Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 15

by Edward DeLauter · Value Plays
dj-moore-fantasy-football

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score. The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.

For this week we will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards Value Plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings. 

Paying Up

D.J. Moore  – DK: $6,000

Air Yards Value Score: 90.14

Air Yards: 1,281 (No. 7 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 40.4-percent (No. 3)
Unrealized Air Yards: 682 (No. 4)

D.J. Moore has averaged almost 15.0 Fantasy Points Per Game since Cam Newton‘s return as starter. He is the primary option for Carolina to move the ball in the passing game and has not yet hit his ceiling as he is seeing at least seven targets per game and is averaging over 100 Air Yards the past three weeks. Moore, even against a tough Buffalo secondary should find himself on your roster regardless of format.

Brandin Cooks – DK: $$5,800

Air Yards Value Score: 79.59

Air Yards: 1,103 (No. 16)
Air Yards Share: 40.0-percent (No. 6)
Unrealized Air Yards: 471 (No. 22)

Brandin Cooks returns to the Paying Up Section this week even after a posting a WR13 finish last week when he saw 11 targets, logging eight receptions for 101 receiving yards. Up against a hapless Jaguars secondary, Cooks is likely to feast and at under $6,000, he makes for a great value play in all formats.

Top-10 Value List

No. 10) Michael Gallup – DK: $5,500

Air Yards Value Score: 29.67

Air Yards: 521 (No. 60)
Air Yards Share: 29.9-percent (No. 30)
Unrealized Air Yards: 265 (No. 59)

Michael Gallup squeezes onto the list again this week in favor of an uninspiring Tim Patrick (DK: $4,500). He simply has more upside and needs to be mentioned.

Gallup was a big play away last week from a huge fantasy day, and is averaging 109 Air Yards over the past four games. His floor during this time has been a respectable 12.65 fantasy points. The boom week is coming. You have been placed on notice.

No. 9) Sammy Watkins – DK: $4,100

Air Yards Value Score: 35.32

Air Yards: 631 (No. 48)
Air Yards Share: 22.1-percent (No. 52)
Unrealized Air Yards: 334 (No. 44)

Sammy Watkins looked like he was taking the lead over Rashod Bateman and the rest of Baltimore’s ancillary receivers. However this past week, he posted a fantasy doughnut, scoring zero points on only two targets. He still saw 44 Air Yards however, he is extremely volatile especially with Tyler Huntley throwing him the football this week.

No. 8) Christian Kirk – DK: $5,300

Air Yards Value Score: 38.76

Air Yards: 801 (No. 34)
Air Yards Share: 24.5-percent (No. 52)
Unrealized Air Yards: 227 (No. 69)

Christian Kirk looks like the prime beneficiary of DeAndre Hopkins‘ season ending injury. During Weeks 9 through 11, when Hopkins was unable to play, Kirk averaged six targets per game and double digit fantasy points. He makes a great value play in all formats this week, however, I would prefer him as a cash play rather than a tournament play based on A.J. Green‘s recent play which we will discuss a bit later in the article.

No. 7) Kenny Golladay – DK: $5,300

Air Yards Value Score: 41.28

Air Yards: 726 (No. 45)
Air Yards Share: 28.8-percent (No. 32)
Unrealized Air Yards: 403 (No. 33)

Kenny Golladay was suppose to be quarterback proof; remember David Blough? Unfortunately this season, he has been far from this. He had his worst game of the season last week with Mike Glennon under center, scoring only 3.5 fantasy points despite seeing 8 targets and 128 Air Yards. However, with this type of volume, Golladay’s fantasy production could turn around, making him a uber-contrarian tournament play.

No. 6) DeVante Parker – DK: $4,300

Air Yards Value Score: 48.14

Air Yards: 562 (No. 54)
Air Yards Share: 35.2-percent (No. 16)
Unrealized Air Yards: 235 (No. 66)

How is Devante Parker priced at $4,300? This seems like a glitch in the matrix. Prior to Miami’s bye last week, Parker looked like his old self prior to injury, scoring 11.2 fantasy points on 5 targets and 60 Air Yards. This was surprisingly his lowest scoring output the past three games he has played. He headed for chalk status at this price point.

No. 5) Robby Anderson – DK: $4,800

Air Yards Value Score: 48.45

Air Yards: 840 (No. 32)
Air Yards Share: 26.5-percent (No. 45)
Unrealized Air Yards: 565 (No. 13)

Robby Anderson had the boom week that only the the truthers saw coming, of which, Matt Rhule must be one of them.

In the first game since Joe Brady’s departure, Anderson saw 124 Air Yards, his highest Air Yards total since Week 4. Because of this usage, Anderson is worth a dart thrown in the event this is a permanent development in the Panthers passing attack.

No. 4) A.J. Green – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 50.94

Air Yards: 862 (No. 30)
Air Yards Share: 27.7-percent (No. 39)
Unrealized Air Yards: 324 (No. 47)

A.J. Green has been rather boom or bust his past four games play where he has two games over double digit fantasy points, including last weeks WR20 finish, and two games scoring less than three fantasy points.

In the last four games he and Christian Kirk have played together, Green has outgained Kirk by 97 Air Yards. He makes for a better tournament play than Kirk based on his volatility and Air Yards.

No. 3) Marquez Valdes-Scantling – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 35.32

Air Yards: 767 (No. 39)
Air Yards Share: 32.8-percent (No. 31)
Unrealized Air Yards: 554 (No. 14)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling continues to top the league in Average Target Distance, seeing 17.4 yards per target. He has also developed a surprising high target floor amassing 10, 9, and 5 targets the past three weeks. Coming off a five-point fantasy performance last week, MVS makes for a great anti-recency bias tournament play.

No. 2) Marvin Jones – DK: $4,600

Air Yards Value Score: 67.20

Air Yards: 980 (No. 24)
Air Yards Share: 30.2-percent (No. 26)
Unrealized Air Yards: 472 (No. 21)

Marvin Jones had perhaps his greatest fantasy accomplishment this week after contributing to Urban Meyer’s ouster in Jacksonville. Hopefully with Meyer out of the picture, this translates into fantasy production for the veteran receiver. He is coming off 13 fantasy point finish last week and is best bet on the Jaguars to make a big receiving play, as he has seen 16 (No. 16) Deep Targets on the season. Occasional tournament exposure is warranted.

No. 1) Courtland Sutton- DK: $4,600

Air Yards Value Score: 100.00

Air Yards: 1,207 (No. 11)
Air Yards Share: 36.4-percent (No. 14)
Unrealized Air Yards: 664 (No. 6)

Courtland Sutton finds himself atop the Air Yards Value List again. After showing potential signs of life posting 107 Air Yards on six targets in Week 13, Sutton finished with only 31 Air Yards and saw two targets last week. He had his worst fantasy performance of the season, posting only 1.9 fantasy points. Despite being tops on this list, you should think long and hard before you plug him into your lineup this week.

Good luck to everyone in Week 15. May all your Air Yards be realized.