points above expectation at the running back position this year. It is hard to trust a secondary back without stellar receiving volume at $6,300 in cash, but Hunt is a great upside play for tournaments.

David Montgomery ranks top 10 in Opportunity Share with a large sample of games played, yet is priced among secondary and part time backs. He has a true featured role in the Chicago offense. In a plus matchup against the Lions, Montgomery is a near lock in cash with his touch volume. He is still a risk in tournaments as it is hard to envision high boom potential for any player in a Mitchell Trubisky-led offense.

Devontae Booker has flashed consistent efficiency while also sporting elite explosiveness with a dominant college profile. Given what he’s shown this season and the state of the Raiders backfield, he will dominate touches against a lifeless Jets team. New York is more of a pass-funnel defense, but Las Vegas is an 8.5-point favorite. They’ll dominate Game Script and Booker will be involved throughout the game. He opens up salary on a tight slate and projects extremely well.

Denzel Mims’ signature breakout game is coming. The speedy rookie has now seen eight targets and over 100 Air Yards in three straight games. He also has a 26.4-percent (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and a 38.6-percent (No. 8) Air Yards Share despite only five career NFL games played. It’s been tough sledding for Mims against the Patriots, Chargers, and Dolphins over the last three weeks, but now he draws the Raiders.

Typically we stay away from bad teams in props or fantasy, but this week there are only a few strong games to play. In Week 13, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman bring upper 90th-percentile Speed Scores up against a battered Las Vegas Raiders pass defense. Missing star safeties Johnathan Abram, and Lamarcus Joyner, and with both starting cornerbacks riding the injury report each of the last two weeks, expect Mims and Perriman to close in on 200 yards between them.

The Podfather’s Prop of the Week comes from Miami in Week 13, featuring the 2020 NFL Draft’s top two picks from the Dolphins and Bengals. Unfortunately, neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Joe Burrow will play on Sunday. Instead, we will see a battle between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Allen, where The Podfather sees the Dolphins defense putting the clamps on Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. 

D.K. Metcalf makes his first appearance on the Air Yards Value Index after balling out in an island game on Monday night to the tune of 10 receptions for 177 yards. Metcalf saw over 207 Air Yards last week. His ascension in the Seahawks passing game is happening. However, he faces a tough projected matchup in Week 13 against the Giants and James Bradberry. It will be interesting to see if he continues to be fed the rock despite this tough matchup, or if Russell Wilson focuses his attention toward Tyler Lockett.

Darius Slayton’s demise post Sterling Shepard’s return reached the lowest of lows last week. Slayton, despite 63 Air Yards, finished the week with zero fantasy points. With Giants backup quarterback Colt McCoy expected to start, things may not be looking up for Slayton anytime soon despite his Air Yards totals. However, with the Giants likely facing a negative Game Script against the heavily favored Seahawks, he may find himself some garbage time Air Yards and fantasy points.

Antonio Gibson tops all 2020 drafted RBs with a 122.8 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) Speed Score; top 10 overall on PlayerProfiler.com. It’s no surprise that when he handed a larger workload in Week 12, he produced high-end RB1 numbers. The 22-year-old gains 19.79 Lifetime Value points, the most of all RBs, to move from RB14 to RB11 in the dynasty rankings.

In nine games, Matt Breida has 47 carries for 168 yards, averages 3.6 (No. 62) True Yards Per Carry, and has nine catches for 96 yards with no touchdowns. He now finds himself on the reserve/COVID-19 list. It’s unfortunate timing. The Dolphins are shorthanded in the backfield with Washington now sidelined by a hamstring injury. Breida’s stock continues to fall with his ranking dropping from RB65 to RB80 over the past two weeks.

Brandin Cooks has seen 57 targets over the last seven games, averaging six receptions and 83 yards per game over that stretch. This game against the Colts has an over/under of 51.5 points, opening the door for a ceiling game from Cooks. At $5,600, he presents massive upside compared to the guys near his price point.

Michael Pittman will continue to operate as the Colts’ No. 1 wide receiver against a Texans secondary that has allowed the 10th-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. This game is tied for the highest projected point total of the week, so the chances of it shooting out are high. Assuming Pittman gets back to the efficiency we saw prior to Week 12, he will deliver his best performance to date. At $4,900, we can’t pass on that type of upside. 

With the opportunity he’s seen, Justin Jefferson rocks a +43.2 (No. 3 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium, 12.8 (No. 1) Yards per Target, and 0.57 (No. 6) Fantasy Points per Route Run. Kirk Cousins also ranks highly in the efficiency metrics with a +30.0 (No. 2) Production Premium and 8.6 (No. 2) Yards per Attempt. With the increased passing volume paired with the continued efficiency, it provides reasons for optimism for Jefferson as a locked-in WR2 moving forward.

Jerry Jeudy ranks No. 77 with a -17.8 Production Premium, which makes sense when we consider the opportunities, production, and efficiency. Although he lacks efficiency, his opportunities have trended up over the past five games. Overall, Jeudy’s production moving forward relies on volume moreso than efficiency, and Drew Lock’s inefficiencies negatively impact Jeudy’s productivity.