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The San Francisco 49ers are rolling and looking to ride into the playoffs on a high note. Jimmy G has been playing solid football, leading George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel to fantasy success. Jeff Wilson showed he’s more than capable of filling in for Elijah Mitchell. They come into the day obvious favorites against the struggling Titans.

The Titans are depleted and falling apart. The team has been ravaged by injuries, forcing D’Onta Foreman and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to take on significant roles. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both look to return tonight, but their upside is limited with how badly Ryan Tannehill has been playing. The Titans find themselves, rightfully, as home dogs in an uphill matchup.

With one of the better fantasy matchups for an RB this week, David Montgomery is set to produce for the fantasy playoffs. Despite looking better recently, the Seahawks rush defense is among the worst in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. They allow a lot of catches to RB/FBs, giving up 5 or more receptions to opposing backfields in each of their last eight games (not including Week 15’s Tuesday night game). Montgomery has three straight games with at least five targets and has an excellent opportunity to boom this week.

The Miami running back room looks murky. Myles Gaskin did play last week, but it was… Duke Johnson (!) who got the most touches out of the Dolphin RBs. Gaskin has been the lead back for the majority of the season and was coming off a COVID absence last week. However, the insertion of Johnson and a tough opponent in the Saints cloud Gaskins’ usage. Both player’s usages look clouded as of now, and they face a tough matchup for this week of the fantasy playoffs.

We’ve recommended Gabriel Davis for several weeks now, and he continues to come through with fantasy contributions. Davis had one of the best performance of his career with five receptions for 85 yards, and two TD catches. He now has four TD catches in his last three games and 15 targets over his previous two games. He looks to be part of the Bills weekly game plan down the stretch and he has the trust of Josh Allen. Davis can be treated as a WR3.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is almost assuredly rostered, but if he is somehow available, be aggressive as you can in adding him. He is the midwest version of Hunter Renfrow, and has become the focal point of Detroit’s offense. ARSB is heating up and is a player whose stock should rise this summer in dynasty. Craig Reynolds continues to be a Cinderella story for Detroit. The 25-year-old seemingly came out of nowhere in Week 14, and this past week saw a bell cow-like 26 carries for 101 yards as Detroit convincingly upset Arizona. This week, Reynolds has a plus matchup against Atlanta.

Offseason best ball debates raged on about whether maximizing advancement or ‘super-teams’ was a stronger strategy. While this divide played out on the margins, it is front and centre in playoff best ball. The inclusion of two first round byes adds a layer complication to the strategy. If you stack both bye-teams you are virtually drawing dead to advance past round one, with even one bye-stack hurting your odds.

In general, I think 1QB or 2QB builds are viable. If your quarterback’s team is unlikely to receive a bye, you are likely reliant on them playing four games to win the tournament anyhow. Given you likely drafted three of his skill players, I think it is reasonable to say your team is so reliant on him having strong fantasy production each game anyhow, pairing him is redundant. However, it comes down to a cost, benefit analysis.

The Minnesota Vikings are still in the playoff hunt and need a win to stay alive. Kirk Cousins has been accurate and productive, leading the league in Money Throws. He has pushed Justin Jefferson past the 1200 receiving yard mark already, and now supports K.J. Osborn in place of Adam Thielen. As always, Dalvin Cook dominates backfield touches and continues to smash through defenses.

The Chicago Bears are still a dumpster-fire, but a prettier looking one. Justin Fields is improving and showing a Konami skillset, but the only receiver he has made fantasy relevant has been Darnell Mooney. Allen Robinson sees a healthy Target Share, but hasn’t been able to convert on the opportunities. On the ground, David Montgomery looks to repeat his fantasy performance of 2020.

Mad Caps… Round one of the Fantasy Football Playoffs is here!!! Yet, the excitement is dampened thanks to a plethora of positive Covid tests. Omicron? How about Omi-gone? Given the state of things, that’s wishful thinking. While news is still trickling out pertaining to the Covid-racked contests, The Infirmary is here to get managers ready for Sundays action.

D.J. Moore has averaged almost 15.0 Fantasy Points Per Game since Cam Newton’s return as starter. He is the primary option for Carolina to move the ball in the passing game and has not yet hit his ceiling as he is seeing at least seven targets per game and is averaging over 100 Air Yards the past three weeks. Moore, even against a tough Buffalo secondary should find himself on your roster regardless of format.

Michael Gallup squeezes onto the list again this week in favor of an uninspiring Tim Patrick (DK: $4,500). He simply has more upside and needs to be mentioned. Gallup was a big play away last week from a huge fantasy day, and is averaging 109 Air Yards over the past four games. His floor during this time has been a respectable 12.65 fantasy points. The boom week is coming. You have been placed on notice.

Jaylen Waddle is on the COVID-19 list, priming Mike Gesicki to smash the OVER on his Underdog Fantasy line this weekend. Gesicki already sees 6.8 (No. 3 among qualified tight ends) Targets Per Game and he will surely benefit from Waddle’s vacated 8.9 Targets Per Game. Consequently, Gesicki’s 25.3-percent (No. 5) Air Yards Share has no where to go but up. He has hit 46 receiving yards in eight out of thirteen games this season and he’ll certainly hit the OVER against the Jets on Sunday.

Everyone has the Bills projected to crush the Panthers today and that can make it tempting to take the OVER on this line. However, Stefon Diggs will find it difficult to produce against one of the leagues best cornerbacks, Stephon Gilmore. A quick glance at Gilmore’s player page on PlayerProfiler.com shows that he has allowed only 2 receptions since joining the Panthers in Week 10. Diggs has hit the OVER on this line in four out of 13 games this season. Now is the time to hit the UNDER.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

This is a tough week to find good reliable values in the index. The guys that are the best values in this index have the touchdown scoring upside but also have the upside of putting up zero points. Myles Gaskin is the only player on the list that has a trustworthy floor, the others have multiple touchdown upside but also have zero point downside.
 

George Kittle will be massive chalk, but has broken the slate in back-to-back weeks. His 40-percent Target Share in Weeks 13 and 14 are likely an outlier, but his normal Target Share outside of those weeks was still a healthy 21-percent. I believe this game is the biggest blowout on the slate and would be open to running some three-plus player stacks on the 49ers side of the ball.

Regardless if Chase Edmonds is activated from IR, James Conner is still very much in play. The Cardinals have a slate-high 30-point implied team total and some of that should be expected to be earned on the ground. The Lions rank No. 10 or worse in Rushing Yards Allowed (135/gm/avg), Rushing TD Percentage (41-percent), and aFPA (No. 4). He makes for a nice one-off too if you’re fading Kyler Murray in a lineup or two.